A U-turn by the German government: after the planned sale of up to 54 Eurofighter fighter jets to Saudi Arabia failed for years due to Berlin’s veto, German politicians are now considering a delivery after all.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has often caused surprise and even perplexity abroad with statements that are not easy to interpret. On more than one occasion, it was necessary to ask questions in Berlin or wait for a federal press conference to clarify whether her statements were government policy or her personal opinion. Now, however, she seems to have agreed with Chancellor Scholz in advance when she announced in Jerusalem during her trip through Israel that Germany would no longer block the delivery of a further tranche of Eurofighters for the Saudi Air Force. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-bwb385AUE
The German coalition government is thus not only deviating from a basic agreement in its coalition agreement not to supply weapons to participants in the war in Yemen. It is also causing rumblings within its own ranks, for example from Green Party leader Ricarda Lang or SPD foreign policy expert Ralf Stegner (“Saudi Arabia is involved in the war in Yemen and has journalists murdered. That is not a country to which we should be supplying weapons.”).
Irrespective of this Chancellor Scholz reiterated the statements of his Foreign Minister. On 12 July 2023, he had answered a question about possible arms deliveries with a clear “no” and referred to an embargo in place since November 2018 and the “agreement on the handling of arms export licenses and joint programmes in the context of the Yemen conflict”. Scholz said at the time: “Applications for export licenses for Saudi Arabia will be postponed until the end of the war in Yemen.”
The reasons for the now announced U-turn are probably to be found in the triangle between pressure from close allies, the wishes of the German arms industry and, above all, a much tougher geopolitical and Middle East policy since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7. Since that day, Baerbock explained in Jerusalem, Saudi Arabia has been intercepting missiles in support of Israel. has been intercepting missiles fired at Israel by Yemeni Houthi rebels in support of Israel. In contrast to a confirmed launch by an IAF F-35 Adir, it is not known that the RSAF is using Eurofighters to combat the missiles. But apparently it is enough that “Saudi Arabian defensive missiles are currently also protecting Israel”, as German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck emphasized. The situation is ambivalent, but definitely different from five or six years ago. And the peace processes in the region also depend on whether Saudi Arabia continues to be “well-disposed” towards Israelas they say. In any case, the German government has probably come to the conclusion that new Eurofighters on the ground will also strengthen the constantly growing anti-Iran axis, which according to many Middle East experts is a key to sustainable stability in the always troubled region. https://militaeraktuell.at/spatenstich-fuer-erweiterung-des-fliegerhorsts-brumowski/
Clause binding or not?
For the British side, Germany had already broken the original agreements of the Eurofighter project with its blockade: According to the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the four partners – the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain – in 1986, “none of the participating countries will prevent the sale or approval of the sale of products or systems of the program to third parties”. London gave this clause a broad meaning: if one of the partners refused the export license, another could manufacture the components developed by the vetoing country itself. In contrast, the German Chancellery argued that this (old) clause was only inserted in the declaration of intent and not in the production contract and therefore had no binding value. And the replacement of German components in the Eurofighter with British, Spanish or Italian components can be ruled out in view of today’s costs.
54 aircraft for around five billion euros
For months, the Eurofighter partner countries Great Britain and Italy have been putting pressure on Berlin clearly, repeatedly and at the highest level to abandon its blockade stance, which is based on the war in Yemen, the human rights situation and the murder of regime critic Jamal Khashoggi, which was probably committed by the Saudi leadership. Most recently, the Times reported on September 26 last year that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak urged Germany to approve “the follow-up contract for 54 Eurofighters” to the Saudis. Incidentally, Berlin’s blockade was and is only possible because Airbus Aerostructures in Augsburg manufactures the center fuselage sections for all Eurofighters, which are then sent to the respective final assembly lines in the partner countries responsible for a particular export. In this case, the parts would go to the British line at BAE Systems in Warton. This is also where the 72 Typhoons of tranches 2 and 3 (the last 24 aircraft) already delivered to the RSAF by June 2017 (following a corruption investigation by the British Special Fraud Office that was closed in 2006 under Tony Blair) originated.
And then there is the German industry
For the aforementioned plant on the Irish coast, just as much is at stake with the order as for the German supplier plant in Augsburg. The production of assemblies for new Eurofighters must begin around three years before a planned delivery. Together with the 38 Eurofighter Tranche-4s for Germany from Quadriga and the two times 20 for Spain the 120 or so German suppliers would run into turbulence without follow-up orders by 2027 at the latest. The Saudi money is urgently needed to remain in operation and in employment, and also to continue the FCAS mega program (for the UK GCAP). In addition, the French rival to the Typhoon, the Rafale, is to be “stopped” before – as Dassault CEO Eric Trappier indicated in December – a serious commercial campaign to order the French fighter aircraft begins in Riyadh. The UAE – also on Germany’s sanctions list due to the war in Yemen – has now placed an order for 80 aircraft from Dassault aircraft. Incidentally, this embargo was already an issue earlier – also because of Saudi Arabia. In December 2019, the Administrative Court in Frankfurt/Main ruled that a freeze on exports to Riyadh was not legal or too weakly justified. The winner of the proceedings at the time was Rheinmetall MAN Military Vehicles GmbH (RMMV) in Vienna/Liesing, which had sued Berlin because the German government had blocked the export of 90 HX81s from an order of 110 logistics vehicles from 2016. These had been in production since January 2018 and had to be stored until the ruling. https://militaeraktuell.at/ein-blick-auf-die-lage-katerstimmung-fuer-die-ukraine/ Of course, fighter jets are not trucks. But for months, German aircraft manufacturers – above all Airbus boss Michael Schöllhorn – have been lobbying heavily against the previous traffic light export veto. Just last November, an alliance of politicians, trade unions and aircraft manufacturers came together at the Relling-based defense supplier Autoflug, which builds seats for military aircraft and tanks, among other things, to demonstrate for new Eurofighter orders. Exports to the Saudis would have been part of this puzzle from the outset, because they mean a lot of high-tech jobs and added value.
“The earlier refusal of the government in Berlin to approve export licenses for further Eurofighter sales to Saudi Arabia has waned in light of the war in Ukraine.
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Eurofighter-CEO Giancarlo Mezzanatoo
And then there is the Tranche 5, which the industry believes will be needed from 2030 to replace some of the 85 German Tornados still in service.
There is still no commitment or declaration of intent from the “traffic light”, which is why the Airbus Defense & Space plant in Manching on November 15 with around 3,000 employees. There, IG Metall works councils and management jointly called on the German government to order more Eurofighters without delay.
By the way, recently Eurofighter CEO Giancarlo Mezzanatto in an interview with Militär Aktuell saw increasing opportunities for a delivery of the aircraft to the Middle East: “The previous refusal of the government in Berlin to approve export licenses for further Eurofighter sales to Saudi Arabia has waned in light of the war in Ukraine. A three-year spare parts and repair contract for Riyadh’s existing fleet was only signed at the end of 2022, under the current German government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz. So the political scenario has changed quite dramatically, Germany is now much more committed than before. I am optimistic that the development will continue in this direction and also the UK – as the leading nation for Saudi Arabia – is already very active in this direction.”
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