In this series, we take a look at 5 current conflicts, crises and events around the world every two weeks. This time in focus: Iran under pressure, the interruption of Russian gas supplies is freezing Transnistria, the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is proving fragile, Russia is waging a hybrid war against Europe and the UN is considering the future of its blue helmet missions.
Event #1: UN rethinks blue helmet missions
The number of UN peacekeeping missions is shrinking, also in the face of political and financial headwinds. Is the heyday of multilateral peacekeeping over? Diplomats and international officials from the United Nations are currently asking themselves this question in New York. A look at the chaos in Mali clearly shows the weaknesses of such missions. Nevertheless, the UN does not want to completely write off its peacemaking and peacekeeping role. As the think tank International Crisis Group reportsthe member states signed the Compact for the Future in September 2024 – a comprehensive list of ideas for multilateral cooperation. This was accompanied by a request to Secretary-General António Guterres to “review all forms of United Nations peacekeeping operations”.
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Event #2: Fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah
Israeli forces are continuing their withdrawal from Lebanon after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into force on November 27. The ceasefire stipulates that Israel’s forces will withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days. Hezbollah undertook to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River – around 30 kilometers from the Israeli border. As part of the agreement, the Lebanese army will be deployed alongside UN peacekeepers in the border region to prevent a resurgence of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in the future. In order to stabilize the fragile ceasefire, the US envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut again this week. The Saudi and French foreign ministers are also involved in the negotiations on the future of Lebanon, as Al-Monitor reports.
Event #3: Iran under pressure
Following the defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran’s ability to project power in the region had already been significantly weakened. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Tehran has lost another important ally. The power vacuum in Syria is now being filled by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. “Syria is now the linchpin of the rolling back of Iranian influence,” says Iran expert Walter Posch in our “5 questions to” interview.
Event #4: Transnistria freezes
The interruption of Russian gas supplies through Ukraine to Europe on January 1 hit Transnistria particularly hard. The region seceded from the Republic of Moldova in 2001, but has not yet been recognized by any other state. According to the New York Times there is currently no heating or hot water in thousands of households in the Russian-speaking enclave. Until January 1, Russian gas had been provided by Moscow practically free of charge to keep a steel mill and other industries running – and to supply the power plant that delivers electricity to Moldova, according to the US newspaper. The halt to Russian gas is plunging Transnistria into an existential crisis. https://militaeraktuell.at/wanderausstellung-kulturgueterschutz-st-poelten/
Event #5: Russia’s hybrid war against Europe
Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces in 2022 (-> current news from the war in Ukraine), underwater power and telecommunications cables and gas pipelines important to Europe have been repeatedly cut. According to Standard the Finnish transport authority announced on Wednesday that the Russian oil tanker, which was stopped in December 2024 and had damaged undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, had “serious defects”. It may only be put back into operation after appropriate repairs. European security experts warn thatthat Russia is waging a hybrid war against the West. In addition to seemingly random arson attacks, hacker attacks and explosions in several European cities, this also includes the damage and destruction of undersea cables.
Click here for “5 views of the world #017“: What was? What is? What will be?
Topics: European mercenaries in Congo, escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan and Trump’s claims to Greenland.
