In this series, we take a look at 5 current conflicts, crises and events around the world every two weeks. This time in focus: Continuous shelling, intensified rhetoric – is a new Lebanon war looming? Moscow and Pyongyang renew Cold War-era military pact, Israel calls ultra-Orthodox to arms.
Event #1: Israel and Hezbollah on course for war
Until October 7, 2023, a kind of tacit agreement was in place between the Israeli armed forces and Lebanese Hezbollah: Only targets where no major casualties were expected were fired upon. However, since the Hamas attack on Israel, the number of casualties has risen dramatically and tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border have had to leave their homes and apartments because of the shelling.
“in the event of a new war between Hezbollah and Israel, Hezbollah would no longer focus only on the border areas, but would extend its shelling to all of Israel.
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Militäranalyst Brigadier Berthold Sandtner
In recent days, the rhetoric has intensified noticeably, with Israel and Hezbollah emphasizing that they are ready for war. As The Washington Post reports, fears are growing that the border conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could escalate into a war involving large parts of the Middle East. With devastating consequences for Israel too. “Hezbollah would no longer just concentrate on the border areas, but would extend its shelling to the whole of Israel,” says Brigadier Berthold Sandtner in our “5 questions to” interview on the topic. https://militaeraktuell.at/berthold-sandtner-krieg-israel-hisbollah/
Event #2: Putin and Kim strengthen military cooperation
In mid-June, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un renewed a mutual defense pledge from the Cold War era. It is not surprising that this is happening right now: Russia needs ammunition for its war in Ukraine (-> Current news from the Ukraine war), North Korea is prepared to deliver and receives food, fuel and military technology in return. As The New York Times suspects, the deal could also see Moscow support Kim’s pursuit of better-functioning nuclear weapons, missiles, submarines and satellites – a development that is causing concern among America’s Asian allies, particularly South Korea. Beijing is also concernedthat Moscow’s support for Pyongyang – particularly in the area of military technology – will exacerbate the current tensions on the Korean peninsula.
Event #3: New Caledonia in turmoil again
After an uneasy peace with nightly curfews, unrest broke out again this week in New Caledonia. As the Standard reports, several buildings and cars were set on fire in the French overseas territory. In mid-May, violent protests against more than 170 years of French rule brought the territory to the brink of civil war. Seven people died and many more were injured. The trigger was a planned change to electoral law, which would give thousands of French migrants in New Caledonia the right to vote. Opponents of the reform fear that the influx of new (French-born) voters would make a future referendum on the island state’s independence impossible. Macron has since postponed the reform. As The New York Times reports, the Pacific island of New Caledonia, with its huge nickel deposits, is of strategic value to France. Also because China is increasingly gaining influence in the region. An independent New Caledonia, French loyalists argue, could easily fall under Beijing’s sphere of influence.
Event #4: Climate change as a global security threat
During this year’s Muslim pilgrimage Hajj in Saudi Arabia, more than more than 1,300 people due to extreme heat. However, it is not only on the Arabian Peninsula but all over the world that regions are affected by scorching heat, which can be attributed to man-made global warming. “We have the highest concentrations of greenhouse gases in the last three million years. Carbon dioxide traps heat, so the temperature of the planet is rising,” quotes The Washington Post the oceanographer Michael McPhaden. The trend is for heat waves to start earlier in the year and last longer. The fact that climate change is threatening security at both regional and international level was recently highlighted by the UN in a report. These include the effects on food, water and energy supplies, increased competition for natural resources, as well as forced migration and displacement. The NATO has also been incorporating climate change considerations into its political and military agenda since 2021.
Event #5: Historic ruling: ultra-Orthodox must do military service
Israel’s ultra-Orthodox community was previously exempt from military service. On Tuesday, however, the Supreme Court ruled that they too are obliged to serve in the armed forces, reports The New York Times. In Israel, Jewish 18-year-olds, both men and women, must perform years of military service. The question of whether the ultra-Orthodox should be exempt has long polarized Israel. The majority of Israelis are angry about the lack of equal rights. https://militaeraktuell.at/auftakt-zu-miliz-trifft-wirtschaft-in-wien/ The ultra-Orthodox make up only 13 percent of Israel’s population. However, it is a young community with large families. As a result, its members make up an ever-growing proportion of the country’s draft-eligible population – potential soldiers who are urgently needed, not least because of the nine-month war in Gaza and the conflict with Hezbollah. For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition, the court’s decision is a (further) acid test. Netanyahu must now strive to find a legal solution that is acceptable to the ultra-Orthodox parties that support the exemption and his more secular allies who oppose it, or risk losing his government.
Click here for “5 views of the world #004“: What was? What is? What will be?
Topics: Moscow welcomes the shift to the right in France, NATO-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on arms deliveries to Kiev and how they can bring peace and how shockwaves from gunfire harmed US soldiers in Syria.
Click here for “5 views of the world #006“: What was? What is? What will be?
Topics: Joint maneuvers by China and Belarusian troops on the EU’s external border, 75 years of NATO, Houthis endanger ship and internet data traffic in the Red Sea.
