By 2027, the United States expects Europe to have the majority of conventional defense capabilities within NATO by 2027 – from reconnaissance to air defense to weapons systems. According to several sources, Pentagon officials conveyed this message to European diplomats at a meeting in Washington. Many European delegations consider this timetable to be unrealistic.
The required burden-shifting would fundamentally change the security policy structure of the alliance: The US, the alliance’s military anchor since 1949, would withdraw from parts of NATO’s coordination mechanisms if Europe failed to comply, according to US officials.
At the same time, it became clear that Washington is not satisfied with the progress made in Europe since the start of the Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is not satisfied. How the USA intends to measure progress was left open. It is also unclear whether the demand represents the official line of the Trump administration or reflects the position of individual Pentagon departments – there are deep differences in Washington over the future US role in Europe.
European concerns: lack of time and industry
Several European representatives emphasize that implementation by 2027 is not feasible. In addition to political decisions, the European armed forces would above all need time and industrial capacities to replace US capabilities. Many armaments products are subject to massive production backlogs – even frequently requested US systems would take years to be delivered if new orders were placed.
In addition, the US provides unique capabilities that cannot simply be bought, such as highly specialized reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition (ISR), which are critical for Ukraine.
A NATO spokesperson explained that Europe is already taking on more responsibility, but did not comment on the 2027 deadline.
Strategic decisions in the balance
Under President Trump, the course towards Europe and NATO is wavering:
- During the 2024 election campaign, he threatened allies who “pay too little” with no US assistance if Russia attacks.
- At the NATO summit in June, however, he praised European countries for agreeing to raise the investment target to 5% of gross domestic product.
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For months, the US line has oscillated between a tougher stance towards Moscow and a willingness to talk about Ukraine – often without European involvement.
US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau recently emphasized that it is “obvious” that Europe must bear its own defense, adding: “Our government is serious.”
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With the EU’s goal of making Europe capable of defending itself by 2030, two ambitious timelines are now running in parallel – both with high hurdles in terms of air defense, drones, ammunition and cyber capabilities. Even the European target is considered extremely ambitious by experts.
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