On 27 November, the European Parliament confirmed the college of the new European Commission of President Ursula von der Leyen for the term of office from 2024 to 2029. For the first time, an EU Minister for Defense and Space was also nominated in the new Commission: Two-time Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius is considered a “Russia hawk” and is now calling for a tenfold increase in European defense spending.
Andrius Kubilius – known for his rigorous budgetary discipline, which led him to cut his salary by 45 percent as head of government – has in one of his first interviews since taking office a clear focus on defense spending. For the EU’s upcoming seven-year budget, he is calling for defense funding of “not much less than 100 billion euros”. Kubilius described this sum as “ambitious” – and it would indeed be revolutionary: the current EU budget of more than one trillion euros provides only ten billion euros directly for defense measures. Such a significant increase would raise the EU’s defense architecture to a new level and underline the Union’s claim to be a security actor.
“We must be prepared for the possibility of Russian aggression. If we fail in Ukraine, the risk of military aggression against EU member states could increase.
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EU-Verteidigungskommissar Andrius Kubilius
These serious and far-reaching demands illustrate the extent to which the Russian invasion of Ukraine (-> Current news from the Ukraine war) has realigned the priorities of the EU budget. Kubilius emphasized: “We must be prepared for the possibility of Russian aggression. If we fail in Ukraine, the risk of military aggression against EU member states could increase.” He also warned against Russia’s ongoing hybrid attacks, which go beyond conventional military actions: “While we are better positioned in conventional defense, defending the minds of our people remains a challenge.” The statements underline the EU’s urgent need for action, not only in the area of conventional defense, but also in dealing with psychological and information-based threats. https://militaeraktuell.at/bundesheer-container-fuer-luftraumueberwachung/
Trump calls for higher European defense spending
The re-elected US President Donald Trump criticized the in his first interview after the electionaired on NBC on December 8, once again criticized the NATO. “NATO is taking advantage of the US. The European nations don’t buy our cars or our food. At the same time, we are defending them – a double burden for the US,” he explained. Trump emphasized that he had already exerted pressure on NATO countries during his first term of office to push through higher defence spending, which had brought in an additional 600 billion US dollars (around 570 billion euros).
“NATO is exploiting the USA. The European nations don’t buy our cars or our food. At the same time, we defend them – a double burden for the USA.”
Der neue US-Präsident Donald Trump
He made it clear: “If NATO members significantly increase their financial contributions, fulfill their commitments and engage in fairer trade with the US, I will continue to support NATO.” The statements underline Trump’s call for fairer burden-sharing within the alliance and improved trade relations with Europe. Kubilius reacted promptly and emphasized that the real enemy of the EU is Russian President Vladimir Putin – not US President-elect Donald Trump. He had already impressively conveyed this clear message at his hearing in the European Parliament. He received broad support with 54 votes over the required majority of 110 votes. He said he was “hopeful” that the new US administration would recognize the threat posed by an “axis of authoritarian states”, to which he counted Russia, Iran, North Korea and – to a certain extent – China. Kubilius made it clear that the West, including the USA, must take a united stance against these authoritarian powers in order to defend common values and security.
500 billion over the next 10 years
In the course of putting together the new Commission, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has put the financing requirement for defense and for a defense fund still to be set up at 500 billion euros over ten years. This would be “necessary for the modernization of the EU’s defence industry after decades of drowsiness following the Cold War”.
Kubilius warns that financing the ambitious defense plans is a challenge: “‘Finding’ these funds will not be easy, but without them all defense plans remain theory.” He suggests raising the funds by increasing the EU budget, issuing joint debt instruments or relaxing the investment rules for institutions such as the European Investment Bank. A combination of these approaches is also conceivable. He also advocates reviewing the EU budget rules, such as the deficit limit of 3 percent of GDP and the debt ceiling of 60 percent for defense spending. Some EU countries, including Greece (-> Greece doubles its military spending), Poland and Italy, are already calling for defense spending to be excluded from the deficit calculation. Kubilius supports this: “If you asked me, I would say: ‘Yes, we have to do that’.” While Berlin is sceptical about bonds, Poland and the Baltic states are pushing for new joint debt for defense projects. Poland and Greece are also campaigning for the joint financing of a European air defense system. This “European air defense shield” is intended to protect all EU states from missiles, fighter jets and drones. “Europe will only be safe if the skies above it are safe,” wrote Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in a letter to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. https://militaeraktuell.at/12-drohnen-lektionen-aus-dem-ukraine-krieg/
Kubilius outlines paths to a “security union”
Andrius Kubilius calculates that simply achieving the NATO target of 2 percent of GDP (-> NATO discusses significantly higher defense spending) by countries such as Spain, Italy and Belgium would generate an additional 60 billion euros for European security. If all EU member states were to increase their defence spending to 3 percent of GDP, as much as 200 billion euros could be mobilized. However, Kubilius admits that the discussion on financing is still at an early stage. He first wants to present options before the member states start concrete negotiations. “Liquidity alone will not solve the problem of the arms industry,” he emphasizes. “It must first be clear what the funds are to be used for.” Kubilius now has 100 days to develop a White Paper on Europe’s defense needs and the path to a genuine European Defense Union.
