The busy Twitter blogger Suyi控 (aka Partizan_oleg) published an analysis of geo-referenced Russian tank losses based on open OSINT figures on April 11. According to this, the Russian army has lost 467 tanks in the Ukraine war so far. In view of the presumed total of 10,000 Russian tanks, the losses may seem “manageable” – but in fact they are not.

According to a listing of Oryxspioenkop the Russian army had lost almost ten percent of its T-90A fleet (18 out of 187 tanks), 14.3 percent of its T-72B3/B3M fleet (151 out of 1,054), 32.3 percent of its T-80U fleet (60 out of 186) and 29.6 percent of its T-80BVM fleet (21 out of 72) by mid-April. In addition to these documented figures, there are around 150 failures that cannot yet be individually (photographically) assigned, but have been identified, and presumably dozens to hundreds more failures that have not yet been confirmed. Incidentally, this does not only mean tanks that have been shot down, but also tanks that have been abandoned, broken down or captured in some other way. https://militaeraktuell.at/russland-bataillonstaktische-gruppe-im-angriff/ Suyi控 comments: “The flaw in the argument ‘the Russians are doing it with the masses’ is that a maximum of two thirds of the 10,000 tanks reported are actually physically present and of these, many are not (or no longer) in a technical condition that allows them to be operated by armed forces or to be used on a modern battlefield in terms of survivability. In addition, there are simply not enough units and soldiers to operate the vehicles.”

@Ukraine MoD
So far, the loss of almost 500 Russian tanks can be officially confirmed – in fact, Russian losses could be even higher.

In principle, Russian tanks can be divided into four categories:
1) Operational in the standing army, manned by contract soldiers
2) Operational in the standing army, manned by conscripts
3) Stored in weapons and equipment depots to become brigades upon mobilization
4) Stored in a few central bases for the storage of armoured vehicles to become spare parts donors upon mobilization The Russians have a standing army of around 250,000 men. At the end of 2021, the standing army (including VDV and naval forces) operated a total of 2,609 operational tanks according to its own Table of Organization and Equipment (TOE). The Russian Federation has now thrown up to 80 percent of this into the fight in Ukraine with its permanently available armed forces, meaning that up to 2,100 tanks are or have been deployed there.

@Cabal
Many of the Russian tanks that exist on paper are currently rusting away in depots like this one – getting the vehicles back on the road is difficult or even impossible in many cases and in any case involves months of work.

By no means a “scratch”
If you now also consider the fact that Russian formations retain a high percentage of conscripts (can vary depending on the unit) and these – according to Moscow’s repeated assurances – are not allowed to be deployed abroad, then each Russian brigade and regiment can only deploy one or two of three BTGs (BTG = Battalion Tactical Group, each with one tank company). This reduces the total number of tanks deployed in Ukraine (at best) to 1,400 (two thirds of 2,100). If we now put the Russian losses in the first 50 days of fighting into perspective, 33.35 percent (467 of 1,400) of the deployed tanks were lost, which amounts to an enormous bloodletting, as this article makes clear.this article illustrates and could soon massively limit the offensive capabilities of the Russian army. https://militaeraktuell.at/fragen-antworten-zur-russischen-grossoffensive/ But couldn’t Russia compensate for these losses from its still huge tank reserve? With a great deal of effort, this would certainly be conceivable – however, Moscow would probably face the problem of a lack of reserve units relatively quickly. In addition, the only immediately available replacement for the front are the active service and training tanks manned by conscripts in Russia. On paper, there are around 750 of them. However, a good estimate is that at best 90 percent of these are currently operational and the BTGs already deployed – for example around the (not so) new approach in eastern Ukraine/Donbass – must be deducted from this figure. The bottom line is that there are probably no more than 470 to 510 tanks that the Russian army could now add to its BTGs in real terms, which means that Russia will soon have to make do with fewer tanks on the front. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA But where are all the Russian tanks that exist on paper? The answer is: in a total of nine weapons and equipment storage bases, seven of which are located in the Far East. Motorized rifle brigades with reserve personnel could be mobilized from these bases within three to six months. However, as there are no signs of mobilization so far, only individual tanks could be sent to the front as the need arises (depending on the length of the conflict). However, this would considerably weaken Russia’s defense in its Asian region, and it would probably take a good two to three months to “de-mothball” the vehicles and make them ready for use again – assuming all the necessary parts can be found at all, given the flourishing corruption in the country. Regardless of this, there is growing evidence that tranches of the existing Russian tanks are being returned to active service due to the Ukraine operation. For example, the newly expanded 90th Guards Armored Division in Browary recently received T-72A/AVs from the Cold War era (manufactured 1981-84). This would also mean that – either due to the remaining operating hours or the technical condition – not enough newer tanks (than those) could be added and those A versions had to be used.

The rest of the supposed “10,000-tank army” is located in a few “central armored vehicle storage bases” (see also this article), where large numbers of genuine vintage tanks are mothballed. It would certainly be possible to reactivate one or two of these vehicles, but they would have virtually no chance of survival in combat. The majority of them are of the type used by militias and Islamists in Africa. Could Russia replenish its losses with new tanks? The short answer is: No! Ideally, Russia could produce up to 200 new vehicles per year in its tank factories, but production is currently at a virtual standstill due to the shortage of high-tech parts. In addition, 200 new tanks would only be “a drop in the ocean” with losses of 250 to 300 tanks per month.

@Twitter
The infowar on the web is currently also being waged with lots of memes. From a Western perspective, Ukraine has long since won this war.

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