This time, our five questions go to Walter Posch from the Institute for Peacekeeping and Conflict Management at the National Defense Academy in Vienna. We asked the Middle East expert to what extent US policy in the Middle East could change under future US President Donald Trump.
Mr. Posch, what does Donald Trump’s imminent assumption of office mean for the war in Gaza? Can Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expect less criticism from the USA in future?
Initially, Trump’s assumption of office does not mean much for Gaza because Israeli-American cooperation is independent of the respective government. However, judging by Trump’s statements so far and the joy of Netanyahu’s government, less criticism of Israel can actually be expected. Much will indeed depend on whether public opinion in the USA and the West turns against Israel due to the situation in Gaza. So far, this does not seem to be the case or to have any influence on the political elites. In any case, Biden’s threat to cut military aid did not impress the Israelis and key circles in the USA already seem to have resigned themselves to Israel’s future occupation of the northern Gaza Strip.
“Nobody believes that the USA’s political, economic, military and diplomatic support for Israel will be jeopardized under Trump.”
With a view to the Lebanon war, could Trump, in the spirit of “America first”, come to the realization that financial and diplomatic support for Israel and its wars will be too expensive for the USA in the long term?
This attitude does indeed dominate the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, but no one believes that under Trump the US’s political, economic, military and diplomatic support for Israel will be jeopardized. And within US security policy circles, there have always been voices calling for a tougher stance against Lebanese Hezbollah and, like the Israelis, hoping that Lebanese forces will take action against Hezbollah themselves. The fact is that Hezbollah has so far been able to resist and can even attack Israel with its rockets. The USA could also support the international community in the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 which provides for the withdrawal of Hezbollah to the north, away from the Israeli border. However, Israel would first have to cease its attacks on the Lebanese population centers.
In recent months, the USA has endeavored to limit the escalation between Israel and Iran. Could this effort wane under Trump and could the Israel-Iran conflict escalate further with his approval?
That is probably the biggest question that Trump will have to face. After all, the escalation between Iran and Israel has been contained anyway; neither of them has yet used their missile weapons against the civilian population of their opponent. Trump has publicly spoken out against both an Iranian nuclear weapons program and regime change, but in his personnel policy has nominated outspoken hawks who hold Iran responsible for all the problems in the Middle East. In other words, the institutional pressure on the President towards regime change in Iran will increase enormously.
Trump wanted to withdraw all US soldiers from Syria during his first term in office, but in the end around 900 soldiers remained in the country. Could Trump now initiate the final withdrawal?
The withdrawal or retention of US soldiers in Syria is initially a matter for negotiation with Turkey and, to a lesser extent, with Iraq. This is because the Syrian entity AANES (Rojava) is linked to the Sinjar region in Iraq. In both cases, there are contradictory alliances and alliances. A US withdrawal would significantly weaken the dominant Kurdish faction in Rojava and Sinjar.
“The institutional pressure on the president towards regime change in Iran will increase enormously.”
Under Trump, rapprochement between Israel and Arab states was initiated as part of the Abraham Accords. Hamas’ attack on Israel in October 2023 has halted the process for the time being. Could this process be continued in the near future?
A widespread misconception in the West is that the agreement would isolate Iran and exclude it from the region. The fact is, however, that Saudi Arabia and the UAE improved their relations with the Islamic Republic at the same time and in compensation for the Abraham Accord. The agreement was never revoked at the level of the political elite, but it was never popular with the population.
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