According to the latest statements by those responsible, the US Air Force (USAF, -> current news about the US armed forces) will significantly “revamp” its fleet modernization programmes in the coming months and focus entirely on the new “enemy” China.
This announced USAF Secretary Frank Kendall on September 16 during the annual symposium of the Air & Space Forces Association (AfA) annual symposium near Washington DC. His remarks focused on the following three development programs, which are currently under review: The next tranche of “low-cost” autonomous combat aircraft, the collective name for which has now become Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA); the sixth-generation Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platform air warfare system; and a new tanker as the Next-Generation Air-Refueling System (NGAS). In addition, the new B-21 bomber (-> Northrop’s super bomber B-21 flies for the first time).
Kendall: “Our intention is to have concurrent and well-supported responses to the design concepts for CCA, NGAD and NGAS. Prepare for answers in the coming months.” And all of this very obviously has to do primarily with the People’s Republic of China and its growing military might, which is why the US shifted its foreign policy focus to the Pacific region years ago. In this respect, Kendall is in line with US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, who recently stated: “The Cold War pales in comparison. Cold War pales in comparison to the many challenges that China poses to us..”
CCA should act as a “vanguard”
In the exhibition area of the conference, the two contractors selected for the first stage of development of the CCA planned as a companion or “vanguard” – General Atomics Aeronautical Systems and Anduril – displayed scale models of their two autonomous stealth fighters, XQ-67 and Fury respectively, in one place for the first time. “Airworthy versions of both devices will fly for test purposes in 2025 and at least one of them will be in our inventory in significant numbers over the next few years,” said the top political leader of the armed forces. In an earlier statement, he spoke of the acquisition of at least 1,000 units in this context.
According to the USAF, the CAA program is intended to provide “affordable mass” to counter the numerical advantages in fighter aircraft and long-range precision missiles that China enjoys in the Western Pacific. While air-to-air armed CCA are intended to be capable of operating alone in hazardous environments, the USAF still sees their primary role as supporting fighter aircraft, including current models such as the Lockheed Martin F-22 and F-35, the Boeing F-15EX and the planned successor generation NGAD.
NGAD seems to be getting too expensive
The NGAD was conceived before a recent USAF swing toward low-cost autonomy. Kendall describes the original vision as “essentially an F-22 replacement,” referring to the iconic Lockheed stealth air superiority fighter operated only by the USAF and also not given to closest allies Japan and Australia.
In terms of affordability, however, the Pentagon has recently reconsidered its course. As part of an industry tender in 2023, the USAF hoped to select an NGAD contractor by the end of 2024. After Northrop Grumman withdrew from the project, Boeing and Lockheed were considered the remaining finalists. Boeing even went so far as to invest almost two billion euros in the construction of a new factory geared towards the production of even more advanced fighter aircraft than the current ones.
But the current NGAD design proposals, which Kendall describes as “very mature” – testbed demonstrators have reportedly already flown – would still have a projected unit cost equivalent to several F-35s per platform (just under €80 million for the conventional F-35A under recent production contracts). As mentioned, Kendall had said that the NGAD contract would be awarded this calendar year. But that won’t happen now, partly because the prices are too high. Kendall: “We need unit costs that are affordable even in significant quantities.”
To support this process, the US Air Force has put together a committee of senior former military leaders. They are tasked with reviewing and, if necessary, revising the service’s new approach to NGAD. The committee members include three former chiefs of staff and two other experts:
- Natalie Crawford, former top analyst and vice president at RAND, former director of “Project Air Force”,
- General (ret.) David L. Goldfein (Chief of Staff from 2016 to 2020),
- General (ret.) John P. Jumper (Chief of Staff from 2001 to 2005),
- Paul Kaminski (Air Force veteran, stealth expert and former Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology from 1994 to 1997),
- Retired General Joseph Ralston (Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs from 1996 to 2000 and Chief of Air Combat Command from 1995 to 1996), and
- General (ret.) Norton A. Schwartz (Chief of Staff from 2008 to 2012).
U.S. Chief of Staff David W. Allvin said in Washington during his own press conference that the group consists of “a broad portfolio of experts with a mandate to really assess our assessments, to look at the assessments that we’re doing to make sure that we’re really not missing anything in our analysis, how we understand the threat and how we understand the capabilities that are going to be required of our Air Force to meet that threat. Their job is to look at that and give us feedback and insights that they see that will help us do that analysis that we need to do in a relatively short period of time.” However, the group will not make the final decision, Allvin said. He and Kendall will “have the final say on what is proposed to the Office of the Secretary of Defense.” And, of course, Congress will have a say afterward.
Whether this can all be accomplished quickly, however, is uncertain. If a radical change to the NGAD program is required, it would likely mean ending the previous program and starting over with a new “journey” through the Pentagon’s Joint Requirements Oversight Council process. Then it would also have to go through the Office of Management and Budget again and the process would probably not be completed before the 2026 budget submission.
New NGAS station planned
To support NGAD and other first-line platform capabilities, the USAF also needs a refueling jet that is difficult(er) to detect, preferably no longer based on a commercial aircraft, and capable of operating in contested environments with equally or similarly armed adversaries (“near peer adversary”). Kendall explained: “The threats we see are now extending to ever greater ranges. This endangers tankers as well as transport and early warning aircraft, in other words all so-called multipliers. But it’s a particular problem for the aerial refueling of fighter aircraft to extend their combat radius, especially over Pacific distances.”
The USAF’s solution is the NGAS tanker, but little is yet known about it. “We have gone through an evolution in our tanker fleet replacement strategy,” he said. That evolution included a two-year formal analysis of alternative NGAS capability requirements, which Kendall said will be completed soon.
USAF Assistant Secretary Andrew Hunter, who is in charge of procurement, said the analysis will help the service determine capabilities for NGAS procurement. And consequently, the USAF took a step toward developing the new tanker in early September when it issued a request for information (RFI) to industry, but only for unspecified mission systems for NGAS. Systems that, according to Kendall, would also support the operation of the future tanker. With its request, the USAF wants to ensure that the defense industry is involved as early as possible in development, Hunter said, adding that the service is also planning its own request with an eye toward the actual NGAS airframe.
When asked: “The tanker of the year 2040 will not only provide refueling, but will also be a true ‘mothership of the skies’ thanks to its stealth capabilities and swarms of autonomous drones.”
B-21 Raider on course
One new aircraft program that appears to be moving forward as planned is the USAF’s next-generation stealth bomber, the Northrop-Grumman B-21 Raider. While the secretary of state cautioned against expressing too much optimism about new development programs, he says that the progress of the B-21 is encouraging.
The USAF included strict price targets in its B-21 contract with Northrop Grumman to prevent the cost increase that had almost proved “fatal” for the Raider’s predecessor, the B-2 Spirit flying wing. The massive unit cost of this program of almost two billion euros (adjusted for inflation) meant that the USAF only procured 20 of the stealth bombers – at least one of which has since been retired.
The USAF says it is committed to deploying at least 100 B-21s, which Kendall describes as a “significant contribution to the U.S. strategic nuclear deterrent.” Currently, three Northrop Grumman B-21 bombers are undergoing testing – one flight test and two ground tests – as the program aims for a rate of two flights per week. Tom Jones, president of the US defense contractor’s aerospace division, said the program is “starting to launch quite a cadence of flight tests.” The company has managed two tests a week, he said, but neither the company nor the Air Force have said how many flight tests there have been in total so far. In any case, unlike the B-2 Spirit, the B-21 is also to become a daytime operational aircraft.
Kendall would like to continue
Speaking about himself, Kendall said that in his first three years as Secretary of the Air Force, he had pushed for a comprehensive overhaul of the Department. During his keynote address, he stated that he would like to continue working on these efforts during the next presidency through 2025 and beyond. As the political appointee for the Air Force, however, Kendall’s continued tenure will depend on the next president – either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
“What I’m not doing today is giving a farewell speech,” said Kendall during his speech. He then spoke of the importance of the upcoming presidential election and his future. “I hope that I will have the opportunity to continue to serve,” he said. “If not, you can be sure that I will work as hard as I can, for as long as I can, to prepare the Department of the Air Force for a conflict that is not inevitable, but may become more likely as time goes on.”
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