Ukraine’s political leadership knows that every moment of media attention is a good opportunity to raise the issue of its long-awaited accession to NATO. Such an opportunity recently presented itself during the visit of OSCE Secretary General Helga Schmid to Ukraine. In addition to a trip to the breakaway territories in eastern Ukraine, the OSCE chief, who was appointed in December 2020, also held a series of meetings with members of the Ukrainian government.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba seized the opportunity at a joint press conference with the OSCE Secretary General on May 26. However, instead of the usual praise for the transatlantic military alliance, this time it was a lament. Kuleba regretted to the journalists present that his country had not been invited to the NATO summit planned for June 14. He also criticized the fact that the alliance “has not taken any steps since 2008” to implement the so-called “open door policy” promised to Ukraine. Kuleba was alluding to the issuing of the Membership Action Plan (MAP) by NATO. The MAP is the final stage before a country is invited to become a member – it would therefore give Ukraine real membership prospects. Ukraine has been trying to apply for the MAP since 2008, when the members of the alliance rejected Ukraine’s application at the NATO summit in Bucharest. 13 years later, it still does not look as if the NATO states will be able to reach an agreement soon. With the decision not to invite Ukraine to the upcoming summit, the message could not be clearer.

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The government in Kiev is worried about a renewed escalation of the never-frozen conflict over Crimea and Donbass and would therefore rather see their country and their soldiers as part of the NATO alliance yesterday than tomorrow.

Goodbye, hope?
The fact that the Ukrainian foreign minister recently gave free rein to his frustration shows one thing above all: the Ukrainian government is increasingly aware that early NATO membership is much more wishful thinking than a real future scenario. It also knows that time is playing against it. The longer its NATO membership is delayed, the lower its real chances of joining. It was not long ago that – at least from Kiev’s perspective – the dream of NATO membership seemed within reach. When Russia increased its troops on the border with Ukraine in April (Military News reported) and there was at least a theoretical risk of escalation, Kiev hoped that Russia’s military muscle-flexing would prompt decisive action from NATO. President Volodimir Zelensky loudly demanded that NATO seriously consider his country’s accession. “NATO is the only way to end the war in Donbass,” wrote Zelensky on Twitter at the time. It is a slap in the face for Ukraine that Kiev’s pressure has eased before it could really take effect.

What now?
Ukraine’s membership in the foreseeable future now seems to have finally receded into the distant future, if it was ever within reach at all. There is still a lack of consensus within the Alliance regarding the Eastern European country’s membership aspirations. While for Poland and the Baltic states, for example, accepting Ukraine into the alliance would send a clear signal to Moscow, it would be the wrong signal for countries such as Germany or France. Ukraine’s decision in 2019 to enshrine NATO membership as a strategic goal in its constitution has so far done nothing to change this. The main reason for this is that NATO would have to provide military assistance to Ukraine in an emergency in accordance with Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. However, the majority of member states have no interest in being drawn into a military conflict with Russia. This once again brings into focus proposals for alternative models for Ukraine’s foreign policy orientation that have almost been forgotten – such as that Ukraine should commit to neutrality in the sense of military non-alignment, which Austria and Switzerland also campaigned for after the outbreak of the conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

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