Preparations for elections in Libya at the end of the year are in full swing – but whether the polls can actually take place remains uncertain. Does this mean that nation-building in Libya is in danger of failing after Afghanistan?
Libya is due to hold elections in December. However, disagreement between the parties could lead to the end of the peace process. In October 2020, the rival parties in Libya’s civil war agreed on a ceasefire. A transitional government under Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeiba was to prepare elections for December 24 this year. Among the candidates who want to stand for election is General Khalifa Haftar, who controls eastern Libya with his militia. The 77-year-old is a controversial figure, as he wanted to take over the capital Tripoli in a large-scale military offensive just a year ago. Other possible candidates are the former interior minister Fathi Bashagha and Saif al-Islam, a son of Muammar al-Gaddafi, who was overthrown in 2011. However, whether these elections will actually take place is more than questionable. Rifts are once again opening up between the parliament sitting in eastern Libya and the UN-recognized government in Tripoli. In September – three months before the elections – the parliament in Tobruk withdrew its confidence in the government. This was based on allegations of corruption. Several billion US dollars are said to have seeped away. At the beginning of October, the political leaders were still at odds over the legal framework for the elections. It is also unclear whether parliamentary and presidential elections will be held on December 24 as planned or, as suggested by politicians in Tripoli, the president will only be elected after the population has voted on a new constitution. Some observers assume that the current Prime Minister Dbeiba could take advantage of the failure of the elections to remain in power as interim prime minister for longer than originally planned. But even if these elections take place, it will not be easy for a newly elected government. According to UN estimates, there are still 20,000 foreign soldiers and mercenaries from Turkey, Russia, Syria, Sudan and Chad in Libya. In addition, there are dozens of militias in the west and east of the country, some of which control important infrastructure such as Tripoli airport or oil drilling facilities and are constantly exerting pressure on the government. All these internal and external players could prevent the unification of Libya for years to come. There is therefore a great risk that nation-building in Libya will also fail after the defeat in Afghanistan.
