Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates are making friends with arch-enemy Israel, while the new US President Joe Biden is denying Saudi Arabia further support for the war in Yemen. In addition, an alliance against Iran seems to be forming in the region, the consequences of which are not yet foreseeable.
The recent rapprochement between Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, Morocco and Israel came as a surprise. Former US President Donald Trump can take credit for this “coup”; the signing of the so-called “Abraham Accords” represents nothing less than a turnaround in security policy in the Middle East. Israel is no longer “public enemy number one”, the solution to the Palestinian question is no longer a “conditio sine qua non”. This could be explained by Iran’s growing influence – from Lebanon to Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Ten years of war and terror have shaken the balance of power in the Middle East. Despite all the negotiations, sanctions and boycotts, Tehran could not be bent. After the nuclear agreement signed in Vienna in 2015 (JCPOA) also came to a de facto standstill due to the unilateral withdrawal of the USA in 2018, fears in the region are likely to have increased. Saudi Arabia in particular, which is fighting a hopeless war in Yemen, is increasingly feeling the pinch in the face of painful attacks in its own country. What’s more, from the perspective of Israel and the states of the Arabian Peninsula, the USA no longer seems to be a reliable partner. Israel has been a vehement opponent of the nuclear agreement from the outset and is in favor of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program. Saudi Arabia is coming under additional pressure because US President Biden no longer wants to support the war in Yemen. This gives the impression that Iran’s opponents want to take matters into their own hands and see the USA as a supporter rather than the leader of a phalanx against Iran. Biden’s actions in connection with the JCPOA are therefore of great importance. Will he succeed in bringing Tehran back to the negotiating table and persuading it to make further concessions? However, it is highly questionable whether the leadership in Tehran will agree to this in view of the upcoming presidential election – especially as previous experience with the agreement has not been a success story. The hardliners are therefore more likely to set the tone – unfavorable conditions for a rapid resumption of talks. Washington will also be aware of this.
President Biden therefore finds himself in an awkward situation. He will not be able to fulfill the expectations of Israel and the Arab allies, but must not lose them in order not to open the door too wide for Russia and China. A complete withdrawal is also impossible because a military escalation must be prevented, into which the USA would be drawn nolens volens. It must therefore find a line towards Iran that demonstrates its own reliability to its regional partners on the one hand and creates trust in Tehran in the USA’s willingness to negotiate on the other. The USA could therefore try to gain time, as no major agreements are to be expected before the elections in Iran. It is therefore important to send appropriate signals to all actors involved. Apart from this, the US has more pressing issues on its foreign policy agenda with its position towards China and developments in the Indo-Pacific. In view of past experience, however, it would be foolhardy to expect cool-headed thinking and rational action from all the players involved. A storm front may therefore build up over the next few months, a thunderstorm may break out or “just” spring may come to the country.
