One month after the violation of Swedish airspace on March 2 by four Russian fighter jets east of Gotland, the Swedish broadcaster TV4 Nyheter has now revealed that two jets were apparently armed with nuclear weapons. According to the broadcaster and studio guests, the violation was a deliberate act with the aim of intimidating Sweden and influencing the direction of its security policy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rbxa2VsQgl8 Die vier Maschinen – neben zwei Fencer aus den 1980er-Jahren flogen zwei Su-27-Jäger als Eskorte mit – kamen vom russischen Luftwaffenstützpunkt bei Kaliningrad. Aufgrund des Kriegs in der Ukraine ist die schwedische Luftwaffe (Flygvapnet) ohnehin in erhöhter Alarmbereitschaft, fliegt mehr Patrouillen und konnte so sehr schnell vor Ort sein als erkannt wurde, dass die russischen Piloten Kurs auf Gotland nahmen. Die Verletzung des Luftraums dauerte dann nur etwa eine Minute, die vier Maschinen wurden fotografiert und wieder in internationalen Luftraum hinauseskortiert. Bei der offenbar beobachteten Nutzlast könnte es sich um taktische nukleare Freifallbomben RN-28 gehandelt haben. Sie sind – ähnlich der B61-Equivalente der USA in Büchel – jedenfalls noch im russischen Arsenal. Im Juni 2018 berichtete Topwar.ru, dass sechs Su-24M des 37th Mixed Aviation Regiment nach Gwardejskoe auf die Krim verlegt wurden und in Material, das Militär Aktuell von der ukrainischen Mission der OSZE übermittelt wurde, ist, neben anderen damaligen Beobachtungen wegen einer Re-Nuklearisierung von Anlagen auf der annektierten Krim, in Hinblick auf die Su-24M genau diese RN-28-Fähigkeit explizit erwähnt worden.
Swedish Air Force Chief Carl-Johan Edström has now also been questioned about the incident (see video below), but according to TV4 sources, he does not want to confirm or comment further on the carrying of nuclear bombs on the two Su-24M attack aircraft, which was documented photographically by his Gripen pilots at the time. “There is no increased threat to Sweden here and now. In general, it can be said that the weapons on most Russian aircraft are mounted on the outside. However, we are not commenting on exactly how these aircraft were armed at the moment. I would also like to point out that if we had seen an increased threat to Sweden, we would have informed about it. We cannot generally rule out a threat or an attack from Russia. We have analyzed the incident and regard it as a deliberate, unprofessional and irresponsible act. Of course, I cannot rule out a navigational error, but everything indicates that it was a deliberate act, that they wanted to violate Sweden’s borders. Which is very serious, especially as the Russians were a belligerent country at the time and still are,” says Edström. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUlsLUlSexI Not a routine matter
The incident that has now come to light is probably an expression of a clear strategy on the Russian side and could be seen as a signal against Sweden and its changing security policy – which was only triggered by the war in Ukraine. The message could be: We have nuclear weapons and could use them at any time, but according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, this would only actually be the case if Russia’s existence as a nation were threatened. In any case, Russian aircraft along Sweden’s airspace and in the Baltic States have always been equipped with conventional external loads, which are common for tactical aircraft, and therefore it is not a routine matter if one decides to carry those RN-28s or equivalents. After the incident, a Russian representative was called to the Foreign Ministry: “There are established procedures for this type of case. These include summoning representatives of the offending nation to the Foreign Ministry. The procedures were also applied in this case,” the press service of the Foreign Ministry told SVT.
Sweden’s Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist has also spoken out: “The renewed Russian violation of Swedish airspace is of course completely unacceptable. It will lead to a strong diplomatic reaction from Sweden. Swedish sovereignty and territory must always be respected.” By “again”, Hultqvist could be recalling that back in 2013, two Russian Tu-22M3 bombers had already flown unusual maneuvers at night in the Gotland area, which were later were evaluated as typical for attack profiles with nuclear stand-off weapons on the Stockholm region.
No longer truly neutral
It should also be noted – as a possible “trigger” for the Russian “show of force” – that the intrusion of the Russian aircraft into Swedish airspace took place immediately after Sweden’s decision to send military aid to Ukraine, including 5,000 anti-tank weapons. It was the first time since 1939 that Sweden had sent weapons to a country at war. A few days before the details of this incident became known, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson emphasized on 28 March that her country would also intervene militarily in view of a possible Russian threat to other EU states – in a sentence that is also interesting for Austria. “Since we joined the EU, we are no longer truly neutral,” she said after a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. There is an obligation to provide assistance in the EU, and Sweden would clearly also help partners militarily in an emergency. Sweden had not previously been a member of a defense alliance such as NATO, said Andersson. However, there is now a lively domestic political discussion as to whether this should change. This is because the security situation in the Baltic region has been deteriorating for some time. In addition, Sweden will increase its military spending to two percent of economic output, Andersson announced. This is also the target of the NATO countries.
