At the summit in Geneva, the USA and Russia laid the foundations for a more stable and predictable relationship. Only the next few months will show whether the meeting was a success. Cautious optimism is appropriate.
After weeks of preparations, the time had come on June 16: shortly after 1 p.m., the Ilyushin-96-300 presidential plane that had taken off from Sochi landed in Geneva with Vladimir Putin on board. Then everything happened quickly: the Russian president and his delegation, who had been staying at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel (which belongs to a Southeast Asian hotel chain) since the previous day, set off in a motorcade towards Villa La Grange. Just a few minutes after Putin landed, Joe Biden also made his way from the Intercontinental Hotel, where he had been staying with his delegation since the previous day. According to unofficial reports, the American side is said to have insisted on the order of arrival of the delegations in order to prevent Putin from keeping the American president waiting. On site, Swiss President Guy Parmelin welcomed the two statesmen to the “City of Peace” and wished them “fruitful talks” that were in the interests of both countries and the world. Before the talks began behind closed doors, Biden and Putin made an initial statement from the Library of the House. There are many issues in Russian-American relations that require discussion, Putin said, and hoped that the talks would be productive. “It’s always better to meet face to face,” Biden replied. The summer weather made itself felt: The two presidents appeared relaxed and in good spirits. The fact that the US-Russian relationship is nevertheless tense was evident from the atmosphere among the journalists present in the room. As the live broadcast from the library room showed, there was a scrum and a verbal altercation between some American and Russian journalists, and finally the intervention of Russian security forces who tried to keep the group away from the presidents.
A few moments later, the first round of talks began, in which the two presidents were joined by Foreign Ministers Anthony Blinken and Sergei Lavrov as well as interpreters. After around one and a half hours of talks and a subsequent break, the second round of talks began with additional delegation members from both sides. In addition to Secretary of State Blinken, Joe Biden’s delegation included Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland; National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan; Senior Director for Russia at the National Security Council Eric Green; Director for Russia at the National Security Council Stergos Kaloudis; and US Ambassador to Moscow John Sullivan. In addition to Sergei Lavrov, the Russian side was represented by: Putin’s press spokesman Dmitry Peskov; the President’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov; the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration and Special Presidential Envoy for Ukraine Dmitry Kozak; Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov; Russian Ambassador to Washington Anatoly Antonov; the President’s Special Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev; and the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces General Valery Gerasimov. The two rounds of talks lasted just over three hours in total and were therefore shorter than planned. The results of the Geneva summit can be divided into two areas. Strategic stability and diplomatic rapprochement
Firstly, the USA and Russia agreed on a security policy dialog. On the one hand, this involves the strategic stability dialog, i.e. consultations on nuclear and conventional arms control. Experts and diplomats from both countries are now to work out a mechanism with which new conventional and nuclear weapons can be controlled. Another topic on which the USA and Russia are to hold security policy consultations is cyber security. Biden and Putin agreed to start expert talks on cyber security issues. Biden presented Putin with a list of 16 critical infrastructure facilities that must be “off-limit”, i.e. free from cyber attacks. These include government and financial institutions, food and agriculture, the energy, healthcare and transportation sectors.
Secondly, both sides have agreed to allow their ambassadors to return to their respective countries. Three months ago, Russia withdrew its ambassador Anatoly Antonov from Washington after Biden called Putin a “killer” in an interview. When the US imposed sanctions against Russia over the SolarWinds cyberattack, Russia expelled US Ambassador John Sullivan from Moscow. Another topic raised by the Americans was Russia’s military presence in the Arctic. According to Putin, he assured his American counterparts that the USA’s concerns about Russian activities were unfounded. Russia respects international agreements, Putin emphasized to the press. According to his own statements, Russian President Biden also let it be known that Russia was open to cooperation with other countries in the development of the Northeast Passage. The possibility of exchanging prisoners and cooperating on humanitarian aid in Syria was also raised. During his media conference, Biden also announced that Putin had expressed the hope that the US presence in Afghanistan would remain in place and declared Russia’s willingness to offer “assistance”. In a joint written statement after the meeting, both sides reaffirmed their intention to continue the bilateral dialog on strategic stability and underlined their satisfaction with the extension of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (NEW START) agreed earlier this year. The foundations for future arms control and risk reduction measures are to be laid, the brief statement added. In separate press conferences, both Putin and Biden emphasized that the talks had been “constructive” and that there had been no hostilities. President Biden emphasized that relations between the US and Russia must be “predictable” and “stable”, and that both sides should work together despite numerous differences.
Red lines
At the same time, Putin and Biden used the Geneva summit to clearly communicate their countries’ interests and present their opposing points of view during their individual press conferences. One issue on which the US and Russian views differ widely is human rights. Putin made it clear that these are internal Russian affairs in which no interference from the West is desired and accused the USA of double standards. From the Russian perspective, the Ukraine crisis is also an issue that does not need to be discussed. Putin once again made it clear that the solution to the Ukraine crisis must be based on the Minsk agreements, period. There is also “nothing to discuss” when it comes to Ukraine’s NATO membership, the Russian President emphasized. President Biden, in turn, emphasized the USA’s commitment to human rights and declared that the topic would always be on the agenda of bilateral contacts. The US President also took a clear stance on cyber security. Biden emphasized that the USA has significant resources in this area and is prepared to use them if necessary. No illusions and pragmatic
It was clear from the outset that there would be no breakthrough in Geneva in terms of a new start in relations. The USA and Russia have long had no illusions that confrontation can be replaced by peaceful coexistence. The points of contention are numerous and trust is low.
However, the two nuclear powers also know that in the event of an escalation, there would be no winners, only losers. The Geneva summit was therefore primarily about bringing the constantly escalating spiral of escalation to a halt and bringing “predictability and stability” to US-Russian relations, as Joe Biden put it at the press conference following the meeting. This realization is shared by the Russian side. A few weeks ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at the meeting with his American counterpart Anthony Blinken on the sidelines of the Arctic Council Ministerial Conference in Reykjavik that “the unhealthy situation” in Russian-American relations had to be ended. This is exactly what happened in Geneva: Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin agreed on measures to ensure that the situation does not spiral out of control. At the same time, both sides communicated their own strategically important interests to each other and pointed out “red lines”. The following statement by Joe Biden sums up the content of the meeting: “A clear relationship” must be established, said Biden after the bilateral talks. He went on to say that it was “not about trust, but about self-interest”. The sober and pragmatic approach of both sides was clearly reflected in the course of the meeting: there was no joint meal, no joint press conference. There was no exaggerated flattery. Instead, there were serious discussions about what needed to be done together. The punctual appearance of the Russian president, who is usually late, underlined the seriousness with which the matter was approached. What remains
The Geneva summit showed that the USA and Russia want to show more pragmatism in order to minimize the potential for tensions to escalate. However, it also became clear how strongly both sides defend their national interests and how unwilling they are to deviate from their own position in favor of a compromise. As far as the dialog on strategic stability is concerned, difficult negotiations can therefore be expected, especially as there are considerable differences between the two sides on arms control. The next few months will show whether the mere revival of the strategic dialog and diplomatic rapprochement has not already achieved the maximum of what is possible. For no sooner has the summit ended than new tensions are emerging: a few days ago, Russia informed the remaining parties to the Open Skies Treaty of its withdrawal; the USA, for its part, has announced that it will impose further sanctions against Russia in light of Navalny’s poisoning.
