Russia is sending large numbers of troops to its western border, NATO is practising the defense of Europe, China is rapidly upgrading its nuclear arsenal and the USA is reviving its alliance with Japan, Australia and India. The sabre-rattling is getting louder and louder around the world and fears of a new Cold War are growing. An analysis by former security policy expert Brigadier General Walter Feichtinger.
The Cold War between the USA and the Soviet Union (SU) is still a bad memory for many. The era after the Second World War until the collapse of the Soviet Union was characterized by the ideological conflict between the democratic and communist systems. The world was divided into two blocs and each wanted to expand its own sphere of power and contain or push back the influence of its opponent. This also included proxy wars such as in Korea, Vietnam or in African states. Both sides also produced tens of thousands of nuclear warheads in order to be able to guarantee the destruction of the opponent, at least through a second strike, should the worst come to the worst (Mutual Assured Destruction). This nuclear deterrent remains a core element of defense policy considerations to this day. In military terms, the bipolar world order was reflected in the form of NATO and the Warsaw Pact (dissolved in 1991). Fortunately, however, we were spared a major confrontation with a military showdown. Are there similar developments today? Yes, but the initial situation is more complex. The bipolar world order has become a multipolar system with the superpowers USA and China and the globally ambitious Russia. Attempts to form a bloc can already be seen, with the USA striving for an “alliance of all democratic states”, while China presents itself as the leader of a world community of destiny and advocate of the developing and emerging countries. Russia does not play a special role in this, but it has entered into a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with China. In addition, Beijing and Moscow pursue the same authoritarian style of rule. Nevertheless, the two countries are far removed from a military alliance or a mutual assistance pact. Europe is bound by NATO and faces an aggressive Russia on the one hand, while the USA and East Asian countries expect more involvement from Brussels in the Indo-Pacific on the other.
“The new Cold
War is significantly
more multifaceted than the old Cold War!
”
In terms of defense policy, the arms race has been accelerating for years. China is catching up strongly with the USA, even if it still spends significantly less in nominal terms. Recent reports of a rapid increase in its nuclear arsenal by 2030 (from the current 200 to 1,000 warheads) suggest that Beijing is increasingly focusing on nuclear deterrence in addition to modernized armed forces. It also wants to push the US navy out of the South China Sea, to which China lays sole claim. Washington, on the other hand, has revived its security cooperation with India, Australia and Japan (QUAD) and formed a new alliance with the UK and Australia (AUKUS). This is directed against China’s strengthening in the West and Indo-Pacific and pursues a clear containment strategy. The elements of a new – now more multi-faceted – Cold War are thus clearly recognizable. Cyber attacks and fake news to destabilize potential opponents are also part of the strategic repertoire.
Arms control to contain this development, on the other hand, is a lost cause. We can only hope that – as was the case back then – all players will draw imaginary red lines to prevent a “hot war”.
