In recent weeks, Moscow has built up such a strong troop presence on the border with Ukraine as was last seen before the start of the war in Ukraine in 2014. There is therefore concern in the West about a renewed escalation of the never-frozen conflict over Crimea and Donbass.

The deployment of large numbers of Russian troops to the Russian-Ukrainian border following reconnaissance flights by HALE UAV MQ-4B Global Hawk, US Navy P-8 Poseidon and RAF RC-135W Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft has raised fears of an escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and the pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country. According to the findings of Thomas Bullock, a specialist in the evaluation of open sources as well as aerial and satellite images at Jane’s and the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) organization, Russian troops have been deployed in an area up to 250 kilometers from the Ukrainian border in the Voronezh and Rostov regions and in Crimea.

@Twitter
Numerous images on social media also document the Russian troop deployments and concentrations in the border region with Ukraine.

More Russian troops than at any time since 2014
According to the report, Russia has built up a stronger troop presence on the south-western border than at any time since the start of the conflict in the region seven years ago. “Russia now has thousands more troops on the border with Ukraine than at any other time since 2014,” Jen Psaki, spokeswoman for President Joe Biden, told journalists on April 8. The USA is “increasingly concerned about escalating Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine”, Psaki continued. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his French and German counterparts on April 9 reiterated their support for Ukraine, which is facing this buildup of Russian military forces and Russian-backed separatists. Ms. Psaki spoke clearly of “clear Russian provocations”, but only the USA is supplying weapons to Kiev. The Ukrainian military rejected Russia’s claims of alleged preparations for its own attack on the separatist areas in eastern Ukraine. One fact, however, is that the ceasefire negotiated and regularly extended by the OSCE (Trilateral Group) expired on March 31 and has not yet been extended. Military clashes between pro-Russian fighters and the government army in eastern Ukraine have been intensifying again since mid-February. Kiev and the West blame the pro-Russian fighters and Moscow for the escalation of the situation. At the end of March, several Ukrainian soldiers were killed near the village of Shumi and at Easter another Ukrainian soldier was shot dead by snipers opposite Donetsk airport. Of particular concern is the fact that the Voronezh region does not border on the self-proclaimed separatist republics, but on the Ukrainian-controlled part of the Luhansk region. This indicates “an offensive character of the troop movement”. At the same time, however, it is emphasized that there are no signs that Russian troops are directly preparing for an invasion of eastern Ukraine.

Moscow would not remain inactive
Russia also emphasizes that the troop deployments are only major “control exercises” in view of the seven NATO manoeuvres planned for this year, for which preparations must be made. At the same time, however – unlike in 2014 – no secret is being made of the new troop deployments. And in the meantime, there is also a threat of military intervention to allegedly “protect its citizens” (as in the de facto annexed Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, 639,000 Russian passports were issued to the local population, the rouble is the means of payment and Russian is the official language). “In the event of a flare-up of hostilities, Russia will not stand idly by and watch a possible human catastrophe à la Sebrenica,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Interfax agency in Moscow on April 9. He admitted that there was a concentration of Russian troops in the region “because the country’s security is at stake. We are now seeing an unprecedented escalation of tensions, fueled by external forces outside Ukraine. This is causing concern,” Peskov claimed. Further developments will determine what measures Russia takes to ensure its security. Russian President Vladimir Putin naturally blamed Kiev and criticized “their provocative actions”, which had led to an aggravation of the situation along the front. Ukraine must “strictly adhere to the agreements previously made”. In Putin’s view, this includes direct dialog with the separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions and an autonomous status for the region. However, the Ukrainian side vehemently rejects both.

@Kremlin.ru
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov: “We are now seeing an unprecedented escalation of tensions, fueled by external forces outside Ukraine. This is causing concern.”

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also warned Interfax on April 12 against Western arms deliveries to Ukraine. “We call on all responsible countries with which we are in talks, including Turkey, to analyze the constant belligerent statements of the Kiev regime. We warn them not to fuel these militaristic sentiments.” The mention of Turkey probably concerns recent deliveries of Turkish Bayraktar combat drones, which became known in the “resounding” deployment by Azerbaijan over Karabakh last October (Military News reported). Ukraine has had this device in its inventory since the end of 2019. According to the Ministry of Defense in Kiev, further contracts for the delivery of such combat drones, including ammunition, were concluded last December. Lavrov also criticized the deployment of two US warships to the Black Sea, announced by Turkey for the Bosporus transit by 4 May. “We are always asked, what are you doing east of Ukraine? That’s Russia, we live there! But the question remains unanswered as to what the US wants there, thousands of kilometers away from its own territory.”

Units and equipment found in detail
Against this backdrop, various evaluation specialists refer to dozens of video recordings and photos showing multiple large-scale transports of Russian military equipment – often again with the license plates pasted over. As a result, military equipment was unloaded at two stations in the region in order to be transported onwards to the training area in Pogonovo. Satellite images, for example, support the CIT report: they show that hundreds of units of military equipment arrived at the test site between the end of March and Easter.

@MoD Ukraine
The Ukrainian army also has Turkish Bayraktar combat drones in its arsenal.

On April 8, Jane’s identified at least fourteen Russian ground forces units that have moved or are moving into the area of operations east of Ukraine and Crimea since the end of March. These are an influx of Central Military District troops from the 74th and 35th Motorized Brigades, the 120th Artillery Brigade and the 6th Tank Regiment, equipped with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and long-range artillery including 2S19 MSTA-S 152mm self-propelled guns. In addition, thermobaric TOS-1A multiple rocket launchers (MRLs) and BM-27 Uragan 220mm multiple rocket launchers that entered Voronezh by rail. Jane’s personnel also recognized Iskander short-range surface-to-surface missile systems, likely belonging to the 119th missile brigade from the Sverdlovsk region. A staging area equipped with the P-260T Redut-2US intelligence complex and a field hospital has been set up at a training area south of the city of Voronezh. P-260T Redut-2US is a remote communication system at army level that is not used at battalion or brigade level. It shows the scope of the operation as a further indicator.

Even the 76th Airborne Division from Russia’s northern military district – or parts of it – is said to be on its way to the Crimean peninsula. This is an elite unit that is already known from 2014 in eastern Ukraine. When the war broke out in Donbass, it caused unrest in its northern Russian garrison city of Pskov – 1,500 kilometers away – when a number of fallen soldiers suddenly had to be buried there rather quietly and secretly.

@US Embassy in Kiev
Discharge of the infamous “tank killer” FGM-148 Javelin in Kiev in June 2020. The anti-aircraft guided missiles are specially designed to destroy tanks.

In Crimea and the neighboring Krasnodar regions, troops and equipment have been similarly deployed, including BMP-3 IFVs and 2S4 Tyulpan 240-mm mortars on tracked chassis. These even came from units of the Russian Southern Military District, which were stationed hundreds of kilometers away in the southern and western Caucasus. The Russian Ministry of Defense – belatedly – described the transfer as “control exercises” for the Southern Military District and the Black Sea Fleet and later declared national “verification control exercises” for the entire military. It also appears that the units stationed in Voronezh, the Southern Military District and east of Crimea have indeed begun training exercises. Current indicators also suggest that the armed forces stationed on the border are not in an offensive posture. However, this could change if Russia moves more forces to the Ukrainian border. Jane’s has also identified the movement of army air defense systems into the Voronezh region, which have not yet been observed in previous movements. While there is a strategic air defense unit in Crimea, only very sporadic tactical air defense equipment such as Tunguska or Pantsir have been verified, which have mobile army units to cover.

Warships overland to the Black Sea
According to a confirmed media report, Russia is even moving several artillery and landing ships from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea, where Ukraine and other countries are located. In detail, the Russian Navy is sending ten ships from the naval flotilla squadron in the Caspian Sea over land to the Black Sea in a considerable effort to strengthen the amphibious forces of the Black Sea Fleet there. These are probably Project 11770 or Serna-class, tank landing craft (100 tons, a T-72/80/90 battle tank) and “artillery boats”, a term that refers to Project 1204 or the Shmel-class gunboats. An April 8 press release stated that “the Caspian Flotilla ships will join their Russian Navy counterparts in the Black Sea to conduct exercises focused on testing their readiness to counter naval and air attack forces.” Russia’s Southern Military District, which includes the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla, announced on April 2 that there would be major upcoming readiness exercises involving some 15,000 troops. It should also be noted that two landing ships of the Black Sea Fleet are operating in the Mediterranean and can be easily redeployed.

Possible actual reason: water?
There have been a number of reports in recent months that the long-known water shortage in Crimea has recently reached crisis proportions. The fact is that Ukraine built dams to block the peninsula’s water supply after the Russian armed forces took control of the peninsula in 2014. As the Crimean reservoirs have also dried up, this is obviously causing immense difficulties for the inhabitants. Seven years ago, Ukraine dammed the “North Crimean Canal” to the Dnipro River, the source of almost 90 percent of the region’s fresh water. Cut off from this, the entire region has been thrown back to the time before the 1960s, when much of the area was still dry steppe. Add to this unusually high temperatures last year, as well as years of underinvestment in pipes and boreholes – and the fields are dry. Water has even been rationed in the capital Simferopol and elsewhere, and the Black Sea fleet is said to have its own cisterns. Without an agreement with Ukraine – which emphasizes that it will only resupply Crimea with water when it comes back under its control – Russia would have to seize (i.e. occupy) a considerable part of the south-eastern territory and thus create physical access to natural freshwater sources.

@Rosoboroneksport
The Serna-class landing craft (“Project 11770”) can each carry one main battle tank and up to 60 fully equipped marines and move them quickly from A to B.

What is Europe doing?
The EU Commission in Brussels has so far remained silent on the developments. Foreign affairs representative Josep Borrell seems to have “disappeared”, and the two bosses Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen are battling for sovereignty of interpretation in foreign policy, vaccine contract centralism plus its delivery mishaps and the “sofa gate” at the meeting between EU leaders and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emanuel Macron – the two protagonists of the “Minsk Agreement” – are also keeping a low profile. Merkel recently warned “both sides to exercise restraint” and telephoned President Putin to demand a “withdrawal of Russian troops or at least a halt to the redeployments”. Since then, calm has prevailed, which is usually not a good sign. Merkel and Macron have so far been the driving forces behind a peace solution, or at least a repeated calm. Without Minsk, however, the EU would be largely locked out of the conflict resolution, while the USA or NATO could take “command”.

Conclusion
There have already been repeated “off-on spikes” in Russia’s military activities near Ukraine’s eastern border in the past – also documented by the OSCE in the form of repeated and severe interference with the GPS signal of its unmanned means. The timing of the current developments surrounding the expiry of the ceasefire is nevertheless remarkable. The very visible and not covert build-up of Russian forces in areas along Ukraine’s borders could – as Russia claims – be intended as a deterrent to a new Ukrainian offensive against the separatists in the Donbas. However, it could also mark the beginning of a new round of large-scale fighting in eastern Ukraine. There is a distinct possibility that Russia is attempting to change the status quo in areas currently occupied by separatist Donetsk and Lungansk elements in order to exert additional pressure on the government in Kiev. In any case, the number and type of forces deployed, as well as the technique and rhetoric emanating from the Kremlin, point to a possible, or at least greater, crisis than usual. If not an escalation of the conflict, which has already claimed around 13,000 lives. The aforementioned redeployment of US warships to the Black Sea also fits the picture of escalation. According to this report the two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Donald Cook and USS Roosevelt are already on their way. Here further information on the troop concentration can be found here.

Update from April 22: According to this report the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced that the deployment of troops in areas along the Russian border with Ukraine will end soon and the majority of the armed forces will return to their garrisons.

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