With hypersound: race for the new superweapons

China and Russia are already testing hypersonic weapons, the USA wants to follow suit as quickly as possible and other countries are already conducting intensive research into the new weapons technology. Is the world at the start of a new arms race? Faster, more precise and more destructive. These maxims have been driving the development of new weapon systems for thousands of years. With their range and penetrating power, crossbows and longbows heralded the slow decline of chivalry, submarines made surprise attacks in the vastness of the ocean possible and bombers carried death and destruction from the front to far into the hinterland. Hypersonic weapons are likely to trigger a similar revolution – at five to ten times the speed of sound, they are said to be able to approach their targets at comparatively low altitudes and cause enormous destruction. It is therefore no wonder that a new arms race for the new technology has broken out worldwide in recent years.

Leading the way: Russia – at least if President Vladimir Putin has his way. As reported in Militär Aktuell #2/2019 under the title “Putin’s wonder weapons”, it was the Russian president who first drew the attention of a wider public to the new category of weapons last year, leaving no doubt about his country’s pioneering role. “The USA withdrew from the ABM Treaty (note: arms control treaty to limit missile defense systems) because it believed that it could protect itself from a strategic threat with a shield. We have taken a different approach: We have not invested tens of billions in such a system, but have developed offensive weapons that can defeat any defense system, thereby maintaining the strategic balance. Nobody but us has hypersonic missiles today and until other countries develop such systems, we will come up with something new.”

“Nobody but us has hypersonic missiles today and until other countries develop such systems, we will come up with something new.”

Vladimir Putin

However, Putin’s announcement did not come as a complete surprise. Research into hypersonic technologies has been going on for decades, particularly in the space sector. It stands to reason that at some point the military will also jump on the 6,000 to 18,000 km/h bandwagon and invest in the technology. They see it as both a weapon and a reconnaissance tool. The thermal challenges of metallurgy and intelligent materials, drives and the miniaturization of control components have therefore long been investigated in hypersonic wind tunnels. Depending on the technology and the type of deployment, a distinction is made between boosters or air-launched systems, with their own air-breathing propulsion (such as so-called scramjets), operating in airspace or non-propelled missiles and warheads that are initially carried by a ballistic missile and can then glide through the upper atmosphere in an undulating path over thousands of kilometers.

Back to Vladimir Putin, who in his perception of Russia’s development status was probably referring primarily to the Avangard (glider on missile stage, project 4202/Yu-74) and 3M22 Tsirkon (sea-based) systems, which have allegedly already been successfully tested several times but have not yet been shown publicly. The Kh-47M2 Kinschal air-launched missile developed from the SRBM Iskander ground-to-ground ballistic missile, which was flown over Red Square under two MiG-31BMs in 2019 and is now said to be stationed in several military districts, has already been shown. What Putin ignored: The progress that China has recently made in this area. Last year, the public was able to marvel at several units of the new DF-17 HGV hypersonic glider at the big Beijing parade, and further systems are in development. Many experts now see China on a par with Russia in the hypersonic race. And the USA? It seems to be lagging behind Moscow and Beijing for the time being. A few years ago, the USAF’s X-51 Waverider project reached Mach 5 several times after being released from a B-52, but it never became an operational weapon. Now the USA is pushing ahead with several projects at the same time, most of them in so-called “black programs”, of which hardly anything leaks out. A table from the Defense Department recently listed seven different hypersonic missiles, weapons and gliders with a budget volume of almost eight billion euros until 2024. In February, a successful test of a Common Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) from Kauai/Hawaii was announced. Another project with up to Mach 20 is called the AGM-183A Advanced Rapid Response Weapon (Arrow), carrying tests on B-52s have been photographed and extensively illustrated by developer Lockheed Martin (Military News reported).

Apart from the “big three”, Japan (anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile), India (HSTDV on Agni-1) and the UK (SABRE from Reaction Engines) also have studies, plans and research into hypersonic weapons underway. However, with the exception of an initial failure in India, no real objects have yet been tested outside of wind tunnels in these countries and so the focus of most military forces there, as elsewhere, is currently primarily on considerations for defense against hypersonic offensive weapons. Due to the aforementioned properties and the inherent potential, new systems and processes need to be investigated and developed. This includes the use of automation and artificial intelligence in corresponding research projects, for example to calculate interception possibilities and times. Conclusion: A symposium at the German Institute for Defense and Strategic Studies (GIDS) in Hamburg at the end of 2019 showed just how topical the subject has become. The GIDS and the Air Force Faculty of the Bundeswehr Command and Staff College had invited participants to discuss the topic of “Effects and Threats of Hypersonic Weapons on the Existing Air Defense Architecture” and the assembled experts were primarily concerned with one question: Will the new technology become a “game changer”? So do hypersonic weapons – like gunpowder, tanks or cyber technologies before them – have the potential to turn the strategic thinking and actions of the military upside down? Does this mean that all the current rules of the game have to be rewritten

“Do hypersonic weapons have the potential – like gunpowder, tanks or cyber technologies before them – to turn the strategic thinking and actions of the military upside down?”

The answer is yes. If the technology delivers what it promises, the existing concepts of air and missile defense will be obsolete from one day to the next. Hypersonic missiles are not only fast, they can also be controlled – unlike intercontinental ballistic missiles, they do not follow a predictable trajectory. What’s more, they can fly significantly lower than ballistic systems, which makes them difficult for radar systems to detect due to the curvature of the earth. This makes it difficult or even impossible for individual states to defend against them. Defense solutions in a network or within an alliance such as NATO appear to be more promising, which means that hypersonic weapons are likely to have a lasting impact on the international security architecture.