On April 30, the communist People’s Republic of Vietnam commemorated the 50th anniversary of its victory over the USA with a large Soviet-style parade in Ho Chi Minh City – including a historic Vietcong marching block in the so-called “black pyjamas”. At the same time, various media citing the US portal 19fortyfive.comthat Hanoi is showing interest in acquiring F-16 fighter jets from the USA.
Sounds unlikely? Yes! According to several unnamed sources, Vietnam and the USA are said to have agreed in principle on a purchase after lengthy negotiations. This is not yet official – but apparently quite realistic. What does that mean?
Striving for Trump’s goodwill
A purchase of US fighter jets would tie Vietnam closely to the USA in terms of foreign policy – a remarkable political turnaround for a former war opponent from the 1960s and 1970s. The country would be dependent on Washington’s goodwill in the event of defense, especially for the supply of spare parts and ammunition. The communist party leadership would therefore have to think carefully about how to deal with domestic political resistance, counter-revolutionaries or democracy movements – repressive action could jeopardize the supply of US spare parts or even lead to a complete breakdown of the systems.
Vietnam was also one of the first countries to report to Washington after Donald Trump announced his controversial tariff war. Due to its high export quota to the USA – such as solar panelstextiles or Nike products – the country is massively affected. Politically, it therefore makes perfect sense to take a “benevolent” position through arms deals with the USA. In a geopolitical context, such deals could be interpreted as a measure to secure prosperity and economic stability – and therefore as indirect support for the communist regime.
No security policy risk for the USA – on the contrary
A future war in Vietnam would almost certainly not be directed against the USA or its allies. Rather, China – also communist and the main focus of the Trump administration – remains Vietnam’s traditional rival. The enmity goes back over a thousand years historically and more recently found expression in the border war of 1979 and in current tensions in the South China Sea near the Spratly and Paracel Islands. Chinese oil rigs in the Vietnamese Economic Zone (EEZ) also contributed to the escalation. For Washington, this is a classic case of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
Another reason for Vietnam is to distance itself from its previous main weapons supplier, Russia. The dependency is high – from T-90 tanks and Kilo-class submarines to artillery, air defense and, of course, combat aircraft. The latter – such as the Sukhoi Su-27SK and Su-30MK2V – are increasingly causing maintenance problems, while the Su-22 bombers are already over 30 years old. Some aircraft have already been taken out of service. Spare parts and new maintenance contracts from Rosoboronexport or UAC/Sukhoi require high advance payments – but their delivery is uncertain, also due to Russia’s increasing dependence on China and its warfare in Ukraine (-> current news from the Ukraine war).
In addition, Vietnam is threatened with sanctions from the EU and the USA if it continues to purchase Russian arms. Doubts about Russia as a partner have increased considerably in Hanoi since 2014 and especially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
How many F-16s – and in which version?
There are still questions regarding the possible number and version of the aircraft. Based on previous fleet sizes, at least 24 F-16 jets could be procured – possibly even significantly more. A package deal is also being discussed, which could also include C-130J Hercules transport aircraft. It is also unclear which version of the F-16 is to be delivered. Older aircraft are hardly available – they have mostly been sold on (for example from Portugal to Romania, the Netherlands to Chile and Ukraine) or converted into target drones.
Although newly built F-16V Block 70/72s from Greenville are technically state-of-the-art (including AN/APG-83 AESA radar), they are expensive and take several years to deliver – as current orders from Bahrain, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Taiwan show. The delivery of modern radar systems to a communist regime that still has close relations with Russia could also be politically problematic for the USA.
The armament is even less clear: the F-16 is largely ineffective in air combat without modern AIM-120C AMRAAM airborne radar seeker weapons – a problem that is currently also being seen in Ukraine. If Vietnam does not receive this weaponry, the deal is likely to fail. A restriction to obsolete AIM-7 Sparrow missiles – as in the case of Egypt – is considered unlikely. In such a scenario, European alternatives from Dassault (France) or Saab (Sweden) would probably be quickly deployed.
If the reports from 19fortyfive.com or The Diplomat are true and a treaty is indeed already being prepared, Vietnam would (have to) pursue a much more American foreign policy in the future than it has to date. This would be half a “revolution” for Hanoi – a long way since April 30, 1975 – and a considerable gain in prestige and influence for the USA. Together with initiatives such as Quad (-> Quads alliance against China is forming) and AUKUS this would create another pillar of the anti-China strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.
