The current geopolitical situation is reminiscent of a real-life game of Risk. Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump appear to be making strategic moves to expand their global spheres of influence.
In classic “Risk”, each player is given a secret mission at the start, which often clashes with the objectives of other players, leading to protracted conflicts over certain regions. The current geopolitical maneuvers, in which agreements are made to gain strategic advantages, have a similar effect. For example, Trump and Putin have started negotiations on the future of Ukraine (-> current news from the Ukraine war) without involving European partners or the Ukrainian government, which could jeopardize the European security order.
While such strategies can lead to victory in the game “Risk”, they have far-reaching consequences for peace and stability in the real world. However, if you don’t care about these consequences, the strategy may also lead to victories in real life.
Suppose Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump had recently talked about how easy it would be to shape the world if they could each gain influence without having to put up much resistance. If everyone could simply snatch up regions without having to fear any consequences.
In this scenario, Putin would have claimed full control over large parts of Ukraine. Over the three Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Possibly also over Scandinavia and other countries in Eastern Europe. And in return, the USA could annex Canada and Greenland. Possibly move the border with Mexico a little to the south, perhaps even take Gaza. Xi Jinping’s desire for Taiwan is almost modest in comparison.
Sounds utopian? Of course! But is it still conceivable? At least not out of the question? No, not at all. If you think about it calmly, many of the latest developments could suddenly make sense against this backdrop: The rapprochement between Russia and America, the exclusion of Europe from crucial negotiations or the meeting between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Szelensky degenerated into an open dispute.
But reality is of course more complex than a game. Such geopolitical steps would have a profound impact on global stability – and not least on millions of human lives. But will they ultimately outweigh the billions of euros in potential extraction of raw materials and rare earths?
The next few days are likely to provide an answer to this. In any case, Donald Trump announced “big things” for tomorrow night. What does he mean by that? Speculation! A withdrawal from the UN and from NATO, as recently demanded by his comrade-in-arms Elon Musk recently called for? Or even more?
