US report recommends higher defense investments

The strategy of the United States is to be able to win a potential war against a highly armed opponent, while pursuing a policy of deterrence against a possible second high-value opponent. However, a 145-page report by the Strategic Posture Commission of the US Congress casts doubt on the possibilities of pursuing this strategy. Nevertheless, under President Joe Biden, there is currently a strategic assumption in the USA that the existing nuclear arsenal is sufficient as a deterrent. Against the backdrop of tensions with China over Taiwan and other issues and the escalating tensions with Russia over Moscow’s invasion of Ukrainethe bipartisan committee of six Democrats and six Republicans, established in 2022, was tasked with identifying long-term threats to the US and proposing appropriate changes to the armed forces. According to the committee, the USA must prepare for possible simultaneous wars with China and Russia between 2027 and 2035 by expanding its conventional armed forces and strengthening alliances, as well as improving its modernization and nuclear weapons development programme.

For the Commission’s recommendations (see also video) include the deployment of additional tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and Asia. In addition, more new B-21 stealth bombers (than the planned 100 aircraft) and more (than the planned twelve) Columbia-Class SSBN(X) nuclear submarines with Trident missiles. The report also states that the 30-year US nuclear weapons modernization program, which began in 2010 and was estimated in 2017 to cost around 380 billion euros by 2046, must be fully funded to upgrade all warheads, delivery systems and infrastructure as planned. https://militaeraktuell. at/verteidigungsausschuss-diskutierte-luftthemen/ “The nation will have to make these investments” These changes proposed by the Commission would, of course, entail a massive increase in defense spending. “We are aware of the realities in the budget,” says the Report Democratic Chair Madelyn Creedon (former Deputy Director of the agency that oversees US nuclear weapons) and Vice Chair Jon Kyl (retired Republican Senator): “But we also believe that the nation must make this investment. The President and Congress must explain to the American people that increased spending on defense would be a comparatively small price to pay to ‘hopefully’ prevent nuclear war with China and Russia. This threat will become acute in the 2027 to 2035 timeframe, so decisions must be made now so the nation is ready.”

“The president and Congress must explain to the American people that increased defense spending would be a comparatively small price to pay to ‘hopefully’ prevent nuclear war with China and Russia.”

Bericht der Strategic Posture Commission

The report did not clearly specify the exact basis for this assessment and the time period given. A senior official involved in the report declined – on condition of anonymity – to say whether the panel’s intelligence briefings showed cooperation between China and Russia on nuclear weapons: “We’re concerned because there could be some sort of definitive coordination between them that brings us to this two-war construct,” the official said, emphasizing that “the U.S. and its allies must be prepared to deter and, if necessary, defeat both adversaries simultaneously.”

The panel included a Pentagon forecast that China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal will likely provide the country with 500 nuclear warheads by 2035, which would confront the US with a second major nuclear-armed rival for the first time. For this reason, other recommendations include the deployment of additional tactical nuclear weapons in Asia and Europe and the development of plans for the deployment of some or all of the US reserve nuclear warheads. There are also calls to strengthen the size and composition of the conventional armed forces of the USA and its allies. If such measures are not taken, “we will likely have to increase our dependence on nuclear weapons”, the report states.

The latter is also supported by Representative Mike Rogers of Alabama, Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, who said: “The findings highlight the seriousness of the situation we face and underscore that the current evolution of nuclear deterrence is not sufficient to deter the Chinese and Russian threat.” In a recent statement, he called for rapid changes to the US long-term strategic posture to deter the two nuclear adversaries in the future.

Biden administration says enough as it is As mentioned, the report is at odds with US President Joe Biden’s position that the current US nuclear arsenal is sufficient to deter the combined forces of Russia and China. First to respond to the Commission’s conclusions was the advocacy group Arms Control Association: “The composition of the current arsenal still exceeds what is necessary to put a sufficient number of adversary targets at risk to deter an enemy nuclear attack.”

The authors of the report, including Ms. Rose E. Gottemoeller. She was Secretary of State in the State Department responsible for arms control in the Obama administration, Deputy Secretary General of NATO until 2019, a frequent guest at the (now incapacitated) Vienna OSCE and has also been interviewed by Militär Aktuell. They concede that “these findings would turn the current US national security strategy on its head”. These would “only” be aimed at winning one conflict and deterring another. “The US-led international order and the values that the United States upholds are at risk from the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia.”