They have done it again: after the Ukrainian Ukrainian defense forces shot down a Russian early warning and airspace control aircraft of the type Beriev A-50U on January 14they are now, according to numerous media reports repeated the feat on February 23.
According to press reports, an old Soviet-made S-200V surface-to-air missile system (SAM) (SA-5 Gammon in ASCC/NATO parlance) was responsible for shooting down this high-value target (referred to as Mainstay in ASCC/NATO parlance). According to this, the A-50U flew so-called “8-loops” a little south of the far end of the Sea of Azov to observe the air situation on the southern front and was shot down in the process – around 220 kilometers from the nearest section of the front controlled by Ukraine.
In terms of the parameters alone, this should be feasible; the V-880 missile of the S-200 system has a range of 250 to 300 kilometers. However, there is the question of target engagement or fire control over this distance. To achieve this – even if the target behaves “carelessly” – would certainly be an achievement. Nevertheless, it could of course also be that the launch with the S-200V is only officially communicated, but in reality another air defense system – possibly provided by partners – was used, the presence of which on the battlefield is not to be disclosed for the time being.
Long out of date
However, if this is true, it is remarkable that the system, which was introduced in the Soviet Union in 1967 and improved or made more resistant to interference from 1973 onwards, is still operational in its original role in Ukraine after two years of Russian aggression. It was used in this role in Ukraine until around 15 years ago, In October 2001, a Russian Tu-154 passenger plane was mistakenly shot down during an exercise. This aircraft was also more than 200 kilometers away from the position at the time.
It is indisputable that Ukraine still has a great deal of expertise in the weapon system – also manifested by the fact that Ukraine has converted the S-200 system for ground-to-ground use, similar to the Russians’ S-300. Another aspect is that neighboring Poland, which supports Ukraine, upgraded the system to the S-200C around 20 years ago – a transfer of technological knowledge to extend the service life and increase the performance of the eleven-meter-long and seven-ton missiles cannot be ruled out. Improvements could also have been made to the monstrous P-14 Lena (NATO: Tall King) and later Oborona (Tall King C) search radars with a range of more than 400 kilometers as well as the P-37 (NATO: Bar lock B) target search and tracking radar.
Their own incompetence? Or enemy success?
The Russian reports circulating around the downing, according to which the radars of the Russian air defense in Taganrog had naturally detected the approaching S-200 and then fought it with two of their own missiles, are rather less likely. One would have hit, but unfortunately the friend-or-foe identification would have failed on the second one and it would have hit its own A-50U, which incidentally was still “flaring” decoys shortly before its end. This phenomenon has been observed in the past two years of war (-> current reports from the Ukraine war) on several occasions. Russia prefers to blame incompetence in its own ranks for serious losses rather than concede success to the enemy. The same applies to the claim that the A-50U was “shot down by an unknown aircraft with AIM-120C from a distance of 177 kilometers”. However, the “evaluators” on board should have had such an attempt on their radars for a long time. This special personnel (five majors, three captains, one lieutenant and one senior sergeant), who had been trained for years are even known by name to the Ukrainian services.
Counting on two hands or even just five fingers …
Between 1985 and 1993, three prototypes and 24 AEW&C aircraft (designated SRDLO by the Russians) based on the Il-76 transport were built at the Chkalov factories in Tashkent (now Uzbekistan). In the 20 years that followed, several upgrade programs such as the A-50U, A-50M and A-100 were announced (see below), of which only the current A-50U was actually built from 2000 onwards. The first aircraft was completed in 2005 (tactical number 37), but remained a prototype until it was handed over in 2014. This was followed by numbers 47 (2011), 33 (2013), 37 (2014), 41 (2017), 45 (2018), Bort 42 (2019) and Bort 43 (2022). At the time of the invasion of Ukraine, these seven aircraft – with fluctuating operational readiness – were in service, of which – as far as can be ascertained – number 37 was shot down on January 14 and number 42 on February 23. In addition, number 43 was slightly damaged by a Ukrainian drone in Belarus in February 2023.
In 2006, Vega Group was commissioned with another upgrade, the A-100, codenamed Premier. This project “consumed” one of the original A-50s (number 52), which became the first A-100 prototype, recognizable by an additional sensor above the cockpit. Two further prototypes were based on the Il-76MD-90A 78651 and 78652 with the new PS-90 turbofan engines. However, the project then went dormant again before being reorganized as the Premier-476 in 2013. This was followed by maiden flights in 2017 and the information that the new version would enter service in 2020. Although it has never been seen with BKS markings, an aircraft with the call sign 78651 appeared on Flightradar24 in April 2021, apparently following the flight of a Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk reconnaissance drone over the Black Sea.
With regard to the nature of the missions, it should be noted that even at its best (i.e. at the beginning of the war), the VKS never used these force multipliers in the way NATO would use them. In other words, it never kept two, three, four or five aircraft “on station” in the air around the clock in order to be permanently informed about what was happening in the “theater below”. Instead, the aircraft were primarily used to protect or intensify reconnaissance of areas of particular interest. Initially, for example, they were used to support large – albeit failed – helicopter missions in the Kiev region. More recently, they were used to strengthen and consolidate air defense on the Crimean peninsula, which was repeatedly attacked by Ukraine, or to support specific large-scale operations of the Su-34 tactical fighter aircraft, such as supporting air strikes in the Avdiivka region. And indeed, after the A-50U abruptly stopped flying, five Russian Suchois hastily left the airspace in question.
