The conflict map of Africa has shifted significantly in recent years: While armed conflicts in the 1990s were still primarily concentrated in the Mano River Union, the Sahel region is now clearly at the center of attention.
Oh Africa. Years after the genocide in Rwanda and the end of the civil wars in Angola, Chad and Ethiopia, the continent is still considered to be extremely conflict-ridden. However, while in the 1990s the states of the “Mano River Union” were still at the center of conflicts and escalations of violence, the focus has recently shifted significantly to the Sahel region. The conflict map of Africa has been completely redrawn in just two decades, and with it the way in which conflicts are conducted. Inter-state wars, such as those between Libya and Egypt in the past, hardly play a role today. Moreover, it is less and less often so-called warlords who are responsible for outbreaks of violence. Today, the violence is more likely to come from Islamist groups that operate across borders and have no regard for national territories and geographical conditions. This fragmentation and “fraying” of the conflict regions may be one of the reasons why the European Union and most of its member states are usually only aware of African upheavals (particularly those in the Sahel, West Africa and the Horn of Africa) when they have a negative impact on migration on the Old Continent. Other conflicts such as those in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) or the Central African Republic, on the other hand, fall below the public perception threshold in Europe. Quite wrongly, as the confusing situation in the DRC shows, where several flashpoints are blazing in parallel. In the north-east of the country, for example, ethnic clashes are raging. In many regions, there is also fighting between government troops, various foreign forces, local communities and rebel groups, of which observers estimate that there are more than 130 in the east of the country alone. The country is also extremely unstable politically. Presidential elections should have been held at the end of 2016. So far, however, these have always been postponed and now a new attempt is being made at the end of 2018.
The situation is similar in Cameroon, where President Paul Biya, born in 1933, has provided at least a hint of political stability since 1982. In recent years, however, the number of ethnic and religious differences in the country has increased. At the same time, the contrast between the francophone and anglophone population has intensified and there is a threat of fierce battles for his successor should Biya leave office.In addition, the north of the country is an area of operation for the Islamist group Boko Haram, which is also causing unrest in north-eastern Nigeria. In addition, conflicts over land, grazing rights, resources and identities are being fought along religious and ethnic lines, particularly in the north and center of the country. In the Niger Delta, too, various interests repeatedly provoke conflicts. The idea that the Biafra region could secede from Nigeria also continues to cause unrest. There are also separatist movements in several other states in West Africa, which are more or less visible depending on the political situation. Independence efforts are particularly strong in the Casamance region of Senegal, which raises fears that old conflicts with the government could flare up again there. The biggest challenge in West Africa is currently posed by jihadist groups in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, but also in Chad. They are attacking villages from remote areas, setting up roadblocks and acting in an increasingly professional manner. For example, they enter into changing alliances with ethnic or local criminal groups and recruit their members among nomads in particular. The reactions of states vary – depending on their own resources and international support or international pressure. In Mali, for example, the focus is clearly on the south, while the north continues to be neglected by the government. Burkina Faso, on the other hand, has to deal with the fact that it could be part of a jihadist expansion. Probably the most conflict-ridden region of the continent at present is the wider Horn of Africa. There, the interstate problems between Eritrea and Ethiopia are still unresolved, while domestic differences are also escalating in Ethiopia. The Oromo are increasingly protesting against the policies of the central government. The religious and ethnic balance in Eritrea also threatens to be disturbed if there are general changes in foreign policy positions in the region – such as a rapprochement with Ethiopia. In Somalia, on the other hand, the government continues to clash with the Al-Shabaab militia. Following the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops, Al Shabaab was even able to regain control of some cities in Somalia. However, the group’s main strategy remains attacks in the capital Mogadishu and on government facilities and the African peacekeeping force AMISOM. The conflict in South Sudan has recently been somewhat forgotten. Despite a strong UN presence, the political and economic power struggles there are being carried out violently on the backs of the population.
The establishment of viable state structures has been a long time coming since independence and the impression arises that personal interests are being pursued above all else, even in the eyes of the international community.
Please also read the commentary “Europe’s difficult strategy for Africa” by IFK head Brigadier Walter Feichtinger.
