It was quiet for five years, but recently pirates have been up to mischief again in the Gulf of Aden off the coast of Somalia. An analysis by Gerald Hainzl.
The crew of the oil tanker “Aris 13” must have been astonished in March this year when more than two dozen pirates hijacked their ship. The tanker was transporting fuel from Djibouti to the Somali capital Mogadishu when two smaller boats approached, said the director of the organization Oceans Beyond Piracy, John Steed. The crew was able to make a distress call before the pirates took control of the ship, after which radio contact was lost. Pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia are nothing new in principle, but the fact that this was the first reported pirate attack on international ships in the region since May 2012 and that further attacks soon followed makes the current incident noteworthy. The international missions in the Indian Ocean on the one hand and the conflict in Yemen on the other – which deprived the pirates of the opportunity to use the opposite coast – had previously led to a virtual standstill in piracy in the Horn of Africa.
While the international outcry following the attack on the “Aris 13” is huge, the excitement in Somalia itself is limited. Piracy is only a very minor problem there. As the rainy season failed to arrive for the third time in a row at the end of 2016, the country is suffering from a devastating drought. By March, more than 600,000 people were fleeing hunger and thirst within Somalia and aid organizations estimate that the number is increasing by 8,000 every day. The lack of water is also causing more and more livestock to die, depriving people of their livelihoods. Diseases such as cholera, which are caused by malnutrition, are spreading rapidly and do not even stop at national borders. According to the UN Children’s Fund UNICEF, around 275,000 children will suffer from acute malnutrition this year, and around half of the population – around six million people! – is currently dependent on humanitarian aid. However, this is only getting off to a very slow start, which is further exacerbating refugee movements both within the country and beyond its borders. It is understandable that a handful of pirates up to no good off the coast are not making the headlines. Nevertheless, a stabilization agreement is now supposed to enable a return to orderly political conditions and an end to the violence. In this context, both Somalia and the international community have high hopes for the newly elected President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmajo. A major challenge for him and his government will be to show the population that his government can actually improve living conditions in the country. If this does not succeed, high hopes can quickly lead to great disappointment and further support for groups such as al-Shabaab. The president should also address the status of Somaliland, which declared its independence around 26 years ago. A political solution and stabilization of Somalia will sooner or later also raise the question of how Mogadishu intends to deal with the Somaliland issue. Irrespective of this, President Farmajo has been trying to make a political impact not only internally but also externally since taking office. His trip to Ethiopia is a first indication that he is seeking cooperation with the neighboring states, probably also in the knowledge that any solution to the conflicts in Somalia also requires the support of the neighboring states. Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, for example, emphasized that close relations are the key to success in the fight against terrorism. Due to the different regional dynamics, but also in the struggle for regional supremacy and the neighboring states’ own economic and security policy interests, Somalia also serves as a catalyst for their intentions. Some successes have recently been achieved in the fight against the terrorist group al-Shabaab. Nevertheless, the group can still control large areas and therefore remains a security challenge. Al-Shabaab is still able to fight against state structures on several levels.
This ranges from attacks on military bases and terrorist attacks in Mogadishu to the prevention of international aid for the starving population. The rebels are using this situation to distribute food and other aid themselves in order to gain support among the population.
In order to achieve long-term stabilization, it will therefore be necessary to include al-Shabaab in all plans and considerations. This applies above all to the “ordinary” members of the group as well as, in part, to the Somali leadership cadres. It should help that the terrorists belong to the same society and thus to the Somali clan system, which will presumably make it easier to reintegrate them. The question remains as to how foreign fighters should be dealt with in this case. In addition to the African Union Mission (AMISOM), the USA is also heavily involved in Somalia. The fight against the terrorist group al-Shabaab is being waged with drones and air strikes. However, the death of a US soldier at the beginning of May also points to involvement on the ground. Just a few days earlier, a spokesperson for US AFRICOM had confirmed to Newsweek magazine that around 100 soldiers were stationed in Somalia. Their task is to train both the African Union forces and the Somali armed forces. However, new players are also appearing in the Horn of Africa who are involved in the region for security policy reasons. One example of this is the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which, in addition to a base in Eritrea, is also setting up a base in the Republic of Somaliland, even with the approval of the government in Mogadishu. There will be no quick peace solutions for Somalia precisely because of the large number of different players. Even with the goodwill of all those involved, it will take many years to establish a viable, stable political system, and all those involved must be aware that there will always be setbacks. However, they hardly have any alternatives, and the path they have now chosen seems to be the only promising one.
Please also read the commentary “Stabilization, combating terrorism and development” by IFK Head Brigadier General Walter Feichtinger.
