While in the past the propagandistic exaggerations of the performance of Russian weapons systems are almost legendary and in the Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine could not substantiate these claims, a rather inconspicuous system has now become the problem child and terror of Ukraine: Lancet.
Since the last quarter of 2022, Russian combat successes with the drone system have increased significantly. These are not just claimed hits; the statistics are based on the analysis of numerous videos that are increasingly being shown on Russian social media about the war. Reason enough to take a closer look at Lancet. https://youtu.be/cLmX65rlk4A
The “Kalashnikov of the air”
Lancet is a product of the Russian manufacturer ZALA Aero – a subsidiary of the well-known Kalashnikov Group. The weapon system was epresented to the public for the first time at the “Army” trade fair in 2019 and from 2020, isolated examples were tested in the Syrian conflict. From the summer of 2022, Lancet also made an appearance in Ukraine. On average, videos of three to six Russian hits were published each month. In October 2022, however, this number jumped to between 20 and 40 hits per month and reached a new peak in May with 61 hits. This is a strong indication that the Russian army has not only recognized the effectiveness of the system, but that the industry is also increasing its production capacities. https://militaeraktuell.at/der-ukraine-krieg-als-erster-war-of-drones/
The available figures suggest that no more than a handful of Lancet teams have been deployed on the Russian side to date. However, these experts hurt the Ukrainians a great deal, as they choose their targets carefully and hit almost exclusively Ukrainian high-value systems, which are not easy to replace.
Built with civilian components
Yet the Lancet UAV is anything but high-tech. The electronic innards of the drone are made up of civilian imported components, which Russia still has access to via gray imports despite the sanctions. For example, the single-board computer “Nvidia Jetson TX2”, other US and South Korean electronic components, a battery from China and a civilian multi-frequency satellite navigation receiver from the Swiss company u-blox are installed. https://youtu.be/QC-qL99YYmQ The engineers have thus succeeded in creating a very effective semi-autonomous system. The Lancet UAV, as well as the ZALA-421 reconnaissance drone working with it in a system network, clearly has an electro-optical target tracking system. The operator marks an object or a satellite coordinate on his monitor and the electro-optical system mounted on a stabilized, movable head follows this object, regardless of whether it is stationary or moving.
Semi-autonomous with operator support
In practice, Lancet flies independently at a predetermined altitude and direction while the operator uses the zoomable and swiveling electro-optics to search for its target in an area that has been found in advance by the ZALA-421 reconnaissance aircraft. Once the target has been found, the operator resets his marker as required and, depending on the target, initiates an automatic dive that is between 20 and 40 degrees steep. The electro-optics are returned from the zoom range to the wide-angle range, giving the impression that Lancet is hardly moving at all. It is only when the lens stops that the target object in the image quickly becomes dramatically larger and you get an impression of the drone’s real speed. https://youtu.be/GlAz58lLIZI It is clear from the videos that Lancet has increasing problems tracking the target as the UAV approaches the target at around 200 km/h on its final approach. The rapid and large changes in the video image with regard to the shape, size and angle of the tracked object cannot be handled by the built-in computer, at least in part. However, the UAV pilot is able to manually “touch up” the target markings via “man-in-the-loop” during the final approach until the radio link is lost, thus helping Lancet to achieve the optimum hit position. https://militaeraktuell.at/rheinmetall-asc-d-nl-beschaffen-caracal/
Countermeasures
In view of the large number of drones being used in Ukraine, both sides are currently endeavoring to use electronic countermeasures to prevent the respective opponent from using the radio and radio-electronic domain. Both sides are also using electronic support measures – such as signal amplifiers – to keep their own equipment operational in this environment. The fact is that drone missions are increasing on both sides of the front. And the electronic countermeasures on both sides of the front do not appear to be able to break this trend. https://youtu.be/AXg17Hor8Mc Due to the uncertain data situation, it is unclear what effectiveness -‘- absolute and relative – the weapon systems and countermeasures have. There are hit videos and videos of successful defenses as well as images of drone interiors – all without a total sum of deployed systems. There are statements from the drone fighter scene that the success rate is 30 percent, with good pilots possibly up to 50 percent. At first glance, this may not seem very attractive. However, this calculation must take into account the very small “footprint” of personnel, equipment and financial expenditure for the drone warfare and the very high expenditure of money, logistics and personnel for the deployment of large weapon systems such as tanks or heavy artillery. It then quickly becomes clear that even a drone mission success rate of 1:5 or even 1:10 is extremely effective. https://youtu.be/6vcMc2D8bc0
A “technical” should now fix it
Ukraine is currently strengthening its ability to engage slow and low-flying air targets by procuring so-called “technicals”. These are all-terrain pickup trucks with heavy machine guns, light-caliber automatic cannons or, if necessary, rocket launchers mounted on the back.
So anachronistic a MR-21 Viktor Klein truck with two super-heavy 14.5-millimeter machine guns on a manually operated mount may seem anachronistic in the Europe of 2023, against the low and slow-flying Lancet and Shahed they are currently likely to be the means of choice for consolidating Ukraine’s drone defence efforts.
