General Haftar and his LNA had to withdraw to Sirte after the fighting in recent weeks. According to the Austrian Libya expert Wolfgang Pusztai
The Austrian Middle East and Libya expert and former defense attaché in Libya and Tunisia, Wolfgang Pusztai, is also chairman of the advisory group of the “National Council on U.S.-Libya Relations” and, in this capacity, a regular guest on the “Africa News” program of the official U.S. foreign broadcaster “Voice of America”. In the current edition, Pusztai explains (from minute 9:25, see below) the after-effects of Turkey’s massive support for Prime Minister al-Sarraj’s internationally recognized “Government of National Accord” (GNA). With weapons, mercenaries and further military support from Ankara, the GNA had reportedly succeeded in beating back the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) of General Khalifa Haftar.
In return, Turkey now appears to be allowed to establish a permanent military presence at the western Libyan airbase Al Wattiya and in the military port of Misrata. In the program, Pusztai also talks about the effects of this presence on the European Union – which is completely irrelevant to current developments in the country (keyword: refugee route in the central Mediterranean) – and the toothless Operation Irini.
According to Pusztai’s information, General Haftar’s LNA, which was repulsed off Tripoli, now seems to have hunkered down near Sirte and is waiting there for the upcoming offensive by the GNA and Turkey (Operation “Burkan Al-Ghadab” or “Volcano”). To this end, a number of forces have been assembled: three Turkish FFG-7 frigates (Oliver Hazard Perry-class guided missile frigates) are to cover the attack against the new “Wagner jets”. In addition, an SA-3 (S-125 Neva/Pechora) air defense battery has been deployed in the Al Washkah area (south of Misrata and west of Sirte). This is apparently a modified version that was only recently procured with Turkish support (S-125-2D from Ukraine? Range +40km). There are also new details and satellite photos from the US AFRICOM command on the Russian MiG-29s and Su-24s recently flown in via Syria (you can find our report on this here): “These aircraft clearly came from Russia,” said U.S. Marine Corps Brigadier General Bradford Gering, US AFRICOM Director of Operations. “Our concern is that these planes are being flown by inexperienced mercenaries (note: recruited by the Wagner Group – see also information below) who do not play by the ‘rules of the game’ of armed conflict and ignore international law. In this case, the lives of many innocent people would be at risk.”
According to Wolfgang Pusztai, the LNA’s four or six new Su-24 Fencers can be operated by its own personnel; jets of this type were already part of the Gaddafi air force. As for the 14 anonymous (unmarked) MiG-29s, these are likely to be operated by personnel from the Syrian Air Force, which is familiar with Fulcrums. There are also enough Wagner-recruited mercenaries worldwide for both types; technicians as well as pilots. Although the deployment of these jets could temporarily delay or stop the imminent GNA attack, in the medium term the LNA will probably not be able to withstand the ISR plus fire superiority of the Turks without serious support from Egypt and the UAE. However, direct military involvement by the Egyptians (there have been repeated Egyptian air strikes in Libya, including with Rafále fighter jets) is only to be expected if the GNA-Turkish offensive advances further east towards Benghazi. As the “number one” arms dealer in Africa, Russia now maintains private security and military companies (so-called PMC – Private Military Company) such as the Wagner Group in a total of 16 African countries. In Libya, their number, including trainers and logisticians, is estimated at up to 2,000 men.
Update: Kurier podcast “What Erdogan is planning with Libya” with Wolfgang Pusztai from July 3.
