At the invitation of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the Western allies will meet again on 20 January in the so-called “Ukraine Contact Group” to discuss how they can provide Ukraine with further military support. Following the handover of several dozen older reconnaissance and infantry fighting vehicles from France (AMX-10RC with 105-millimeter cannon were promised to Ukraine on 4 January by President Emmanuel Macron), from the USA (M2 Bradley) and from Germany (Marder) to Kiev has been confirmed, battle tanks are likely to play a central role in the talks. In particular, the delivery of older Leopard models is likely to be on the agenda. Germany would also have to agree to the transfer of the type by other countries as the manufacturing country, but Berlin is currently still reluctant to do so.

Leopoard 2 in Ukraine @Oles_Navrotskyi by Depositphotos
Despite its successes, the Ukrainian army has also suffered enormous losses in terms of men and material. In order to be able to take the offensive again, the Ukrainian army urgently needs to replace its lost armored vehicles.

Ukraine needs 1,000 combat vehicles
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that he did not see “a single negative consequence for Germany” if the main battle tanks were actually delivered in the end. In any case, the demand for such vehicles is great. According to Kuleba, the Ukrainian army needs 300 main battle tanks and up to 700 infantry fighting vehicles for offensive operations in the spring and summer after “wearing out” a large part of its Soviet-produced vehicle fleet and the equipment captured from the Russians. At the moment, it still looks like Germany will say “no” to a possible handover, although Berlin has already handed over heavy combat vehicles such as Gepard anti-aircraft tanks and PzH2000 self-propelled artillery to Ukraine in the past, without yet becoming a party to the war. The German government was also reluctant to purchase Marder vehicles for months and wanted to avoid “going it alone”, although the USA had already delivered 200 M113 infantry fighting vehicles (Vietnam-era, but “useful” in combat according to Ukraine).

@EU Parliament
Germany is supplying Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine. Roberta Metsola, the President of the EU Parliament, supports this move.

EU Parliament President Roberta Metsola welcomed the Marder delivery to Ukraine announced by the German government. It is “important to continue the support for Ukraine”, said Metsola. She was therefore also in favor of the delivery of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, as demanded by the CSU and politicians from other parties. Metsola said that Russia wanted Europe to “look the other way” and “tire” when it came to Ukraine. However, this must not be allowed to happen. It is therefore important for Europe to continue to support the Ukrainians politically, humanitarian and also militarily. “But it is also important that Europe strengthens its own defense forces and becomes a true defense union.”

“It is important that Europe strengthens its own defense forces and becomes a true defense union.

”
CSU regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt sharply attacked his federal government in the presence of the President of the EU Parliament. According to the opposition politician, Germany’s weak leadership is the reason why Europe as a whole cannot be strong at the moment. “A weak German government is an Achilles heel for Europe.” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has also spoken out in favor of the delivery of Leopard 2s to Ukraine. “Yes, I think Ukraine should get the qualified equipment it needs and can use to defend and liberate its homeland,” she said in Brussels on January 10. At a conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and EU Council President Charles Michel, she commented on the controversial issue – especially for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the SPD – of whether she would support countries considering the delivery of battle tanks such as the Leopard 2. These include countries such as Poland and Spain. However, German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit also emphasized on 10 January that he was not aware of any inquiries from partners who wanted to supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine themselves. In contrast to this German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) did not explicitly rule out such a delivery – In any case, there are plenty of available vehicles in Europe. Many countries operate Leopard main battle tanks
According to current figures, NATO and EU countries together have well over 2,000 Leopard tanks. At the end of 2021, the Bundeswehr alone had a total of 285 Leopard 2 tanks of the 2A5, 2A6 and 2A7/2A7V modifications, of which only around 180 are in combat readiness. In addition, manufacturer Rheinmetall also has a stock of around 50 “obsolete” Leopard 2A4s, which are most likely to be considered for handover to Ukraine. However: According to Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, a handover would not be expected until early 2024 at the earliest.

Leopoard 2 @MoD Poland
Poland currently operates a total of 250 Leopard 2 tanks. However, these are to be replaced by more modern systems in the near future and could therefore go (at least in part) to Ukraine.

With 250 Leopard 2s (including 126 2A4s, 16 2PLs and 105 2A5s), the Polish army has a similarly large fleet of Leopards to the German armed forces. However, Poland is planning to take the vehicles out of service soon and replace them with American M1A2 Abrams SEPv.3 and South Korean K2 Black Panthers. According to the Wall Street Journal (the paper cites an assessment by an unnamed “high-ranking Polish diplomat”), the transfer of a larger quantity of vehicles is therefore also conceivable – the stock would in any case be sufficient to equip two complete armored brigades. Meanwhile, Polish President Andrzej Duda promised the handover of a company of Leopard battle tanks (probably 14 vehicles) by a coalition that is currently being formed during a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Selenskyj and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda in Lviv, western Ukraine, on January 11.

@ArchiveAccording to the director of the Polish Institute of International Relations, the possible handover date depends above all on Germany and the approval of the government in Berlin. Sławomir Dębski, Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs – a Warsaw-based think tank with close ties to the Polish government – sees the delivery of replacement vehicles (Abrams and Black Panther) as the decisive factor. “The question for us is not whether a handover should take place, but rather when it is planned,” said Dębski, who was pleased that the “Western reluctance regarding the possible handover of tanks to Ukraine is finally softening after months of diplomatic efforts”. “This is exactly what Poland has been campaigning for for many months.” Update from January 19: According to Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland will “do the right thing” and deliver battle tanks to Ukraine even without a green light from Berlin. https://militaeraktuell.at/haben-panzer-in-modernen-armeen-noch-zukunft/ There are also large Leopard 2 fleets in Spain (327 in total, of which 219 are 2E 2A6+ and 108 are 2A4), Turkey (316 Leopard 2A4s, 84 of which have been upgraded to 2A4TR) and Finland. The army there has around 200 Leopard 2s in service, half in 2A4 modification (most of which are in storage) and half in 2A6 modification. A handover to Ukraine is certainly conceivable, as Antti Häkkänen, head of the Finnish defense committee, confirmed in a commentary for MTV Uutiset. However, this would require other countries in Europe to take similar steps.

Sweden, which has 120 Leopard 2S (as well as nine Stridsvagn 121 and 122 = upgraded 2A5), takes a similar view. According to Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, the decision on the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks should be made in a few weeks. “I think it’s pretty well known what Ukraine needs,” he said in Stockholm. Each country will now try to make decisions about what it can afford. However, the needs of their own armed forces and, of course, the regulations and decisions that depend on partners in these specific weapon systems must also be taken into account. The Greek army has a further 170 Leopard 2A6HELs and around 180 Leopard 2A4s in its inventory. A handover of vehicles to Ukraine would be a surprise, but the 40 ex-German Marder vehicles that Athens received in a “ring swap” for BMPs that went to Ukraine could go to Ukraine for the time being, “provided they are replaced later”, according to Greek sources.

@Georg Mader
Austria also operates a fleet of Leopard 2 main battle tanks – but a possible handover to Ukraine can be ruled out. Instead, more money is to flow into the domestic armored forces in the coming years.

In addition to Austria, Switzerland, Chile, Singapore and Qatar, which only have small Leopard fleets and for which a handover to Ukraine cannot be considered for various reasons, Norway, Canada, Portugal and Denmark also operate the main battle tank model. While Lisbon plans to upgrade its 37 Leopard 2A6Pos with Active Protection Systems (APS) from 2026 and Copenhagen wants to upgrade its 44 Leopard 2s (26 2A7M+DK variants and 18 2A5DK variants) to 2A7M+DK, Oslo has 52 Leopard 2A4NOs, of which only 36 are in service (the rest are in storage). All current Leopards there will be replaced by either K2 Black Panthers or Leopard 2A7s from 2025. Canada has around 40 Leopard 2s in service, including 20 2A4M-CANs and 20 2A6M-CANs. A further 40 or so Leopard 2A4s are in service as training vehicles or are being converted into ARVs. https://militaeraktuell.at/ukraine-das-kriegsgeschehen-im-zeitraffer/ Away from the discussed Leopard 2 handover, rumours about the delivery of British main battle tanks to Ukraine have also recently become known in the UK. As reported by Sky News, ten Challenger 2 vehicles (from BAE Systems/Land Systems, a company of the Rheinmetall Group) could initially go to Kiev to defend against Russian attacks. Corresponding discussions have been underway for weeks, and a handover could also motivate other countries to provide similar support.

A first step towards a larger delivery?
From a Ukrainian perspective, the cost of acquiring “only” ten vehicles (especially in terms of training and logistics, and the towed 120-millimetre cannon can only fire British ammunition) is disproportionately high. However, the delivery could be just the first step towards significantly more extensive British support, as the country’s armored force (Yeomanry) has a total of 150 Challenger 2s in reserve, which will not be upgraded to Challenger 3. “It is clear that main battle tanks could give the Ukrainians crucial capabilities. Our Prime Minister has therefore pledged to President Volodymyr Zelensky that the UK will accelerate its support for Kiev and also provide the country with the kind of military technology that will help Ukraine win the war,” a spokesman for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told journalists in London.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR