The Austrian Armed Forces present the 2024 risk picture

A possible expansion of the Ukraine war and a confrontation between Russia and the EU, disruptions to supply chains and new migration flows – these are just three of the greatest current risks for Austria presented today by the Defense Policy and International Relations Directorate of the Ministry of Defense at the Raiffeisen Forum in Vienna.

In the publication published to accompany the event “Risk picture 2024 – world out of joint” presents Austria’s risk picture for the next twelve to 18 months at national, European and international level and draws conclusions for Austrian defense policy and the Austrian Armed Forces. Austrian Armed Forces are presented for discussion.

After the opening speech by host Major General Erwin Hameseder, Militia Commissioner of the Austrian Armed Forces and General Advocate of the Austrian Raiffeisen Association, Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner gave a keynote speech on the topic. “In Ukraine, the Middle East and elsewhere, we have to experience things on a daily basis that we could not have imagined until recently. For a long time, we took it for granted that there could no longer be war on our continent and that military national defense should therefore no longer be the focus. However, recent developments have meant that we now have to think differently and that we have now also ushered in a ‘turning point’ in Austria, with investments of more than 18 billion euros by 2027 alone.”

“Even if the world has come apart at the seams, we don’t have to do the same, and I am convinced that the key to greater security lies in greater cooperation as well as strengthening our own defense capabilities.”

Verteidigungsministerin Klaudia Tanner

Minister Klaudia Tanner continued: “We must recognize that we need to ramp up investment at European level and that the Strategic Compass must not remain a paper tiger. We all have to play our part and that includes strengthening our own defense capabilities. The developments in Ukraine show on many levels where we need to pull the lever – if we look at air defense alone, which we need to build up and strengthen at all levels.” Tanner concludes: “Even if the world has come apart at the seams, we do not have to do the same and I am convinced that the key to more security lies in more cooperation in addition to strengthening our own defense capabilities.”

This was followed by the presentation of the Risk Picture 2024 by Major General Peter Vorhofer, Head of the Defense Policy and International Relations Directorate (-> Interview in Militär Aktuell). “In recent years, we have succeeded in making many predictions in our risk picture – and we are certain that we will succeed in doing so again this year.” Vorhofer followed this up with an outlook for the coming year: “The number of wars will continue to rise because war is back as a political tool and more and more powers are using military means to defend and assert their interests.”

“The number of wars will continue to rise because war is back as a means of politics and more and more powers are also trying to defend and assert their interests militarily.

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Generalmajor Peter Vorhofer

The greatest risks for Austria identified by Vorhofer are

• military conflicts with an impact on Austria,
• a possible confrontation between Russia and the EU,
• a limited strategic capability and
• Supply chain disruptions.
• Other risks include migration flows to Austria and the EU,
• in information and disinformation campaigns by international players (Major General Vorhofer: “It has never been so cheap and never been so easy to create synthetic content and thus undermine democratic countries and structures.”),
• in cyber attacks and the fight in computer networks,
• and in the weakening of European integration through targeted attacks and coercion by external actors.

https://militaeraktuell.at/rheinmetall-man-liefert-lkw-nach-portugal/ Die Effekte daraus „sind für uns alle schon spürbar”, so Vorhofer, der seine Aussage mit einigen Beispielen unterstrich: „Auf der ganzen Welt wird aufgerüstet, die Funktion großer internationaler Organisationen in der Konfliktsicherung wird immer weiter zurückgedrängt und zudem steht der westliche liberal-demokratische Ansatz vor allem im ,globalen Süden’ zunehmend unter Druck.” Die einzige Schlussfolgerung, um Österreich fit für zukünftige Herausforderungen zu machen und die Resilienz des Landes zu stärken, könne laut Vorhofer nur in einer adäquaten Vorbereitung liegen. „Darauf muss nun der volle Fokus liegen.”

In a subsequent panel, Ukraine-Russia expert Gerhard Mangott, Africa expert Antonia Witt from the Leibnitz Institute for Peace and Conflict Research, Western Balkans expert Marie-Janine Calic from the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, Günther Barnet, Head of Regional Cooperation Africa and NMO from the Directorate General for Defense Policy, and Major General Günter Hofbauer, Head of Planning of the Austrian Armed Forces, spoke about the latest geopolitical and security policy developments, wars of the future and military strategic conclusions. The most important statements of the panel participants:

• Gerhard Mangott: “Russia is in a position to wage and finance the war for a long time. In March, we will see the coronation of Vladimir Putin as the new and old President of Russia, and how the aid and support packages and the financial and military aid from the West develop will be crucial for the further development of the war in Ukraine. Whether these packages come or not will be decisive for the further development of the war.”

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  Marie-Janine Calic: “There is every indication that the conflicts and tensions in the Western Balkans will continue – but I think a major war is unlikely. None of the players on the ground can have an interest in an escalation, not even Serbia, which is currently in accession negotiations with the EU and probably doesn’t want to risk this option.”

• Antonia Witt: “Unlike in the past, we do not currently see any ongoing peace efforts and talks on the continent. A further escalation of the current situation and violent conflicts is to be expected, particularly in the Sahel region and Sudan.”
• Günther Barnet: “I currently see the most critical development scenario in a complete destabilization of northern Jordan. If this succeeds, there will be a land connection between Iran and the West Bank and weapons could be smuggled in on a large scale via this connection, which will be a much greater challenge for Israel on balance and is also likely to attract the attention of other actors such as Hezbollah.”
• Major General Bruno Hofbauer: “As the Austrian Armed Forces, we will have to reorient ourselves 180 degrees in order to make the Armed Forces fit for war. This will take time, money and personnel – we need to establish fighting power, strengthen our endurance and operational capability and also ensure the necessary leadership. We must prepare ourselves and it must be clear that where it says military on it, there must also be military in it. That’s what politicians and society expect.”

Arnold Kammel, Secretary General of the Ministry of Defense, drew three important conclusions for Austria and the Austrian Armed Forces in terms of security and defence policy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zxdcy3agLso “Firstly, we must become more strategic and live and implement this strategy accordingly. To do this, however, we must ask ourselves where our dependencies are and how we can reduce them,” says Kammel. “Secondly, we need to do our military homework in order to be capable of military action and deployment. And finally, thirdly, we also need to strengthen our spiritual national defense in order to give lasting substance to everything we have mentioned and discussed today.”

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