The only stable thing in the European environment is instability. In Mali, Lebanon, Libya, Belarus and the Caucasus, long-simmering conflicts have once again broken out.
Admittedly, these conflicts never disappeared completely. Rather, they just received less attention in the face of other challenges. Even if each conflict has its own specific cause and course and requires tailor-made crisis management, some commonalities can be identified from an analytical perspective: In many cases, attempts are made to get rid of bad governance be it through a coup, public protest or civil war. However, it is more difficult than getting rid of an old government to establish a generally recognized, democratically legitimized and acting government that meets people’s expectations for prosperity and security. We should be prepared for further new conflicts to break out without the existing ones being resolved sustainably. This is because the withdrawal of the USA as the “world’s policeman” means that the global regulatory framework is disintegrating and there is no new global regulatory power in sight. Rival interests of regional powers often fuel conflicts from the outside instead of containing them. And global trends such as climate change, demographics and socio-economic upheaval mean that conflicts in and around Europe are likely to intensify further. https://militaeraktuell.at/europas-vorhof-krisen-wohin-man-blickt/ In addition, diverging interests within the community of states are also a recurring problem, which hinders strong and strategically led international crisis management. The EU is more directly affected by the effects of these conflicts than the USA, for example, which will only become involved in crises in Europe’s front yard in exceptional cases, regardless of the outcome of the presidential elections. At the same time, the EU has not yet been able to develop the security policy capabilities that would enable it to act as a strong and united player. This means that for the time being, the only option is to maintain the status quo as best as possible through reactive and selective crisis management and at least prevent a massive escalation of the conflict, even if it is obvious that maintaining the fragile status quo in the EU environment is not a promising and sustainable strategy for European security policy in the long term.
You can also read the interview “Europe’s forecourt: Kirsen wherever you look?” with IFK experts Christoph Bilban, Gerald Hainzl and Stephan Reiner.
