Global political headlines irritate or shock us on a daily basis – no stone seems to be left unturned. Europe in particular is affected by these upheavals, and it would be wise to actively counter this change. An analysis by former security policy expert Brigadier General Walter Feichtinger.
Where is the perfect world of yesterday? Gone. Today, chaos seems to reign geopolitically – it is challenging us more than ever and leaves us little room for maneuver.
What are the characteristics of this change? Firstly, power-based thinking is shaping behavior in regulatory and economic policy conflicts – international rules are being ignored. International organizations such as the UN or the WTO are losing importance. For example, the USA is not thinking of taking trade conflicts with China and other countries to the WTO, while China is persistently disregarding the 2016 arbitration ruling on the South China Sea.
Secondly, the shift of the US geostrategic focus to the Indo-Pacific is becoming increasingly apparent. Europe must therefore quickly assume more responsibility for its security. The courtship of Putin could also be linked to this – it would be better for the US not to have Russia on China’s side in the event of an escalation in the South China Sea.
Thirdly, the willingness of some states to “solve” cross-border conflicts militarily – for example in Nagorno-Karabakh, northern Syria or Gaza – is worrying. The clearest example remains Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (-> Latest news from the war in Ukraine). Hybrid attacks weaken the enemy, stir up mistrust and fuel the security dilemma that drives armament.
“We should adapt as quickly as possible
to the rapid changes
“Sicherheitspolitik-Experte Brigadier a. D. Walter Feichtinger
Fourthly, the resistance of the “dissatisfied” against the existing world order is becoming increasingly clear. They are forming the BRICS+, sometimes pursuing different goals, but are united in their aim of ending the dominance of the West and the US dollar. Europe is in danger of falling into the maelstrom of anti-Americanism and should quickly promote its own interests and cooperation.
Fifthly, technological and communication revolutions bring the greatest uncertainties. What does AI mean for the labor market? How does “social” media influence society? And how much room for maneuver will democratic forces have? These questions are pressing, as they are rapidly penetrating everyday life and overwhelming many people. Techno-nationalism and digital colonialism are already the subject of heated debate at national and international level – the question is whether new dependencies are emerging and how much power tech giants such as Elon Musk can exert over states.
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All of this is taking place against a backdrop of major demographic upheavals and the frightening consequences of climate change.
Not a sunny outlook, but we should adapt to the rapid changes as quickly as possible, as they will not disappear like a ghost, but rather represent the new normality. Fortunately, Europe has the potential to navigate and position itself in this
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