Lieutenant, what are the links between climate change and security policy?
I divide this into five areas:
- Climate-induced migration: In the future, there will be more climate-induced migration from Africa to Europe.
- Threats to the power supply: Extreme weather events, but also the switch to renewable energies, can jeopardize the electricity supply. This is because energy from wind and solar power cannot be controlled like a coal-fired power plant, for example. This leads to fluctuations in the grid. We must not forget the risk of a blackout.
- Water: Floods and mudslides are increasing. Paradoxically, on the other hand, there are water shortages. The eastern regions of Austria in particular will be increasingly affected by the shortage.
- Vulnerability of goods and raw materials due to export dependency: Extreme weather events also play a role in international logistics chains here. Austria is heavily dependent on soybeans and palm oil for the import of raw materials. In the case of industrial raw materials, it is oil, gas and rare earths.
- Infectious diseases: Progressive global warming is leading to an increased incidence of infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases such as the West Nile virus. This virus is spread by the tiger mosquito. Its spread in Europe is currently still limited, but will increase in the coming decades.
That all sounds very gloomy and threatening. How seriously should we take the threats? Which of the effects mentioned are most likely to affect us?
I often observe that the dangers are not taken very seriously. However, the dangers we are facing cannot be stopped. Measures must therefore be taken and we must react to them. I consider the most likely threat to the electricity supply to be the switch to renewable energies. This is because the energy transition entails risks that are difficult to assess, but could cause massive problems for Austria if they occur. Climate-induced migration is just as difficult to predict when and to what extent it will occur. But if it does, it will bring major changes for Europe and Austria.
“I consider the most likely threat to the electricity supply to be the switch to renewable energies.”
How well prepared do you think Austria is? And since you are also in the armed forces: How well prepared do you think the armed forces are?
Let’s start with the armed forces. I would like to refer to two concepts of the Armed Forces: The Military Strategic Concept 2017 already pointed out at the time that early detection is essential. The 2032 Reconstruction Plan published in the fall of last year published last autumn not only calls for investment in military equipment, but also for increasing the resilience of the Armed Forces’ infrastructure. This has so far been implemented through the creation of twelve self-sufficient security islands. A further 100 properties are to be made self-sufficient by 2025. An additional 16 billion euros are planned for this. An enormous amount has been done in the area of flood protection over the past 20 years. Many preventative measures have been implemented since the flood of the century in Lower Austria in 2002. What is still needed is the further expansion of protection facilities for mountain streams in the west of Austria and, when it comes to the supply of raw materials, the regionalization of supply chains and longer-term supply contracts must be considered in order to guarantee security of supply
What is the situation at EU level? Are there any measures there?
The EU’s measures are preventative. Between 2021 and 2027, 80 billion euros will be invested in climate-related projects. That is around 30 percent of the budget for external measures – a considerable amount. One example is the Green Wall project in Africa. An 8,000 kilometer long green strip is being reforested through the Sahel region. This is intended to improve the microclimate and ensure food security there. https://militaeraktuell.at/lockheed-mit-f-35-auch-in-rumaenien-erfolgreich/
Let’s take another look at NATO. How is this military alliance dealing with the issue?
NATO has been working on this issue since the 1960s. In the near future, it will set up an independent competence center for climate security, which will act as a link between the member countries. It will centralize results from meteorology, oceanography and climate change research. The aim is for the findings to be integrated into the respective military strategies.
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