Colonel Markus Reisner heads the development department at the military academy in Wiener Neustadt. Here he explains some aspects in anticipation of a Russian offensive in the war in Ukraine.
Colonel, what is Russia waiting for? Why is it all taking longer? Does General Dvornikov have to establish himself first?
The operation has already begun. We are now seeing a completely different tactical operation than in the first six weeks of the war. The Ukrainian positions are only attacked after massive artillery and multiple rocket launcher fire (especially with BM-30 and BM-21 launchers). The Russians then advance slowly (1.5 km/h) and cautiously. This is currently happening at four points in the possible cauldron that is forming. Only when a breakthrough is made in the depth of the encirclement can a sustained massive Russian approach of forces be expected. In the meantime, additional forces are constantly being brought in, mainly from Belgorod. General Dvornikov is responsible for overall coordination. He has been carrying this out for at least ten days. He previously led the operation in this area, so he is familiar with the situation in detail. The result of his operational command was the successful encirclement of Ukrainian forces near Izjum and the breakout from the confinement towards the south. A tank battle between Russian and Ukrainian tanks near Kamina was won by the Russians. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian forces managed to reorganize themselves and form a stable defensive line. This testifies to the extremely high morale of the Ukrainian forces.
Mariupol: Why can’t Russia take the city?
The city is largely in Russian hands. Within the city, two districts are essentially still under Ukrainian control. A fierce urban battle is raging above and below the streets. The Ukrainian defenders are fighting mainly in the industrial plant “Asovtal” from the underground cable shafts and corridors. However, the battle for the city is in its final phase. Repeated Ukrainian attempts to break out to the north and the capture of large groups of Ukrainian soldiers (documented by several videos) show this. The members of the Azov regiment in particular are still fighting to the bitter end. They expect certain death if they are captured, as they are considered “Nazis” by the Russians. They therefore have no alternatives. The Russian side wants to avoid high personal losses and is therefore proceeding cautiously (use of drones and massive artillery fire). Several attempts by the Ukrainian side (including an attempt to evacuate by ship or helicopter) have so far failed. In addition, after more than 40 days of fighting, the defenders are already suffering from massive supply shortages (especially ammunition and food). https://militaeraktuell.at/was-ist-mit-dem-russischen-kriegsschiff-moskwa/
How is Ukraine currently positioning itself? Will weapons arrive in time for the major offensive?
The Ukrainian forces are attempting to further strengthen their existing defensive positions in the Donbass (for example by continuously laying mines) and to conduct a mobile defense. This means that they occupy the positions with small forces during the artillery attacks and only attempt to achieve a defensive success when the Russian ground troops advance. However, the massive use of Russian drones (especially the Orlan-10) is making it increasingly difficult to deploy the necessary forces. In addition, the Russian forces are attempting to eliminate the Ukrainians’ supply lines by using aerial means (fighter aircraft, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles). Selected Western weapons systems (mini-drones for artillery fire control, various anti-tank systems) are already in the Donbass or are on their way (Kamikazedrones of the Switchblade 600 type). The heavy weapon systems promised by the West (e.g. heavy 155mm artillery self-propelled guns) have not yet arrived. Their timely arrival is currently not to be expected.
