The attack by irregular fighters from the radical Islamic militias Hamas and Islamic Jihad from Gaza on neighboring southern Israel will go down in the history books of the Middle East as a new round of violence and will probably continue to have an impact there for many years to come – on both sides. The reasons for the escalation that began on October 7 are manifold and can be found here and there. An analysis by Militär Aktuell editor Georg Mader.

@Le MondeComparisons with previous escalations
Although the attack took place on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War of 1973 various media comparisons with Israel’s earlier wars are inaccurate. The third Middle East war in 1973 in particular was – like its predecessors – an (inter)action by the regular armed forces of the Arabs and Israelis. The actions of the terrorists – and these are fighters who indiscriminately slaughter and kidnap civilians – are much more similar to the terrorist attacks of 9/11the IS massacre at the university in Nairobi and especially the attack by Islamic assailants of the Lashkar-e-Taiba from Pakistan in Mumbai, India, in 2008. Hundreds of people were killed everywhere there, and in the case of the current clashes in Israel it will probably end up being more than 1,000 – including some of the 150 or so hostages currently being taken to Gaza by the long-suffering Israeli people. Status of Hamas
Palestinian society is also long-suffering, as it is being held hostage in the Gaza Strip by the radical Hamas. Nevertheless, it bears the brunt of Israeli air and artillery strikes and has been doing so for years, not just since October 7 – now probably more than ever before. The Gaza Strip, with its coalesced prefabricated towns of Raffah, Khan Younis and Gaza, is considered the most densely populated region in the world and has been under Israeli (and Egyptian) blockade since 2007, when Hamas took power from “Fatah” after elections – also after internal fighting – but refused to stop the violent actions against Israel. No wonder, after all, the destruction of Israel is very prominent in the Hamas charter.


The Israeli blockade imposed in response to this is cited by Hamas propaganda as one of the main reasons for the current attack. It is also explosive that Israel’s attacks are now playing into Hamas’ propaganda hands, as strikes in the densely populated area are unfortunately all too often associated with collateral damage and casualties. Hamas is also a master at positioning its killed fighters as martyrs, thereby attracting new personnel and promoting the anti-Semitic indoctrination of pre-school children. “Mein Kampf” and other Nazi propaganda can be found in Gaza – translated into sometimes splendid commemorative publications – in many displays and markets. Big politics
Another factor that may have had a triggering effect in the background is a possible normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia (guardian of the holy sites) and Israel, along the lines of the ” AbrahamAccords” initiated by President Donald Trump. “Abraham Accords”such as with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Morocco. In view of statements such as those made by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) that they are getting closer to Israel every day, the Palestinians could fear falling through the “rust of history”. Tehran cannot like all this either, but even the new war – according to analysts from major broadcasters – would only delay this rapprochement or normalization. MBS is demanding a “good deal” for the Palestinians, but has already told them to “come to an agreement with Israel or shut up”. Radical Zionist settlers
Another reason for the new round of violence, according to Palestinians, are the extremist Zionist settlers, who have been waging an aggressive campaign with numerous provocations against the Palestinians, particularly in the Jerusalem and West Bank area, for more than a year. Since April of this year, they have repeatedly stormed and desecrated (for Muslims) the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, thus triggering the so-called “Al-Aqsa clashes” provoked. Since then, this campaign has ranged from the harassment of Arabs and people who are visibly not Jewish to attacks and ambushes on Palestinians in various places in the West Bank. There have also allegedly been attacks on and looting of Palestinian property and, in some cases, even lynchings of Palestinians living in Israel. In this context, the Hamas leadership cites more than 240 Palestinians killed by the Israelis, while hundreds are also said to be arrested and held in Israeli prisons.

@IDF
Supporter Iran
In Israel, the detainees are dismissed as “terrorists”, which in turn is grist to the mill of Hamas and the Lebanese Hezbollah, which is currently apparently showing some restraint, as well as Iran. Tehran openly supports Hamas – here the schism between Shiites and Sunnis seems irrelevant to the overriding goal of destroying Israel. The mullahs – as Iranian leaders have openly stated in various videos – have supported the Palestinians with the equivalent of around 70 million euros for the production of rockets (or rocket parts) alone. The Quds units, the “foreign department” of the powerful Iranian Revolutionary Guards, are mainly responsible for implementation. On January 3, 2020, its commander Qasem Soleimani, who is very popular in Iran, was killed by an MQ-9 Reaper drone at Baghdad airport using a Hellfire missile on the orders of US President Donald Trump. And the Israeli air force repeatedly destroys weapons shipments for Hamas and Hezbollah that have just arrived from Iran – mostly at Syrian airports.

… but also Qatar
While Iran officially boasts of its support, according to various sources, the Emirate of Qatar is now Hamas’ main sponsor, providing over 100 million euros annually. However, the lion’s share of this – Israeli banks are said to be involved – goes towards supplying the Gaza Strip with electricity, water and food from Israel. Nevertheless, this could also cover losses and the replacement of destroyed military equipment. Incidentally, this also always applies to so-called aid money from European countries, such as that which Austria used to transfer and has now stopped in response to the attacks. If what various bloggers and Twitter (X) users claim is true, both Doha and Tehran as well as Hezbollah and Fatah are likely to have been involved in the decision-making chain. Against this backdrop, Qatar’s proximity to Iran, the operation of the Al Jazeera TV station and the and the eightfold increase in the country’s air force with US and European jets which had caused disagreement among the other Gulf monarchies.

@Archive
Extensive destruction: Israel’s retaliatory attacks are widely visible in Gaza’s cityscape.

How could this happen?
Many wonder how Hamas was able to surprise Israel and its intelligence and security services so much with its “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation. Well, despite COMMINT and classic HUMINT in Gaza, Israel does not have total control – and this also applies to friendly (US) services. And as offensive as it may sound and despite a certain “cultivated myth”, the Israelis are not supernatural beings either, despite their multiple experiences from decades of trying not to be driven into the Mediterranean, but humans like everyone else. So it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise that they too make mistakes and sometimes mistakenly lull themselves into a sense of security. Similar to Egypt’s actions from 1971 to 1973, when their (conventional) attack on the Suez Canal took the Israelis completely by surprise, the Israelis now had no idea – and no warning.

@Military Geographical InstituteHowever, Israeli sources reported on October 7 that Hamas military exercises had indeed been observed on the other side of the border fence to the Gaza Strip – and repeatedly for up to 20 days. Apparently, these were not only intended to increase their own operational readiness, but also to lull Israel’s security forces into a sense of security. In the perception that these were always just exercises and threatening gestures anyway, vigilance probably waned. Allegedly, warnings from Cairo were also negated and the focus was more on the West Bank than on Gaza. Added to this is the good timing of the Hamas planners, the domestic political crisis surrounding the judicial reform, which also affected the security forces and reservists, as well as the important legal holiday of Simchat Torah. On the Hamas side, only a few top commanders are likely to have been involved in the information cycle. Incidentally, Muhammad Abu Ghal, the commander of Hamas’ southern branch, was captured alive by an IDF special unit on October 8. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s60RPyaBIQk&t=30s
“SEAD” of the poor man
Apparently, the entire operation began with an “economy version” of SEAD (suppression of enemy air defenses): After the Qassam Brigades were able to overrun the IDF base at the northern Erez checkpoint, they stormed from there to an Iron Dome site of the Israeli air defenses near Sderot. Its capture created a gap in Israel’s air defenses around the Gaza Strip, into which Hamas immediately advanced with a barrage of thousands of rockets. Hamas targeted the entire country from Sderot via Beersheba to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Although defenses elsewhere remained intact, the gap that opened up caused considerable damage and casualties in numerous communities. Flight operations at Lod/Ben Gurion International Airport were disrupted for hours. At the same time as the attack on Erez, the Qassam’attacked the IDF base in Nahal Oz. Using a combination of anti-tank guided missiles, Ukraine-style drones and motorcycles, the terrorists destroyed or captured four Merkava Mk.IV main battle tanks, one or two heavy infantry fighting vehicles and at least three M113 armored personnel carriers (Vietnam era). 20 or 30 Israeli military personnel were killed or captured. In the south near Keren Shalom, the PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) claimed to have overrun the Israeli Nahal Brigade and killed its commander, Lt. Col. Jonathan Steinberg. Hamas also reported the “capture” of General Nimrod Aloni, the commander of the entire Gaza Division. This would mean – Israel has not confirmed this – that even part of the local IDF headquarters could be brought under control.

Speaking of rockets
Many people ask how it is that the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip – which, as mentioned, is blockaded by both Israel and Egypt – are able to produce 5,000 rockets so that they can fire them at Israel as a surprise and distraction from the infiltration. But these “capabilities”, their development and maintenance have been going on for many years. Essentially, all the necessary materials are smuggled in, mainly via Egypt. In most cases, the rockets are then manufactured in large workshops in an extensive labyrinth of underground tunnels beneath the Gaza Strip. Israel has repeatedly targeted this tunnel system – which is also used to smuggle everything from consumer electronics and wedding dresses to live animals for slaughter – and has made great progress in doing so, most recently in spring 2021. Nevertheless, the attack on October 7 makes the limits of these efforts more than obvious. And as far as the Israeli missile defense and the much-cited Iron Dome system are concerned, a large number of the incoming projectiles were of course intercepted. But there is also no doubt that a certain saturation of the defense took place – the publication of photos or videos of hits on military objects or bases (which there clearly were) will probably not be permitted by Israeli military censorship. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqwDld2R3Tg Current figures and protracted “cleansing”
The Hamas operation did not appear to be completely over even on the third day after the attack. And it could be that the figure of around 1,000 irregular fighters from the so-called Nukhba forces of Hamas and the PIJ is still an Israeli underestimate. Around 300 may have been involved in the first wave, which was then followed by forces of up to 1,000. After all, eleven (!) IDF bases and 20 Israeli communities were (partially) occupied. The reason for the often changing figures or estimates is the fact that even after 48 hours, gaps or holes in the border fence remained open and the IDF was still far from blocking them all on the second day. This meant that both Hamas and the PIJ were able to use the time to send additional reinforcements through the fence later on. And again because of this, from the morning of the third day, fighting broke out on the beaches north of the Gaza Strip, as far as Ashkelon and Kiryat Gat (ten kilometers northeast of the Gaza Strip), to Sderot in the east and down to Kfar Aza. Further south, after two days, Nahal Oz and Be’eri were still under Palestinian control, despite several Israeli counter-attacks and the constant presence of Israeli UAVs and attack helicopters. Likewise Ofakim, almost 20 kilometers to the south. Re’im – including its base – was secured again by the IDF on the second morning, and at least 260 bodies of visitors to the peace rave (!) were recovered there, which – according to videos during the event – were probably killed by the Islamists flying in on motorized paragliders. Other concert-goers (including German and US citizens) were abducted to Gaza.


In the night of October 9, blogs and X-Tweets even reported a third wave of Hamas infiltration through or around the (long-closed) Kissufim checkpoint. So some places that were already claimed to be secure obviously remain sensitive. In any case, the Israeli government ordered the evacuation of all settlements around the Gaza Strip on October 9, resulting in long lines of cars heading north. In the meantime, 300,000 IDF soldiers have been mobilized, according to an army spokesman the largest such measure in the – militarily affine – history of the small country. Several columns of various Israeli units are being pulled together in the direction of the heavily bombarded Gaza Strip, which has also been cut off from electricity, water and mobile communications – the keyword being its own population as a hostage of Hamas. Several taller buildings with antenna systems on them were deliberately brought down completely. Israel may be facing a militarily and diplomatically challenging ground offensive in (and in the ruins of) the Gaza Strip.

Further information: Article “The great failure of the secret services” of the Handelsblatt.

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