Hardly any other European country can look back on such a painful history as Poland: the repeated disappearance from the map, the rebirth in 1918 and the immediately following defensive struggle against the Soviet Union, only to be torn apart again two decades later – this time between Nazi Germany and the very same USSR (“Katyn”).
This historical experience still shapes Warsaw’s security policy thinking today. Against the backdrop of the resurgent threat from the East, hardly any NATO-state takes the Russian threat as seriously as Poland.
This is why the country has been investing massively in its armed forces for years – with the declared aim of becoming the strongest land power in Europe. And this does not appear to be changing under Prime Minister Donald Tusk: “Europe must rearm!” is his latest urgent demand.
Doubling of troops, 5 percent of GDP and shooting training in schools
Warsaw is underpinning its objectives with an unprecedented rearmament program: the core of the plan is a massive increase in troops: the current 128,000 active soldiers in the professional army and 36,000 members of the territorial defense are to grow to a total of 300,000 by 2035 – 250,000 of them active soldiers and 50,000 in the territorial reserve. This would make Poland’s armed forces larger than the German and French armies combined and behind the USA within NATO (-> current news about the US armed forces) and Turkey.
The country is also setting standards financially: the defense budget already accounts for 3.9% of GDP – around 27 billion euros – which is more than the US share of 3.49%. In the long term, the share is set to rise to 5 percent of GDP, which would correspond to around 39 billion euros per year. In addition, a 31 billion euro special fund is planned (comparable to the German “special fund”), financed via leasing models, bonds and loans – exclusively for the procurement of new material.
But Poland’s security strategy does not end with the military budget. It also aims to strengthen the population’s willingness to fight. Since the current school year, the country’s 16,000 schools have been Compulsory shooting lessons using simulators for all pupils in years 8 and 9 has been introduced. This is part of a comprehensive concept for civil-military national defense – and an expression of a security policy seriousness that can hardly be found in any other European country.
Poland’s air force: modernization on a broad front
The Polish Air Force (Wojska Lotnicze i Powietrzne, WLP) has around 16,400 active soldiers and operates around 475 aircraft at ten air force bases, including 88 fighter aircraft.
The current arsenal still includes 23 MiG-29A/UB and 18 Su-22M4/-UM3 – relics from Soviet production that are soon to be completely decommissioned. The mainstay of the fighter aircraft fleet is currently 48 F-16C/D Block 52 (-> 50 years of F-16s and no end in sight), which successively brought up to the latest technical standard.
Poland is also procuring further modernization:
- 32 F-35A Lightning II for around 4.3 billion euros (-> First Polish F-35 Husarz in the air),
- 48 FA-50PLs from South Korea as training and light multi-role combat aircraft and
- in total 16 M-346 Advance Jet Trainer from Leonardo.
The FA-50PLs are to replace the remaining MiG-29s and Su-22s – many of which have already been handed over to Ukraine (including aircraft from the former GDR, FRG and Czech Republic). According to WLP plans, however, a total of 160 multi-role combat aircraft are required. The remaining 32 jets are currently being weighed up between the F-15EX and the Eurofighter.
In the unmanned sector, Poland is planning a fleet of 1,200 drones, including 1,000 armed systems (UCAV) – mainly tactical drones, reconnaissance systems and loitering munitions. In addition, 24 Bayraktar TB2 from the Turkish manufacturer Baykar as well as an as yet undetermined number of MQ-9B Reaper from General Atomics.
The reconnaissance capabilities are also to be significantly expanded: Two used Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft (formerly from the Emirates) have been overhauled (-> Saab hands over first 340 AEW&C aircraft to Poland), and Poland is also planning to launch two of its own S-950 earth observation satellites from Airbus Defense & Space in 2027.
Air refueling and air transport are also being expanded: by the end of 2024, three C-130H Hercules from Lockheed Martin are to be procured by the end of 2024 – to replace two outdated C-130Es and supplement the existing C-130Hs. In the 2030s, the acquisition of two Airbus A330 MRTTs and five new tactical transport aircraft is planned – potential candidates: Embraer C-390 Millennium (-> The Austrian Armed Forces have opted for the C-390M) or Lockheed C-130J Super Hercules.
Focus on the army: Poland’s land forces in focus
The army (Wojska Lądowe) clearly forms the center of the Polish armament. With currently around 63,000 soldiers, it is divided into four divisions and 14 combat brigades – two more divisions are already being planned.
However, many units are struggling with personnel shortages: A division should actually comprise around 15,000 soldiers, but in reality there are often only around 10,000. In an emergency, these units are to be filled by reservists.
Once the growth program has been fully implemented, the Polish army is expected to grow to around 200,000 soldiers – including active forces and reservists. Poland would thus have one of the largest army forces in Central Europe – and would also build up enormous capabilities, particularly in the field of anti-tank defense. For example, the Swedish armaments manufacturer Saab new Carl-Gustaf M4 anti-tank weapons worth more than 1.1 billion euros. In addition to the weapons, the order also includes several hundred thousand rounds of ammunition and training equipment.
What is remarkable is not only the planned size, but also the planned modernity of the equipment: on a scale and in a quantity that makes the armed forces of other European countries – such as Austria, albeit in a completely different security policy situation – appear more like symbolic exercise contingents.
Main battle tanks: Poland focuses on mass and modernity
Poland currently has around 638 main battle tanks, including Leopard 2A4 and 2A5, PT-91 and older Soviet-designed T-72s. The latter are to be decommissioned quickly – around 300 have already been handed over to Ukraine. The Leopard 2 models are also to be transferred to the reserve and replaced by modern systems in the future.
The focus of the new equipment is on two models:
- The K2 Black Panther from South Korea and
- M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams from the USA.
Poland plans to procure up to 1,000 of the K2s in total. Currently, 180 tanks have been firmly ordered for just under 3 billion euros (-> Delivery of the K2 tanks is in full swing). The remaining 820 are to be produced as K2PL in Poland as part of a second batch and the first batch will also be upgraded accordingly.
The Abrams procurement is also divided into two batches: first, 116 used M1A1 FEPs from the US Marine Corps will be taken over and later upgraded to SEPv3 standard. A further 250 tanks are to be delivered directly in the most modern configuration – at a total cost of around 5 billion euros.
When completed, the Wojska Lądowe will have 1,366 modern main battle tanks. There are plans for 29 tank battalions, each with 58 vehicles – this corresponds to a theoretical requirement of 1,682 tanks.
Poland is therefore not only focusing on quality, but also on sheer mass – and could have the most powerful armored forces in Europe in the future.
Infantry fighting vehicles: thousands of new vehicles for the infantry
For the planned 53 mechanized and motorized battalions of the Polish land forces, a target size of 58 vehicles per unit results in a calculated requirement of 3,074 infantry fighting vehicles and armoured transport vehicles – a dimension that is unique in Europe.
According to the adapted CFE Treaty of 1999 (A-CFE), Poland is actually not allowed to operate more than 2,150 combat vehicles in this category. However, the treaty was never ratified by the NATO states and has been de facto suspended following its termination by Russia in 2023.
Modernization is already in full swing:
- 1,400 floatable Borsuk (Badger) armored personnel carriers have been ordered to replace the very outdated BWP-1 from 1973. Series production has already started at Huta Stalowa Wola. The order volume is around 10 billion euros.
- The delivery of 700 CBWP heavy infantry fighting vehicles will also begin this year. These vehicles combine the chassis of the KRAB howitzer with a remote-controlled ZSSW turret system, which is also equipped with anti-tank guided missiles.
- In addition, 400 armored 4×4 multi-purpose vehicles of the type LPR Legwan – a Polish-made version of the South Korean KIA Light Tactical Vehicle (KLTV) – will be procured. These vehicles are intended for reconnaissance and versatile support tasks.
Tube and rocket artillery: firepower on an industrial scale
Modern combat vehicles require comprehensive fire support for successful combat operations – be it for the preparatory destruction of enemy positions or in return fire. Experience from the war in Ukraine underlines the central role of artillery in high-intensity conflict.
Poland is drawing conclusions from this: The plan is to build 42 tube and 36 rocket artillery battalions – a unique project in Europe in this area too.
Around 1,000 self-propelled howitzers are needed for the barrel artillery alone. Orders have already been placed for 648 155-millimeter K9 Thunder howitzers from South Korea. So far, 48 units have been contracted and delivered – the majority are to follow from this year, with increasing involvement of the Polish defense industry. In the long term, all systems are to be upgraded to the Polish K9PL standard. In addition 48 further units of the domestic AHS Krab are in the pipeline.
Poland is also focusing on mass and range in the field of rocket artillery:
- 20 M142 HIMARS have already been ordered from the USAincluding 1,667 GMLRS missiles and 30 ATACMS missiles. There is an option for up to 200 more systems.
- At the same time, 288 South Korean K239 Chunmoo from the Hanwha defense company were ordered. Both systems have been delivered successively since 2024.
Ground-based air defense: multi-layered protective shield for Poland
In view of the threat posed by ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones (-> To the Military News drone focus), Poland is pressing ahead with the development of a multi-layered air defense system – one of the most ambitious programs in Europe.
MIM-104 Patriot systems were procured for the medium to long range. The contract worth 13.8 billion euros includes:
- 48 M903 starters,
- 12 modern LTAMDS radars,
- 12 mobile power supply systems and
- up to 640 PAC-3 MSE guided missiles.
The introduction of the Narew system – a Polish variant of the British Sky Sabre – was agreed for the short to medium range in 2023. The contract (delivery period 2026 to 2035) provides for
- 23 batteries with 46 starters and
- More than 1,000 CAMM-ER rockets from the European manufacturer MBDA.
Narew is intended in particular to protect critical military and civilian infrastructure. The total cost of the program is estimated at between 11 and 16 billion euros.
Poland is relying on the PSR-A Pilica+ system for close-range and short-range protection (VSHORAD), which will comprise up to 15 units. These consist of:
- 23-millimeter machine guns and
- GROM and Piorun guided weapons – both portable MANPADS (-> small missiles with a big impact), which have already proven their worth in the Ukraine war.
Delivery of the first Pilica+ systems is scheduled to begin in 2025 and close the lower end of the air defense umbrella.
Army pilots: Poland receives largest Apache fleet outside the USA
Poland’s army aviation forces are also being comprehensively modernized as part of the military realignment. At the heart of this is the KRUK program for the procurement of new attack helicopters, which will completely replace the 30 Mi-24 Hinds still in service.
96 AH-64E Apache Guardian were ordered – which means that Poland will have the largest Apache fleet outside the USA in the future. The package, worth almost 12 billion euros, also includes:
- 1,844 AGM-114 Hellfire missiles,
- 460 AGM-179A JAGM (Joint Air-to-Ground Missiles),
- 508 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and
- 7,650 APKWS-II (WGU-59/B) for precision-guided 70-millimeter rockets.
In an interim solution, eight AH-64s will initially be leased until series deliveries start.
Maintenance, logistics and technical support are largely provided by the Polish defense industry as part of a comprehensive offset agreement. This also includes training programs, the establishment of a composite materials laboratory and the targeted development of maintenance and development capacities. The aim is to create highly qualified jobs and promote technological sovereignty.
The Black Hawk procurement serves as a blueprint for this approach: the S-70i Black Hawk transport helicopter from Sikorsky (a subsidiary of Lockheed Martin) is manufactured at PZL Mielec in Poland – not only for the company’s own requirements, but also for export. The completion of the hundredth S-70i was celebrated there in November 2023.
To replace the outdated Mi-8/-17 transport helicopters, Poland has also ordered 32 AW149s from Leonardo (-> Poland receives first AW169) – a versatile multi-role helicopter intended for combat support, training, command and control, reconnaissance and electronic warfare.
Marine: Functional forces for the Baltic Sea
Compared to the massive armament of the army and air force, the Polish navy will remain a rather subordinate branch of the armed forces in the future – which is mainly due to its limited geostrategic range in the Baltic Sea.
Investments of around three billion euros are planned in the long term for the approximately 12,000 soldiers in the navy, which currently has 46 vessels. This also includes programs that have already begun, including the planned procurement of 22 new ships – including those that have been in service since 2013.
Core projects are:
- Three new Arrowhead 140 frigates scheduled for delivery in 2028, 2029 and 2031 (-> Rolls Royce will supply the required propulsion systems) and
- the replacement or addition of the last remaining Kilo-class submarine with three new submarines – presumably of the type KSS-III “Orca” from South Korean manufacturer Hanwha. The decision is expected in 2025.
Poland is also procuring additional equipment to improve its reconnaissance and electronic capabilities:
- Two SIGINT ships (Signals Intelligence) from Swedish manufacturer Saab for a total of 620 million euros, delivery 2027 (-> keel laying of Polish SIGINT ship),
- 36 Saab RBS-15 Mk3 sea target missiles for the navy and
- 74 Kongsberg Naval Strike Missiles (NSM) for four land-based coastal defense batteries.
The naval aviation forces are also being modernized: Four Leonardo AW101s have been ordered for anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and search-and-rescue (SAR) missions, and a further four are currently planned.
Overall, Poland’s navy is positioning itself as a compact but modernized coastal and deterrent force – focused on defence, reconnaissance and the protection of maritime infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.
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The nuclear component: Still hypothetical – but increasingly an issue
Poland currently has no nuclear weapons of its own – but the topic is increasingly being discussed politically. Most recently, President Andrzej Duda called for the USA to move its nuclear warheads stationed in Europe to Poland in order to strengthen the deterrent against Russia.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Duda explained that it was “obvious” that the United States should move its nuclear capabilities in Europe closer to NATO’s eastern flank – in other words, to Poland. When asked whether this would not send a dangerous signal to Moscow, Duda replied: “Russia also moved nuclear weapons to Belarus in 2023 – without asking anyone for permission. They didn’t hesitate for a second.”
The reaction from Washington has so far been cautious: US Vice President J. D. Vance issued an initial rejection of the demand. He has not yet spoken to Donald Trump about the issue, “but I would be shocked if he were to support an expansion of nuclear weapons to Europe”.
However, this could be a misunderstanding: Duda was probably not calling for the deployment of additional US nuclear weapons, but rather the relocation of existing ones – for example from Büchel (Germany), Aviano (Italy) or İncirlik (Turkey). In Germany in particular, nuclear sharing has been the subject of controversial debate for years – Duda’s initiative is apparently also aimed at this domestic political debate.
The fact is that the nuclear component is currently not a real factor for Poland, but it is becoming increasingly important as a strategic means of exerting pressure and as a signal within NATO.
Conclusion: Poland is upgrading – but at what cost?
Finally, it should be emphasized that most of the major projects mentioned are framework agreements, i.e. declarations of intent with flexible call-off quantities. It is therefore quite possible that not all of the announced quantities will actually be procured. However, even if only half of the planned projects are realized, Poland is likely to have the strongest land forces in Central Europe in the future.
The evaluation shows a clear pattern: around 75 percent of investment is concentrated on the army – at the expense of the air force and navy. As tank and artillery systems are significantly cheaper than modern combat aircraft or ships, they can be used to build up a comparatively large amount of striking power.
But the question remains: can Poland afford this upgrade in the long term – both financially and in terms of personnel?
Because the costs are enormous. The total cost of the modernization programme is estimated at just under 250 billion euros – of which only around 25 to 30 percent will be spent on procurement, with the rest on personnel, operation and maintenance over the entire life cycle. For an economy the size of Poland’s, this is an enormous feat of financial policy – with potential consequences for other areas of society such as education, healthcare and infrastructure.
Added to this is the demographic trend: Poland’s population is shrinking slightly – a trend that is likely to make it more difficult to recruit and maintain military personnel in the long term (Statista: Poland’s population until 2050). Nevertheless, countermeasures are already being taken – for example by introducing nationwide basic military training for young men.
The result is a bold plan – visionary, but also fraught with risk. It remains to be seen whether it can be carried through politically and socially in the long term. One thing is certain: Poland is serious – very serious.
Here for more news about the Polish armed forces.
