In the excellent summary by Lieutenant Colonel Jörg Loidolt about the possibilities of the (for years) outstanding modernization of the German Army’s Leopard 2A4 he mentioned several countries that are also working on this or – unlike Austria – are already implementing it. However, Poland is also an unnamed and important European user of the excellent German basic system. The “NATO frontline state” extends largely across the almost flat Polish plain between the Baltic Sea and the Sudeten Mountains, which is easily accessible by tanks – the topic of battle tanks is therefore far more present there than here.
Always threatened, occupied and betrayed on both sides
Divided three times in its history, wiped out for 120 years and once simply “shifted” to the west, Poland has always felt equally threatened by both sides and still does today – the author recently visited the new (2017) and still didactically discussed WW2 Museum in Gdansk and Westerplatte – strategically and militarily with a view to Russia. And as the recently sparked legal conflict with the European Union shows, Warsaw does not really trust Brussels either (despite its EU membership). Particularly in military terms and with regard to its arms procurement, Poland – as an ambitious young historian with semesters spent in the USA explains in the museum – is more oriented towards the NATO “protecting power” USA, as the recent procurement of F-16C/D and F-35A fighter jets and UH-60 transport helicopters shows. Incidentally, the historian can understand the local slogan “Wars belong in museums” as a wish, but she considers it to be naïve at best in terms of human history and at least out of place with regard to a military museum – which is not what they want to be in Gdansk. There will always be wars, they are – expressly “unfortunately” – part of human nature. There would be no point in “wishing them away”.
250 new Abrams main battle tanks
The basic tenor of this historical digression was recently confirmed once again when Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczsak announced on 14 July that Poland was to be supplied by the US manufacturer General Dynamics Land Systems as part of the so-called “Wilk program”. General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS) 250 M1 main battle tanks in the A2SEPv3 version. The contract with Poland includes the vehicles for several tank battalions, the ammunition, the low-loaders and the training. Minister Blaszczsak wants a speedy delivery, so the first tanks – the financial volume is expected to be around 19 billion zlotys (around 4.15 billion euros) – should arrive in Poland as early as 2022. They will first be deployed in the east, in the new 18th Mechanized Division east of the Vistula. According to Blaszczsak, Poland must be able to deter any potential aggressor and effectively defend its territory and population in the event of war. The minister did not mention Russia, which is continuously reinforcing and modernizing its equipment in its western districts – but he probably meant it.
Just as many Leopards and Russian “heirlooms”
In parallel to new Abrams tanks, Poland will also continue to operate its Leopard main battle tanks. In 2002, Warsaw took over 128 Leopard 2A4s from the German army and in 2013 another 119 A4s and a further 105 A5s. Of these, 142 2A4s will receive a so-called 2PL/2PL1 upgrade and 105 A5s the standard 2A7PL – a total of 247 units (see further information). In addition, 127 of the total of 301 T-72s from the Soviet era will be upgraded to the T-72AR/T-72M1R standard, while the remaining T-72s will be retired. The aim is to replace the 232 PT-91 Twardy in the longer term. These are 92 new T-72A and T-72M1s built by Bumar in Poland from 1995 and 140 upgraded T-72A and T-72M1s, designated locally as PT-91M1 and PT-91MA1.
The Polish defense contractor Huta Stalowa Wola (HSW) and Rheinmetall signed a license agreement in July for the production of components for the German company’s 120 mm tank gun in Poland. As HSW writes in a press release, the 20-year contract also includes the manufacture of the barrel of the L44 smoothbore gun. The weapons will reportedly be used to equip the Polish PL series(see report).
For comparison (not with Austria): If you add everything up (250 new Abrams, a total of 247 modernized Leopards, 127 modernized T-72s and, for the foreseeable future, the 232 PT-91 Twardy), the fleet will grow to a total of 856 Polish main battle tanks in the coming years. That is more than the two European “mainstays” of NATO combined: France operates a total of 469 tanks with 222 Leclerc and if you – generously – add the 247 weaker AMX-10RC light tanks. Germany – the bulwark of the first line against the potential armored avalanche of the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War – only has 225 Leopard 2A5/A6s and currently around 20 of 100 Leopard A7s on order. Together, Paris and Berlin therefore have 714 tanks.
Originally, Poland intended to build a modern armored force via the German-European path. The Leopard 2 was to be the starting point for this. Various user states intended to coordinate logistics and further developments via the “LEOBEN” user network; after all, the German tank type has the largest share in Europe’s tank fleets with 48 tanks. In other words, a supposedly ideal starting point for the NATO Europeans’ postulate of providing the Alliance with powerful large formations in order to relieve the USA, which has been grumbling for years.
Poland therefore tried (ultimately in vain) to expand its tank fleet in recent years by purchasing additional Leopard 2s. Older Spanish versions were too worn out and the Bundeswehr did not want to hand over any more vehicles. The self-proclaimed “framework nation army” itself has too few tanks. Before the last turning point in military policy – Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 – the German tank fleet was to be reduced from 350 to 225 tanks. Now the Bundeswehr is planning for 328 modernized Leopard 2s, divided into six tank battalions. The German army sees the need for at least 80 more tanks, but funding has so far been denied. Meanwhile, the conversion of 104 tanks to the latest A7V armament status is taking a full seven years. Incidentally, Denmark has to wait almost as long for the combat upgrade of its mini contingent of 44 units and Hungary for the same number of newly manufactured Leopard 2A7s. Coordinated investments in industrial capacities have hardly been made by the Europeans, if at all.
The “Smolensk Gate”
Poland’s extensive tank requirements are derived from the defense concept against Russia. As with the Bundeswehr during the Cold War, a mobile and powerful forward defense using tanks is intended to intercept a Russian attack close to the border – and there is currently a considerable backlog, as a recent staff exercise showed. A Russian attack was simulated, with alarming results: in the event of a confrontation without US or NATO support, Russian troops would have encircled Warsaw after just five days (see link below).
In the Polish perception, Belarus is the perfect gateway for the old enemy from the east. The extent of this was demonstrated by a carelessness on the part of the Polish defense ministry when communicating the M1 contract on Twitter. An entry that was soon deleted named the so-called “Smolensk Gate” as the future stationing location for the Abrams. At this Russian border metropolis, a plain opens up to the west between two rivers, with hardly any natural obstacles as far as Warsaw. The ideal terrain for an attack to quickly advance on Poland’s capital. Whether Russian armies heading west, or Napoleon and the German Wehrmacht heading east – campaigns have passed through this corridor for centuries.
A bleak future
As the German reservists’ association stated this August, the combat-ready Leopard 2 is only a temporary solution until the 2030s. Things look bleak in Europe for the “post-Leopard era”. The Franco-German project for a land combat system of the future, the Main Ground Combat System (Militär Aktuell reported), Poland pushed for early and comprehensive participation – but was denied access. The project is currently stalled and the caliber of the cannon is currently being debated. The French want 140 millimeters, the Germans prefer 130 millimeters …
Here for further reports on the Polish armed forces.
