This time, our five questions go to Philipp Dienstbier, Head of the Gulf States Regional Program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS). We spoke to the Middle East expert about the Houthis in Yemen, how international shipping is reacting to the threat posed by the militia and why it has not yet been possible to degrade their ability to fire on ships.
Mr. Dienstbier, the Houthis have been firing at cargo ships on their journey through the Red Sea since October 2023. What consequences does the shelling have for shipping companies, consumers and the energy market?
The sea routes off the coast of Yemen are one of the most important lifelines of world trade, especially for the import of goods by ship from East Asia to Europe, which until November 2023 ran almost entirely through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. The majority of cargo ships and tankers now bypass the strait off the coast of Yemen on their passage from east to west. However, 40 percent of merchant ships still pass through Bab Al-Mandab – mostly those that are safe from Houthi attacks due to their owners or cargo, such as tankers with Iranian or Russian oil on board. However, these ships are also repeatedly attacked, presumably accidentally. The shelling drives up freight costs, as shipping companies either have to take the longer – and therefore more expensive – route around the Cape of Good Hope or pay a multiple of the insurance costs for the risky journey through the Red Sea. This is reflected in the final costs, although the increase is only in the low single-digit percentage range because transportation costs only account for a small proportion of the total price for most products. Initially, the shelling also led to disruptions in international supply chains, but these have since been reorganized and adapted to the situation. Regional ports, such as that of the Saudi city of Jeddah, which were cut off by the attacks, have also been replaced by other routes, such as the overland route via the Arabian Peninsula.
“The business is lucrative and many people want to make money from it.”
The Houthis are supported and supplied with weapons by Iran. What routes do these weapons take to reach Yemen?
On the one hand, the weapons are transported by sea – partly via third-party ports, partly directly – to the parts of Yemen controlled by the Houthis in the north, especially via the most important port controlled by the Houthi militia in Hudaida. On the other hand, a significant proportion of the weapons are also smuggled overland to the north via criminal groups in the south of the country, which is actually controlled by the internationally recognized government. The business is lucrative and many want to make money from it – even without ideological links to the Houthis or Iran. https://militaeraktuell.at/5-sichten-auf-die-welt-015/
According to a UN report from October, the Houthis are charging fees to some shipping agencies so that their ships can sail through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden unmolested. Can you confirm this?
I can’t clearly verify that. However, I think it is not unlikely that the Houthis would try to capitalize on the situation. When distributing humanitarian aid, the militia repeatedly embezzles parts of the aid and has not shied away from extorting money from development organizations in the past. There is a system to making money out of need. However, the amount of protection money allegedly paid by the shipping companies in the UN report – 180 million US dollars (around 170 million euros) per month – seems to me to be too high based on what we hear from industry circles.
“International naval operations do not offer complete protection because there are not enough forces available.”
Why has the US so far been unable to stop the Houthis from firing on ships in international waters, thereby disrupting one of the world’s most important shipping routes?
The international naval missions have allowed several thousand transits by civilian ships and have been successful. However, it is true that they do not offer complete protection because there are not enough forces available. The land attacks by the USA, Great Britain and Israel have also damaged the Houthis, but have not been able to sufficiently degrade their capabilities. This is mainly due to the fact that the militia is hardened, resilient and well organized after almost a decade of civil war. Satellite images show that they are increasingly developing underground infrastructure to protect themselves from air strikes and their attacks are also becoming more complex. In addition to rockets and cruise missiles, the Houthis are using unmanned submarines and small drone ships. It should also be borne in mind that the militia is receiving massive support from external actors, in addition to Iran probably also increasingly by Russiawith satellite data, for example. Ultimately, the USA and its allies could only effectively combat a non-state violent actor such as the Houthi militia with a massive deployment of forces – probably also with ground troops – and would have to deprive it of its basis through a political solution to the Yemen war and state-building in the destroyed country. However, after the West’s experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, I do not see any political willingness or public support for providing the necessary personnel, material and money, especially as such an intervention would be costly and protracted.
According to their own statements, the Houthis are disrupting shipping traffic in order to force an end to the war in Gaza. How successful are they with this strategy and would the shelling actually end if there was a ceasefire in Gaza?
I consider the Houthi attacks to be of little use in achieving a peace solution in Gaza, but rather see them as an attempt by the Houthis to raise their propaganda profile in order to increase their status within the Iran-led so-called “Axis of Resistance” and ultimately distract attention from internal grievances, such as the rampant poverty and absolute lack of prospects in the areas under their control. It is fitting that the supposed “resistance” against Israel, the US and the West is elaborately staged in Houthi propaganda and on social media. The media echo that the Houthis are also achieving in our country is helping them. Should there be a ceasefire in Gaza, my expectation would be that the Houthis would temporarily cease their attacks, but only to replenish their arsenal of weapons and escalate again in the future if it seems politically opportune.
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