The long-standing nuclear dispute with Iran finally seems to have been resolved diplomatically. In military terms, however, the agreement still promises considerable potential for conflict in the coming years. An analysis by Georg Mader.
On July 14, after a year and a half of negotiations, an agreement was reached on Iran’s nuclear program. The majority of the international community celebrated this as a victory of diplomacy over military force; the region, in which the Islamic Republic is competing with Saudi Arabia for regional dominance, would not need (another) war. And that is why there are high hopes that the plan, with its deadlines and complex verifications by the IAEA, will hold. In Tehran too – after all, apart from nuclear details, Iran’s security forces are also concerned with a kind of “material rebirth”. During the 18 months of negotiations, agreement was reached in many areas (such as the step-by-step release of frozen Iranian funds), but Iran’s considerable arsenal of ballistic missiles was never part of the talks. According to Iranian Foreign Minister Jawad Jarif, these were “military equipment” and “means of defense” and were “not up for discussion”. Days before the breakthrough in July, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi also brought the lifting of the UN arms embargo into play as a condition, explicitly including that against the procurement of Iranian missile equipment. According to Araqchi, these embargoes were “imposed in the context of suspicions about the purely civilian nuclear program and must therefore now be lifted”. The astonishing thing: they really did fall. The USA and Europe actually agreed, albeit with the inclusion of transitional periods of five years for conventional major weapons systems such as fighter aircraft and eight years for ballistic missile armaments – rather short given the duration of today’s procurement processes. The new UN Security Council Resolution 2231 was adopted unanimously in New York on July 20, so much was conflict avoidance worth to the West. Russia and – somewhat more cautiously – China had been calling for this for some time. Immediately after the Geneva interim agreement, President Vladimir Putin declared the delivery of S-300PMU-2 long-range air defense missiles to Tehran, which had been suspended due to the embargo, to be revived. In fact, the delivery is likely to start this year. This is made possible by a passage in UN Resolution 2231, which allows individual deliveries for explicit defense purposes by special permit even within the suspension period. Further procurements are likely to follow. Russian and Chinese arms companies and government officials are already beating down Tehran’s door, with the aim of siphoning off the emerging Iranian market worth up to 150 billion US dollars in the best possible way. The international companies are unlikely to have any difficulty in the arms talks, as the Iranian armed forces and Revolutionary Guards have a great need. In the aviation sector, experts are discussing the planned procurement of 100 Russian Su-30SM jets, and Chinese J-10Bs are also likely to be an issue. According to the Iranian news agency FARS, an agreement on the joint production of helicopters has also been concluded with Russia. There are also plans to initiate the establishment of Russian-Iranian engineering centers and industrial parks in both countries. In addition, major investments will probably flow into Tehran’s missile program in a few years’ time.
Dozens of stealth companies around the world are already procuring the materials needed for this, such as gyroscopes and metals like tungsten. However, it is questionable whether longer ranges are also being researched before the upcoming investments. The range circles of possible Shahab 4 or Shahab 5 missiles circulating on the internet, which even include England, are more likely to be fiction; nothing is known about new tests since the 2011 explosion in Alghadir (in which missile mastermind and Revolutionary Guard General Hassan Moghaddam was killed). At the time, the Israeli secret service Mossad was suspected of being the mastermind, and it is hardly surprising that Israel is one of the fiercest critics of the recently concluded agreement. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of a “historic mistake” and fears that the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which is supported by Tehran, will be rearmed. However, the 150 billion US dollars will probably also benefit the Iranian economy, with the energy sector in particular likely to benefit.
