This time, our five questions go to Brigadier Philipp Eder, military commander of Carinthia since fall 2023. We asked the Ukraine expert from the Armed Forces why Russian President Vladimir Putin is now talking about peace with Kiev, whether a ceasefire is likely and what the USA’s goal is in the Ukraine war (-> current news from the Ukraine war) are pursuing.
Mr. Brigadier, a few days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin told the world that he was prepared to freeze hostilities along the current front lines. How serious is Putin about this ceasefire offer?
I think he is serious, because the original war aims do not seem achievable at the moment. These are the capture of the whole of Ukraine, the replacement of Volodymyr Zelensky’s government and the neutralization of the Ukrainian army. There is also the danger that if the Russian army suffers too many losses, the mood at home will change at some point. I suspect that Putin is counting on freezing the conflict in order to possibly continue it later. On the other hand, Putin knows that the Ukrainian side will not agree to his terms. After all, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ten-point peace plan provides for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from all conquered territories, including Crimea. It is therefore relatively easy for Putin to play the dove of peace now, knowing that no agreement will be reached.
“It is relatively easy for Putin to play the dove of peace now, knowing that no agreement will be reached.”
How would the situation have to change for both sides to be prepared to deviate from their maximum demands and clear the way for realistic peace negotiations?
Both the Ukrainians and the Russians still believe that they can achieve their goals on the battlefield. I therefore see no willingness on either side for a compromise solution. If the situation remains as it is – i.e. that neither side can make decisive territorial gains – there could be a ceasefire that freezes the conflict. For this to happen, however, Ukraine would need security guarantees, above all from the West, but also from the Russians, that Moscow is no longer interested in attacking further parts of Ukraine. Whether this automatically means a NATO-accession of Ukraine is a political question.
Recently, the media have often used the term “war-weariness”, meaning that the EU population is tired of the war in Ukraine. Do you agree and how could this mood affect the war?
Since the end of the Yugoslavian wars, Europeans have believed that eternal peace has broken out on the continent. They do not want to admit that this is no longer the case and wish for a return to the situation before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. All the more so as the economic sanctions against Russia are perceived to be harming European nations and money is being diverted from other areas such as education, social and health services through rearmament measures in the European Union. It is therefore understandable when the European population says stop this war. The Russian leadership knows this and is trying to exploit it. That is one of the reasons why Putin is now offering peace negotiations.
Alongside the Middle East and the Pacific region, Europe is another source of conflict that ties up US resources. What scenario is Washington aiming for with regard to the war in Ukraine?
For the US, this theater of war is an unwanted distraction from its actual strategic center of gravity, which it has shifted to Asia. The USA is currently concentrating primarily on China, both economically and militarily. Anything that Europe cannot solve itself is therefore unpleasant for the USA because it does not actually want to invest any resources here. The sooner the war is over, the better the Americans would like it. What Washington fears is an escalation that could at some point lead to NATO-states are also affected by this war, because then the question of the alliance automatically arises. I therefore think that the USA will continue to support Ukraine until this war is over in order to prevent it from getting too close to Western allies. However, this also means that Putin must not win a complete victory over Ukraine. After all, there are fears that if the West were to let Putin get away with taking Ukraine, this could motivate him or any successor to further conquests in Europe.
“Meanwhile, I AM somewhat skeptical as to whether the Russian approach can be judged from a purely rational point of view. And that’s what makes the whole thing so difficult to predict.”
Many experts are now assuming that even if Putin were to take Ukraine, he would still not advance any further into EU territory and thus into NATO territory. What do you think?
Viewed rationally, one can certainly come to this conclusion. At the same time, however, it has to be said that the attack on Ukraine was already an irrational decision, because nobody in the West had or has any intention of attacking Russia in any way. So this whole fear of NATO’s eastward expansion, the feeling of being surrounded by NATO, is completely irrational in my view. That’s why I’m now somewhat skeptical as to whether Russia’s actions can be judged from a purely rational point of view. And that’s what makes the whole thing so difficult to predict.
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