Our five questions this time go to Heinz Gärtner. We asked the Middle East expert what reform steps we can expect from Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s new president, and what leeway he has vis-à-vis Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Mr. Gärtner, Masoud Pezeshkian was elected Iran’s new president on 6 July. Did the election of the reformer come as a surprise?
Conservative and reformist presidents alternate periodically. This time, Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformer, was elected Iranian president. He was one of the 80 candidates who were admitted. The conservative Ebrahim Raisi had ruled for three years. Nevertheless, it was surprising that Pezeshkian was able to prevail against four conservatives and hardliners. https://militaeraktuell.at/konflikte_welt-006-was-war-was-ist-was-wird/
What room for maneuver does Pezeshkian now have vis-à-vis Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?
Although Masoud Pezeshkian expressed his loyalty to the supreme leader, the latter felt compelled to criticize Pezeshkian’s positions during the election campaign. Iran should not get too close to the US and question the goals of the revolution. In addition, the supreme leader sets a framework, especially in foreign policy. This includes the relationship with the “axis of resistance” and support for friendly militias in the region.
“Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed a willingness to reform, for example with regard to the implementation of the dress code, greater orientation towards the West, relations with neighboring countries and the nuclear program.”
What can we expect in terms of domestic policy? Pezeshkian rejects the headscarf requirement, for example, how far could a social opening go?
Many Iranians do not believe in an improvement and stayed away from the election in the first round. They doubt that even a reformist president could really bring about change. In fact, a president cannot call Iran’s political system into question. Nevertheless, there have been openings under reformist presidents. Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed a willingness to reform, for example with regard to the implementation of the dress code, greater orientation towards the West, relations with neighboring countries and the nuclear program. Russia and China should no longer have exclusive priority. If Pezeshkian is courageous, he can motivate a section of the population that wants reforms and that goes far beyond his voters. Domestically, reform presidents often face fierce resistance from conservative institutions. The elected but conservative parliament often passes laws to hinder reforms. This mainly concerns stricter penalties for not wearing the headscarf or obstructing negotiations on the nuclear program. The new president can only implement a very small part of the reforms. Nevertheless, there are no other possibilities for change than through reforms from within. Under both Presidents Khatami and Rohani, there were openings in the cultural sector and a relaxation of dress codes.
Pezeshkian announced his intention to end the economic crisis by negotiating an easing of sanctions with the West. Are there signs of an easing of tensions in relations between Iran and the West?
Ebrahim Raisi was unable to fulfill his election promises. Economic growth is stagnating, although President Raisi had promised an eight percent increase. Unemployment is at around ten percent, although Raisi had promised to create one million jobs. The poverty rate has risen. However, the Iranian population is most affected by inflation, which remains constant at 40 percent. The sanctions imposed by the West have been extended and have worsened the economic situation. Masoud Pezeshkian will try to lift some of the sanctions. This means at least a partial revival of the nuclear agreement. He has also promised to fight economic corruption. There are opportunities for presidents to shape foreign policy. President Khatami made offers of cooperation to the West, but these were answered by US President George W. Bush, who placed Iran on an “axis of evil”. President Rohani was able to negotiate the groundbreaking nuclear agreement (JCPOA) with the West, which was rejected by US President Trump. However, its implementation will also depend on the new US president and the Europeans. https://militaeraktuell.at/das-bundesheer-hat-einen-neuen-heissluftballon/
To what extent can or does Pezeshkian want to bring about a change of course in relations with Israel?
For the time being, Masoud Pezeshkian will endeavor to further improve relations with the Gulf states. However, if they stick to the Arab peace initiative of 2002, according to which recognition of Israel is only possible within the framework of the 1967 border lines, Iran will not be able to avoid joining this initiative in the medium term in order to avoid remaining isolated. However, one term of office is too short for this.
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