This time, our five questions go to Brigadier Berthold Sandtner, military analyst at the National Defense Academy. We asked the expert what speaks against a new Lebanon war, what such a war would mean for the region and whether Hezbollah’s threat to fire missiles at Cyprus is realistic.
Mr. Brigadier, the rhetoric between Israel and Hezbollah has intensified in recent weeks. Both emphasize that they are ready for war. What are the arguments against such a war from the Israeli or Hezbollah perspective?
Since October 7, Hezbollah has clearly avoided engaging in direct warfare with Israel and opening an actual northern front – something that Hamas would have expected. This has not happened because Hezbollah knows that if it challenges Israel to a third Lebanon war, it could end in military defeat. It could be forced to retreat to the north if Israel attacks towards the Litani River. On the Israeli side, nobody apart from the hardliners actually wants another war because Israel is already severely challenged militarily. A lot of forces have had to be mobilized for the campaign in Gaza. With this second focal point in the north, Israel is in danger of overextending itself operationally. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has therefore also announced that he will reduce the forces in Gaza and transfer troops from the south to the north. In the event of a possible Lebanon offensive, there is also a risk that Israel will become embroiled in a prolonged war there, as it did in 2006, with a correspondingly high number of casualties among the Israeli armed forces. https://militaeraktuell.at/bundesheer-kauft-sikorsky-uh-60m-black-hawk/
Should Israel decide to launch an offensive in Lebanon, what military objectives would the Israeli armed forces pursue?
Between 60,000 and 70,000 civilians had to be evacuated from the security zone along the Israeli side of the border due to Hezbollah shelling. This is the reason why the hardliners are pushing so hard for an offensive. They support the idea of folding the security zone over to the other side of the border. That means pushing Hezbollah 20, 30, maybe 40 kilometers to the north. This would mean that Hezbollah weapons with a shorter range, i.e. mortars, grenade launchers, anti-tank tubes and the like, could no longer be fired at Israel. Such a security or buffer zone could be the target of an Israeli offensive. Of course, this would not stop Hezbollah from firing rockets at Israel. https://militaeraktuell.at/5-sichten-auf-die-welt-005-was-war-was-ist-was-wird/
You mentioned the Hezbollah rockets that reach far into Israel. What about a possible Hezbollah ground offensive?
Hezbollah is a well-equipped armed force. However, the conditions for a ground offensive are now extremely poor for Hezbollah. They might have been better at the beginning of October, when Israel was not yet prepared for an attack. In the meantime, however, Israel is very strongly positioned on the border with at least four divisions. I don’t think it’s possible that Hezbollah will now succeed in a surprise maneuver against Israel.
“I doubt that there would be any joint action by the Lebanese armed forces and Hezbollah against an Israeli attack.”
What role could the Lebanese army play in the event of another Lebanon war?
As the political situation in Lebanon is extremely volatile, this question is difficult to answer. It is difficult to answer whether the Lebanese army would be deployed against the Israeli armed forces in the event of an Israeli intervention, or whether Beirut would see it as a war between Hezbollah and Israel. It is true that there is always criticism from official Lebanese bodies when the Israelis bomb Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. But there is no intervention by the Lebanese armed forces in this regard. Moreover, the Lebanese armed forces and the Lebanese authorities in southern Lebanon do not really play a role because it is Hezbollah land. I therefore doubt that there would be any joint action by the Lebanese armed forces and Hezbollah against an Israeli attack. I think it is much more likely that official Lebanon will try to find a political solution to prevent a war between Israel and Hezbollah on Lebanese territory. The USA is also exerting pressure to this end. https://militaeraktuell.at/die-letzte-fahrt-der-koerting-tragoedie-ueber-fischamend/
What would another war in Lebanon mean for the region and how seriously should Hezbollah’s threat to fire rockets into Cyprus be taken if it allows Israel to use airports in the event of war?
It can be assumed that an actual war between Hezbollah and Israel would lead to a massive intensification of the rocket threat from Lebanon into Israel. Hezbollah would no longer concentrate only on the border areas, but would extend its fire to the whole of Israel. It can also be assumed that Hezbollah is coordinating with other stakeholders in the region, as can be seen time and again. For example, the Houthis have the technical means to fire rockets into Israel. There are still parts of Hamas in the Gaza Strip that have not been defeated. This means that rockets are still flying into Israel from the Gaza Strip and this rocket terror would certainly be extended to the whole of Israel. That is one thing. The second, of course, would be that the danger of terrorist attacks in Israel would increase. For example, by groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, IS, Hamas and so on, because they see a new upswing in their own cause, so to speak. Rockets on Cyprus are technically possible, but I think this is very unlikely because Hezbollah would create a very large political opponent. Therefore: in terms of range yes, realistically no.
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