This time, our five questions go to Bernhard Seyringer from the Austria Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES). We spoke to the political analyst about China’s growing influence in Europe, its interests in Ukraine and a possible trade war between Brussels and Beijing.
Mr. Seyringer, for the first time in five years, Xi Jinpin has undertaken a European tour again. Why now?
The USA is facing presidential elections in the fall. From a Chinese perspective, the election of Donald Trump is possible. Beijing is therefore once again trying to drive a wedge into transatlantic relations with the “divide and rule principle”. This is being fueled by an attitude in Europe that expresses more foreign policy concern about a possible President Trump than about cooperation with one of the worst regimes of the present day. I don’t think that the European “de-risking” efforts are being taken particularly seriously and that they want to react to them. Shortly before his visit to Beijing in April, the German Chancellor made it clear that he was open to any humiliation. He then opened his TikTok account.
“Beijing is trying to drive a wedge into transatlantic relations with the divide-and-rule principle.”
China is building its first plant for electric cars in the EU in Hungary. Production facilities for trains and electric vehicles, in which China is involved, could also be built in Serbia in the near future. What does this mean for the EU?
These production facilities will further increase the opportunities for economic blackmail and influence exerted by Beijing. Many administrations in the European capitals and in Brussels are still determined to maintain ideological orthodoxy in the sense of upholding principles – even if their opponents do not adhere to them and exploit them to their own advantage. Beijing has always observed this and exploited it strategically and tactically at the right time. China’s foreign policy credo “tao guang yang hui”, which translates as “hide and bide”, actually means exactly that: waiting for the right time and then striking.
While the EU is on the side of Kiev in the Ukraine war(-> current news from the Ukraine war), China is supporting Moscow. What are the possible common interests of Beijing and Brussels with regard to an end to the war?
Ukraine is interesting for Beijing in two, possibly three respects. Firstly, peace negotiations through a Chinese initiative would mean a significant image boost for China as a “global player”. Secondly, a large proportion of Ukraine’s (pre-war) arms exports went to China. A friendly deal would probably be hoped for here. Thirdly, Ukraine as a (low-cost) production site for Chinese companies, which is already connected to the “Belt and Road”, right on the doorstep of the desired Western European target markets, is more than tempting for China. This is what they wanted to achieve with Belarus before the war, but the planners in Beijing now see the opportunities in Ukraine much more positively, as it is assumed that the infrastructure will be built and expanded with generous EU funding.
A European analyst recently said that Hungary is China’s Trojan horse in the EU. Would you confirm that? To what extent can Hungary help China politically?
There is no shortage of Trojan horses. Usually only Hungary is singled out: Luxembourg, Malta, Portugal and yes, even San Marino, are very open to Chinese requests. Until recently, Italy was too. Of course, such influences can always be politically helpful.
During Xi’s tour of Europe, the threat of punitive tariffs imposed by the EU on Chinese electric cars and solar panels, among other things, was a topic of discussion. Conversely, China is having European brandy imports investigated. How realistic is a trade war between China and the EU?
The trade war is coming from China. And it is proceeding almost exactly according to Beijing’s timetable. If I may be so bold: it was former Chinese President Jiang Zemin who predicted a “period of strategic opportunities” at the 2002 Communist Party Congress. For a period of around two decades, he said, there would be great opportunities for China. After that comes the confrontation with the West. Beijing has been preparing for this for a long time. Incidentally, the clearest formulation of the trade war is the strategy paper “Made in China 2025” published in 2015 – China’s “Industry 4.0”, but with a completely different focus.
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