This time, our five questions go to Heinz Gärtner, Chairman of the Advisory Board of the International Institute for Peace (IIP) in Vienna. We asked the political scientist what significance Greenland has for US President Donald Trump and how realistic an annexation to the USA is.
Mr. Gärtner, Donald Trump wants to integrate Greenland into the USA – with the help of the military if necessary, as he says. Why is Trump so interested in Greenland that he is even willing to accept a conflict with European allies?
In his inaugural speech, Donald Trump, like Kennedy, spoke of God-given destiny to overcome new frontiers. His plan would be to raise a flag on Mars; for Kennedy, the goal was still the moon. Donald Trump has announced his intention to transfer Greenland, which belongs to Denmark under international law, to US ownership through purchase or military pressure. Greenland is of geopolitical and geo-economic importance not only because of its raw materials, but above all because of its location. It is about control of the Arctic and the Northeast Passage, which Russia, China and Canada also covet. The USA would redefine its borders in the western hemisphere, in which neither Russia nor China, but also not the Europeans, should interfere. A historical analogy would be the “Monroe Doctrine” of 1823, which warned foreign powers, especially European ones, to interfere in the Western, i.e. American, hemisphere.
“Trump wants to use tariff threats to enforce his maximalist goals worldwide, including against Europe.”
EU states such as Germany and France rejected Trump’s plans regarding Greenland. Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she did not have the imagination to think that Trump’s plans could ever be implemented. Are Trump’s options really limited or does Frederiksen lack imagination?
Trump’s claim to Greenland is serious and not just a fantasy. There have been similar claims many times in the history of American presidents. In 1803, President Thomas Jefferson bought a large part of the territory that is now the USA from France. This acquisition became known as the “Louisiana Purchase”. In 1867, the USA bought Alaska from Russia, and in 1946 it tried unsuccessfully to buy Greenland. The incorporation of Texas and the occupation of Mexico from 1845 to 1848 were violent territorial acquisitions. In 1895, the USA annexed Hawaii under President Grover Cleveland. Trump himself sees himself in the tradition of President William McKinley (1897-1901). He conquered Cuba, Puerto Rico, Guam and the Philippines during the Spanish-American War. Trump wants to use tariff threats to enforce his maximalist goals worldwide, including against Europe.
Greenland is a self-governing territory of the Kingdom of Denmark and has the right to declare itself independent through a referendum. Should this happen, Greenland could decide to join the USA – how realistic is that?
Greenland has emphasized that it does not want to belong to either Denmark or the USA. Nevertheless, Greenland is economically vulnerable. With promises of investment, Donald Trump can exert pressure on an independent Greenland to join the North American economic area. The price could be that the USA expands its military presence on the island.
What interest do other countries such as Russia and China have in Greenland?
Russia had already expanded its trade and military bases in the Arctic during the Cold War. It was more or less defensive. For example, Russia placed Russian flags on rock bases to assert its influence. As the ice in the Northern Passage is melting, these sea lines are becoming increasingly important. The USA now wants to catch up, from Alaska to the Arctic. Understandably, Russia and China want to prevent this land grab and expansion of US control. US power projection will further provoke Russian power projection (i.e. military presence without land conquest). There will be a new Iron Curtain in the Arctic. There is now an arms race in the Arctic. However, Russian-Chinese cooperation is not without conflict. The planned Chinese “Polar Silk Road” is competing with Russian claims to access. Both nuclear powers are focused on controlling trade routes such as the Northwest Passage. The Arctic has become a “Russian priority”.
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Trump is not only targeting Greenland, but also wants to push for control of the Panama Canal and real estate projects in Gaza. Is the USA developing into a “rogue superpower”, as Foreign Affairs magazine headlined at the beginning of February?
The area is described as a “strategically important region” in the US government’s Arctic strategy. Trump is likely to aim to move the US border further east in order to contain Russia and China and control the Europeans. According to Trump, Canada should be integrated into the USA as a step in this direction. Donald Trump also laid claim to the Panama Canal, which is to be recaptured under military pressure if necessary. The Gaza Strip is to be bought and controlled. That doesn’t sound like a claim to peacemaking.
Here for the other articles in our “5 questions to” series and here for another article on the topic: What does Trump want with Greenland?
