Boko Haram’s approach has changed. Instead of open fighting, the Nigerian terrorist organization is now increasingly relying on assassinations and bomb attacks. This also requires a different strategy from the troops of the African Union.
The Nigerian terrorist group Boko Haram has been internationally known at least since the kidnapping of more than 200 girls from a school in Chibok in April 2014. However, media interest in the situation in northern Nigeria died down just as quickly as the commitment of prominent personalities to rescuing the girls had built up. However, by swearing allegiance to the caliph of the so-called Islamic State (IS), Boko Haram has recently gained new significance in international security discourse. In the meantime, several neighboring countries that are also affected by the terrorist group’s activities have intervened in the conflict. According to international organizations and NGOs, almost 20,000 people have been killed in the fighting so far. 2.5 million people have been displaced and are now living as refugees. The conflict originated in 2009, when Boko Haram leader Muhammad Yussuf was killed in police custody. Since then, the situation has worsened under the leadership of Abubakar Shekau and attacks on security force facilities have increased. While bomb attacks and attacks with motorcycles were used in the beginning, the group was soon able to successfully engage both the military and the police in battles lasting several hours. However, the more intensive the national and international military action against Boko Haram becomes, the greater the likelihood that the terrorist group will increasingly return to assassinations and bomb attacks. Since the turn of the year 2014/2015, for example, Boko Haram has increasingly been using girls as suicide bombers. They are often less than ten years old. The group’s weaponry has changed over the years and has been adapted to the requirements of the respective tactics. The origin of the weapons is likely to come from various sources – one of which is the Nigerian army. Time and again, Boko Haram fighters succeed in capturing heavy weapons, armored vehicles, pick-ups and ammunition from the armed forces in the course of attacks. In this context, external observers are not the only ones to question whether the equipment was actually captured by the rebels or whether its loss is not rather a euphemism for possible deals between members of the armed forces and Boko Haram. According to Chadian President Idris Déby Itno, one of the main reasons for Boko Haram’s growing strength and continued success is the lack of coordination between the affected states. In fact, the Nigerian government only took action under pressure from neighboring countries. Cameroon, but especially Chad and Niger, took military action against Boko Haram not only on their own territory, but also on Nigerian territory – and sometimes with great severity. On August 29, 2015, for example, ten men were executed in Chad who had been convicted of attacks in the capital N’Djamena in June of the same year. Remarkably, Chad reintroduced the death penalty for terrorist activities just one month after these attacks. An international force of the African Union (AU) has had some success in recent months.
Nevertheless, resolving the conflict will not be easy. On the contrary, it is likely to be difficult to fight Boko Haram in the long term as long as the economic and ecological conditions for the people in northern Nigeria do not change. The drying up of Lake Chad, which is the source of livelihood for many people, is just one of several problems that are helping the terrorist group to gain strength. The complex ethnic and religious relationships in the region also make rapid reconciliation difficult. High-ranking Nigerian officers consider a military solution to be impossible, or as former Chief of Staff Martin Luther Agwai put it in an interview with The Guardian: “It is a political issue; it is a social issue; it is an economic issue, and until these issues are addressed, the military can never give you a solution.”
Text: Gerald Hainzl
Commentary by Brigadier Walter Feichtinger: Chaos benefits the terrorists
The terrorist organization Islamic State now also has an offshoot in Nigeria in the form of Boko Haram, which professes allegiance to the caliphate and has sworn allegiance to the self-proclaimed caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in Syria. In addition, there is IS in Libya, which quickly took advantage of the chaos in the country as a result of the civil war from summer 2014 and the failed peace efforts to date. As the attacks on IS in Syria and Iraq have so far not been crowned with success, both the West and the Arab world must increasingly prepare themselves for the fact that the terrorist organization will continue to wreak havoc and look for opportunities to expand. Three conditions can be identified that enable IS or comparable terrorist groups to gain a foothold and carry out their mischief. Firstly, there are dysfunctional state leaders who deliberately exclude, marginalize or even terrorize parts of the population. This leads to disappointment, frustration or open resistance and generates sympathy for radical solutions – for example in Iraq, where the Sunnis were systematically marginalized after the Shiites came to power and thus pushed into the camp of al-Qaeda and IS. Secondly, there are weak governments that are unable to exercise state control over the entire territory, resulting in uncontrolled regions – this can be observed in Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as in Mali and Nigeria. Chaotic conditions such as those in Libya are a third factor that favors the development and long-term consolidation of extremist groups. The longer there is no rapprochement between the hostile governments in Tobruk and Tripoli, the stronger IS will become in Libya. These developments make it clear why the current political situation favors terrorists in many places and how important it is to avoid chaos and find negotiated solutions.
