The Franco-German-Spanish collaboration on Europe’s largest armaments project, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), is apparently on the brink of collapse. There have been signs of ruptures for some time – Militär Aktuell has repeatedly reported – but now the project may finally be at an impasse.
Following a meeting with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez last week, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed his displeasure: “We are not making any progress with this project. Things cannot continue as they are at present. We will try to find a solution by the end of the year.”
Rafale instead of FCAS?
On September 23 Dassault-CEO Eric Trappier spoke plainly at the opening of a new Rafale production facility in Cergy-Pontoise – and practically gave the FCAS a death certificate. Although the focus was on expanding production capacities in view of export orders for the UAE, Indonesia and India, when asked about the “languishing 6th generation”, he responded unequivocally: “Let the Germans do it on their own – we can do it anyway.”
And Trappier continued: You are always open to cooperation, but leadership is essential. “The best athlete must lead. Dassault is in a position to build the next European fighter jet on its own from start to finish – we have the know-how, the experience and the facilities.”
Europe’s “testament” falls apart
The FCAS, known as SCAF in France, was to become Europe’s 6th generation fighter jet – a symbol of joint action. However, since the ILA 2018, the program has suffered from internal power struggles: France claimed a leadership role of up to 80 percent via Dassault, Germany insisted on equal rights and wanted to give Airbus Defence & Space and Spain demanded its fair share. Since then, the negotiating table has gone round in circles – over governance, technology rights and work shares.
Trappier has now made it clear: “We have no more time. If Europe hesitates, it risks falling behind permanently.” With a view to Ukraine warChina (J-20, J-36, 6th generation prototypes, -> News on China’s J-36), Russia (Su-57) and US projects such as NGAD (-> News on the NGAD F-47), he warned: “Can we afford to waste years on internal disputes? No, we can’t. Rivals won’t wait.”
Serious consequences loom
Should the mega-project actually fail, the consequences would be serious: Europe would lose valuable time, the technological gap with the USA, China and Russia would grow, the industrial base would fragment further and the joint visibility on the global market would shrink.
Although the defense ministers Sébastien Lecornu and Boris Pistorius have repeatedly tried to find a way out, FCAS in its current form is apparently on the brink of collapse. Airbus works council chairman Thomas Pretzl is already publicly questioning the benefits of the partnership with Dassault and considers it conceivable that the project could continue without France.
The Ministry of Defense has long been considering alternatives. Germany has deepened its cooperation with the UK in 2025 – an agreement that generally provides for “closer industrial and capability cooperation”. At the same time, Berlin is examining concrete options for joining the British-Italian-Japanese rival project GCAP, which is already well advanced (-> GCAP project on track). The project structure has long since been finalized, a joint venture has been established, the program office in Reading has been opened and the first demonstrator in Warton is two-thirds complete. The first flight is planned for 2027. Observers therefore currently see little realistic chance of a German lateral entry – the program is already too far advanced.
According to the British media, Berlin could simply join GCAP as a buyer and perhaps get involved in the drone platforms that are to accompany it.
Sweden might be an alternative: Saab works within the framework of the state-financed program KFS – Koncept för Framtida Stridsflyg is working on its own 6th generation study, which will run until 2030. Defense Minister Pistorius confirmed on 24 September that talks were already underway with London and Stockholm.
Here for more news about Airbus Defense and Space and here to further news about Dassault Aviation.
