Europe’s forecourt: crises wherever you look?

The political upheaval in Belarus, the conflict in Ukraine, war in Syria, protests in Lebanon and upheavals in northwest Africa: there seems to be more and more instability in and around Europe. Or is the impression deceptive? We asked Christoph Bilban, Gerald Hainzl and Stephan Reiner, three experts from the Institute for Peacekeeping and Conflict Management at the National Defense Academy, for clarification.

Dear Sir or Madam, More and more instability and conflicts seem to be brewing around Europe. For weeks now, even in previously peaceful Belarus, there have been mass protests by the population and head of state Lukashenko is on the brink of collapse. Is an overthrow inevitable?
Christoph Bilban: With the obviously falsified results of the presidential elections on August 8, a strategic conflict between Russia and the EU has opened up in Belarus at record speed, the outcome of which is very uncertain. The EU Parliament has now made it clear that Lukashenko is no longer recognized as a legitimate president, and for Russian President Vladimir Putin, too, Lukashenko is no more than a necessary evil. For Putin, it is absolutely clear that Lukashenko is only interested in maintaining his power. But that does not make him a reliable partner.

so Lukashenko has fallen between two stools?Bilban: After moving closer to the EU before the elections, Lukashenko is now increasingly relying on his strong brother Moscow. He has closed the borders with EU neighbors Poland and Lithuania, the border with Ukraine is being increasingly controlled and he is fueling the narrative of an externally controlled conflict by all means. Now that media attention in the West is waning, we are reaching a very dangerous point. There is a threat of a massive surge in repression against the opposition, with even more arrests. Lukashenko argues that, from his point of view, the elections were proper and that he is therefore the legitimate ruler. For him, the protests are therefore tantamount to an attempted coup and he will try with all his might to stifle them. As in Belarus, protests in many countries in North Africa and the Middle East marked the beginning of many current conflicts, didn’t they?Stephan Reiner: Yes, and the common starting point for this is the Arab Spring in 2011, which quickly spilled over from North Africa into the Arab core countries and even made a brief stop on the Arabian Peninsula – Oman, for example, was shaken to the core. The Arab Spring then erupted in full force in Syria and the impact of poverty, lack of prospects and the corruption of the elites can now be seen above all in Lebanon. The ammonium nitrate explosion in Beirut gave new impetus to the wave of protests, which incidentally began six months earlier and was triggered, for example, by the government’s desperate attempt to tax WhatsApp messages. If you then also consider the permanent state of war with its southern neighbor Israel, the effects of decades of wars with its eastern neighbors and Turkey’s regional political aspirations, it is hardly surprising that the people of Lebanon have finally had enough. https://militaeraktuell.at/strategische-einschaetzung-der-krisen-im-vorhof-europas/ Would the protests have reached a similar dimension without the explosion?Reiner: There would still be protests, but certainly not with the intensity and certainly not with the international attention that we are seeing now. The explosion led to the former mandate power France in particular becoming more involved again and putting Lebanon back on the European agenda.

“So the explosion can be seen as a “game changer”?Reiner: In my view, yes. Lebanon is a country that is now almost 100 percent dependent on food imports, and the port in Beirut is the main hub for this. The famous building that was left standing after the explosion was a grain store that was filled with food stocks until the end of the year, and these have now been destroyed. The catastrophe in the port has therefore had a life-threatening impact on many people in the country, but for the first time it also offers the potential for real change. Until now, Lebanon has been a prime example of the fact that, despite all the changes and political reshuffles, the people involved have always remained the same at the end of the day. So the need is now great enough for a profound regime change?Reiner: The economic pressure is much greater than in the past. The country is on the brink of bankruptcy, the Lebanese pound is depreciating and imports cannot be processed due to the destroyed port. This is eroding the resilience of the state and economic structures in the long term, so in my view there is no way around real change. Bilban: If Lukashenko is actually overthrown, a change of elite can also be expected in Belarus. The question is what will actually change and how quickly this change will happen. In Ukraine, many people expected everything to improve quickly with the change. However, the reform process, which has started but is only progressing slowly, is now causing great disappointment. Gerald Hainzl: It will also be interesting to see how things develop in Mali. As is currently the case in Belarus, there have been massive protests by the population, as a result of which the military forced the president to resign. Elections are now due to take place within a 12 to 18-month transition period and it is to be expected that the old elite will be replaced by a new elite. A real change that will bring the country forward in one big leap is nevertheless rather unlikely. There is simply not enough room for maneuver.

. “To what extent do foreign influences play a role in the conflicts?Reiner: Political developments in the Middle East are known to be significantly influenced by Washington, Paris, London and Moscow. However, as we have seen in Syria, the opposition can hardly be addressed. Those who were received as the new Syrian vanguard in Western state chancelleries were mostly opposition forces who had been living abroad for decades. In addition, the Orient and Occident – although they cannot actually be separated – are still not seen as a whole by all players. In many cases, the Mediterranean is still not seen as a common economic and security policy area. Hainzl: But you have to give most decision-makers credit for having recognized the problem in the meantime. The so-called “Barcelona Process”, which began in 1995, was the first attempt to bind the southern countries closer to Europe and, where possible, to influence them in the European sense. Bilban: Against this background, it is interesting that Syria of all countries exploded in the Middle East, making it the only country in the southern dimension that was not a full member of the European Neighborhood Policy because it was a dictatorship. For this reason, Belarus also did not fully benefit from the European Neighborhood Policy, which many critics believe also helped to strengthen the regime. Should the EU have shown more commitment?Bilban: The problem is that the EU could not have done otherwise. If Belarus had been fully accepted into the Neighborhood Policy, all conditionalities and any means of exerting pressure for improvements in the country would have been dropped. At the same time, the values behind the European Union would have been betrayed. Hainzl: In addition, in order to achieve greater commitment, the different interests of all EU member states must be reconciled. Problems are often viewed too one-dimensionally. Until around the start of the refugee crisis, the issue of migration from Africa was discussed exclusively in the context of development policy; since then, it has only been considered in the context of security. The EU’s new migration strategy will hopefully succeed in putting the issue back on a broader footing.

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