A tectonic shift is taking place in European security policy. The designated German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron believe it is necessary to prepare Europe for a worst-case scenario: a NATO without American security guarantees and without Washington’s nuclear shield.
After the sensational meeting between Donald Trump, James David Vance and Volodymyr Selenskyj in the Oval Office on Friday (-> Selenskyj vs Trump & the end of NATO), French President Emmanuel Macron has now signaled his willingness to open the debate on an independent European nuclear deterrent.
“If European colleagues are looking towards greater autonomy and deterrence capabilities, then we must open this very profound strategic discussion. It has very sensitive and very confidential components, but I am available to open this discussion,” Macron said in an interview with Portuguese broadcasters RTP1 and RTP3 during a state visit to Portugal.
Emmanuel Macron also includes the UK in his vision of a European nuclear deterrent. According to the French President, the possibilities range from nuclear sharing for non-nuclear-armed European states to the stationing of nuclear-equipped French Rafale fighter jets in Germany. At the very least, however, it is about a nuclear security guarantee for Europe, which could mean an extension of French deterrence to the entire continent.
At the same time, Macron emphasized France’s full autonomy in the area of nuclear weapons. His country is not dependent on anyone for the production, possession and use of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems by air and sea. “I am prepared to discuss this ultimately sovereign capability if it enables us to build a larger European force,” emphasized the French head of state. Macron thus appears to be opening the door further to talks on a European army.
Particularly noteworthy is his formulation that “the vital interests of Europe are now also included in the vital interests of France”. This marks a clear upgrading of Europe in France’s strategic thinking – one step above the previous statement that “France’s vital interests have a European dimension”.
Initial conceptual considerations envisage the deployment of nuclear-armed Rafale fighter jets along the EU’s eastern border. The respective national air forces with their fighter aircraft would provide escort protection. In addition, EU states could contribute their capacities for airborne early warning and aerial refueling to such long-range missions.
The French Air and Space Forces have already proven several times that they are capable of such operations. In 2013, four Rafale jets from the St. Dizier airbase completed a mission over Mali: after a flight distance of 5,500 kilometers, six aerial refuelings and a flight time of 9 hours and 45 minutes, they landed in N’Djamena in Chad. Such missions could be planned and carried out at short notice – possibly within 48 hours.
A multinational air force exercise on the territory of one or more European countries, similar to the quarterly “Poker” deterrence exercise conducted by France, would require several months of preparation.
France has around 300 nuclear weapons that can be deployed from four strategic submarines as well as from Rafale fighter jets. These weapons are a central component of the French deterrence strategy and make France the fourth largest nuclear power in the world – behind the USA, Russia and China.
