In view of the increasing number of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, there is growing concern in Kiev about an escalation of the conflict and an imminent large-scale Russian attack. Moscow is reassuring – an offensive is only “conceivable as a reaction to provocations by Ukraine or other forces”.
The starting point for the current discussions was a warning by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi on November 26 about alleged plans to overthrow the government: “In a few days, as early as the beginning of December, forces could try to overthrow the government,” said the Ukrainian President, referring to intelligence information and tape recordings. These are said to prove that Ukraine’s richest man, oligarch Rinat Akhmetov from the Donbas, is also involved in the plans. When asked whether Russia had a hand in this, Zelenskyi said he could not talk about it. However, Ukraine has full control over its borders and is prepared in the event of an escalation with its neighboring country: “We are facing challenges – not only from the Russian Federation and a possible escalation. We also have internal challenges.”
Mr. Akhmetov has already described the accusations as “a complete lie. As a citizen of Ukraine and as the country’s largest investor, taxpayer and employer, I will continue to protect and support a free Ukraine, a free economy, democracy and freedom of speech.”
Is Russia preparing an attack?
Remarkably, on the same day that Zelenskyi brought up a possible political coup, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Service, Brigadier General Kyrylo Budanov, warned that Russia had massed troops around Ukraine’s borders and was preparing for an attack by late January or early February. Such an attack from the east would likely include artillery and tank attacks, followed by air strikes on key air defense and command structure targets, amphibious landings in Odessa and Mariupul, and a “smaller incursion” across neighboring Belarus. The attack Russia is preparing, Budanov said, would be far more devastating than anything seen before in the conflict, which began in 2014 and has killed around 14,000 Ukrainians.
On the same day, the new Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told the Washington Post that it was still unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin had already decided on an attack. Details such as maps and satellite images from Ukraine’s top military official on the development of a potential attack by Russia show that the country is already surrounded by tactical groups of Russian battalions or battle groups. Russia’s large-scale military exercise “Zapad 21” from earlier this year, for example, would illustrate that the Russians can simultaneously deploy more than 3,500 airborne and special forces simultaneously. According to Budanov, Russia is constantly building up capacities, increasing troop numbers and weapons systems in occupied Crimea and deploying systems such as Iskandar short-range missile systems and other weapons near its eastern border. And he scoffed at suggestions that winter weather conditions would deter the Russians from attacking at this time of year. “That’s hardly a problem, neither for us nor for the Russians.” According to Budanov, a possible escalation of the conflict would initially be carried out using hybrid and psychological means. “A series of ‘psychological operations’ (note: so-called PsyOps) will then be launched, some of which are already underway, in order to destabilize Ukraine and undermine our ability to fight. They want to stir up unrest through protests and demonstrations by showing that the people are against our government and that our government is betraying its people.” According to Budanov, these efforts also include the ongoing anti-Covid-19 vaccination protests fueled by Moscow. Further unrest could be fomented in connection with the economy and energy supply. Budanov even brings the notorious Russian mercenary company Wagner into play: A total of 30 “Wagner members” responsible for attacks in Ukraine had reportedly made their way to Belarus, were supposed to be returned to Ukraine for imprisonment, but were instead smuggled into Russia beforehand with the help of the Belarusian KGB. The ongoing border conflict between Poland and Belarus surrounding refugees who want to cross the Polish border into Europe is also part of these efforts. Budanov: “They want to make the situation in the country more and more volatile and dangerous and create a situation in which we have to change the government. And if they can’t do that, then military troops will take over. In this respect, our assessments almost coincide with those of our American colleagues.”
Details of the Russian deployment
According to details from Budanov’s briefing provided to Militär Aktuell by an officer and military advisor at the Permanent Mission of Ukraine to the international organizations in Vienna, Russia has already gathered more than 92,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian borders and is preparing for an attack at the end of January or beginning of February.
Here is the wording of his statement (in italics):
The Russian Federation is continuing its armed aggression against Ukraine and is taking measures to prevent the integration of the Ukrainian state into European security structures. The main goal of the Russian Federation’s Ukraine policy is the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and its complete control. At the same time, Russia’s leadership has set red lines for NATO to move closer to its borders and for Ukraine to become a full member of the alliance.
In order to achieve its political goals, the Russian Federation launched armed aggression against Ukraine and significantly expanded its military potential in the south-west. Since 2014, two ‘all-weapon armies’ have been deployed in the southern and western military districts and an army corps has been stationed in occupied Crimea. The number of ground troops of the armed forces of the Russian Federation near the border with Ukraine has increased from 9,000 to 92,000 soldiers. The offensive potential of the Russian troops has grown considerably due to a significant increase in tanks, artillery systems and combat aircraft. A total of around 1,200 tanks, 1,600 artillery systems, 330 aircraft and 240 helicopters are now concentrated near the Ukrainian border.
Since the beginning of 2021, the Russian Federation has steadily increased the number of troops near the Ukrainian border by deploying tactical battalion groups (note: so-called BTGs), transferring units of the 76th Assault Division to Crimea and reinforcing the Black Sea Fleet with warships and boats from the Baltic Fleet of the North.
In April, Russia carried out a rapid deployment of such BTGs near the Ukrainian border and in occupied Crimea. The number of BTGs has varied since the beginning of the year. It was 28 in February, 46 in March and 53 in April, then fell to 45 in May, 39 in June and 37 in July, before rising again to 44 in August. It then rose to 51 in September and fell back to 38 in October. The figures also include temporary increases in connection with the “West-2021” exercise maneuver carried out jointly with Belarus. Subsequently, however, a considerable number of troops and armaments remained in the western military district. In November, 40 BTGs were stationed near the Ukrainian border. This is the Kremlin’s escalation strategy with periodic de-escalation of tensions – we call this a ‘controlled escalation’. Initially, Russia significantly increases the number of troops near Ukraine and reduces them after a certain time – but only partially. However, the total number of troops is growing steadily. In any case, the assembled troops are ready to carry out a comprehensive operation against our state.
In addition, the Russian armed forces have recently intensified reconnaissance of the territory of Ukraine by deploying reconnaissance aircraft and those for technical and electronic intelligence gathering. To this end, Il-20, Su-24MR and Su-34 reconnaissance aircraft, electronic reconnaissance teams of the ground forces, reconnaissance satellites and ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet are deployed.
Moscow is also continuing to militarize the Crimean peninsula and has significantly increased the number of exercises in the Black Sea and Crimea this year. In April 2021, the Russian Federation conducted large-scale exercises of airborne troops, the Black Sea Fleet and the Air Force. For the first time this year, all major exercises of the Southern Military District (we are talking about exercises of 49 armies, 58 armies and seven assault divisions) took place on occupied Ukrainian territory. Offensive operations, landing and anti-landing operations were practiced. C2 systems for the southern military district were also deployed. Even battleships from the Caspian Flotilla were involved; they were taken overland into the Black Sea. During these exercises, two divisions of territorial troops were stationed on the Crimean peninsula using the capabilities of the 943 mobilization center in the Novoozerne settlement. In total, the Russian Federation conducted 90 exercises at various levels in Crimea this year.
In addition, Moscow has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to use existing weapons to potentially destroy Ukrainian and NATO air and naval aircraft in the Black Sea. The Kremlin continues to block sea areas in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea under the pretext of conducting exercises that restrict freedom of navigation in the region.
In 2021, Russia is also actively developing the territory and military infrastructure of Belarus. Moscow fully controls the territory of Belarus militarily, including through the use of its armed forces. Bilateral exercises of ground, air and airborne troops on the territory of Belarus are constantly conducted. Under the pretext of creating a joint training center, the S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile unit of the 1st Air and Missile Defense Troop was deployed to Grodno during the ‘West-2021’ exercise in August. In September, three Su-30SM aircraft of the 6th Air Force and Air Defense Army were transferred to Baranovichi airport. Russia has also resumed strategic flights in the airspace of Belarus. The flights of Tu-22M3 and Tu-160 aircraft were recorded on November 10 and 11. According to the Russian and Belarusian leadership, such flights are now carried out regularly.
Under the pretext of the so-called migration crisis, Russia conducted a training of a tactical battalion group of the 76 separately on November 12. Russia is constantly training on such issues on the territory of Belarus. At the same time, the significant accumulation of illegal migrants by the special services on the territory of the Republic of Belarus (about 15,000 people) and the failure of their breakthrough to Poland and Lithuania may pose a threat to Ukraine. This is because the wave of migration is also likely to head towards our territory.
Under these conditions, the following negative consequences of the migration crisis are predicted for Ukraine, the Baltic states and Eastern Europe:
- Increase in the level of terrorist threats due to favorable conditions for the infiltration of radical terrorist groups.
- Increasing the likelihood of armed clashes on the border with Belarus.
- The deterioration of the socio-political situation is accompanied by an increasing burden on state budgets due to the concentration of illegal migrants.
The situation in eastern Ukraine. The current situation in the conflict zone in the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine is characterized by the following aspects:
- Regular provocations against Ukrainian troops, who are accused of violating the ceasefire.
- The presence of Russian weapons banned by the Minsk agreements (including rocket artillery, tanks, mortars) near the line of contact.
- Reconnaissance of the positions of units (subdivisions) of the Joint Forces with the help of Russian UAVs.
- Sniper fire along the line of contact.
- Stockpiling of weapons, ammunition, fuel and so on supplied from Russia to the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.
- Blocking the work of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission.
- The number of shelling attacks on our units and peaceful settlements has increased compared to 2020. On average, weapons are used around ten times a day, 40 percent of which are artillery systems.
The military intelligence of Ukraine has identified the following peculiarities of the activities of the Russian occupation forces in eastern Ukraine:
- Nine mobilization exercises have been carried out since the beginning of the year. Around 30,000 reservists took part in the exercises.
- Increase in the number of Orlan-10 UAVs for reconnaissance of our positions and rear areas and the use of UAVs in the quadcopter category in the strike version.
- The number of inspections of the troops of the 1st and 2nd Corps by the commissions of the Russian armed forces increased.
- Since November 8, a commission of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces has been working in the 1st and 2nd Army Corps.
The Russian Federation has further strengthened the air defense of the occupying forces. Since the beginning of this year, Russia has additionally deployed four Casta-2E1 radars in the occupied territories. The headquarters of the Southern Military District plans to strengthen the air defense system by deploying additional air defense systems in the occupied territories and near the Ukrainian border.
Another threat to Ukraine is the granting of Russian citizenship to the population of the occupied territories. To date, around 650,000 people have received Russian passports. In September, around 220,000 people took part in the elections to the Russian State Duma.
US assistance
In addition to the US assistance already promised and delivered, including Mark VI patrol boats, Javelin anti-tank systems and AN/TPQ-53 air defense radar systems, Ukraine recently requested additional air, missile and drone defense systems and electronic jamming equipment in response to the escalating situation, Budonov said. Patriot missile batteries as well as anti-missile, artillery and mortar systems are also on Ukraine’s wish list.
According to Budanov, the AN/TPQ-53 systems have already been used to great effect. He said the Javenlin systems had also been used against Russian forces in the occupied eastern sectors. These, along with Turkish-made Bayraktar drones used against Russian-aligned separatist artillery forces, have significant psychological deterrent value, which has – so far – made the Russians think twice about a potential attack. Incidentally, one reaction to the Javelin anti-tank missiles deployed in occupied Crimea is likely to be the very improvised-looking “roof racks” that have already been spotted on several Russian T-80 tanks. This is intended to protect the vehicles against attacks by loitering ammunition and other armed unmanned aerial vehicles. The device may well have been inspired by the destruction caused to Armenian armored vehicles by drone-launched munitions during the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh last year. However, it is doubtful whether it will protect against the much heavier Javelin.
Nevertheless, Ukraine needs more help from the USA, according to Budanov. “I don’t think it’s enough for us at the moment,” said the brigadier general about the current and promised US aid for Ukraine. “We need more. No country other than Ukraine has an openly smouldering military conflict with Russia. And this has been the case for seven years. That’s why we are sure that the US should give us everything we didn’t get before. And right now. It’s the right time for this. Because after that it could be very late or too late.”
Russia: “Hollow attempt to stir up tensions.”
Russia has dismissed concerns about its military activities near Ukraine. “Russia is not threatening anyone,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Nov. 25, according to the Associated Press. “The movement of troops on our territory should not be a cause for concern for anyone.” Suggestions that Russia is planning an invasion “are a hollow and unfounded attempt to stir up tensions. Of course we take certain ‘measures’ to ensure our security when our adversaries act defiantly near our borders. We cannot remain indifferent to this, we must be on our guard.” Peskov went on to accuse “other countries of stirring up trouble in the region” and referred to the activities of the US Navy in the Black Sea and “other provocations near our borders.” On the possibility of an invasion, Russia’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyansky, said on the same day: “Russia has never planned such a thing, has never done it and will never do it – unless we are provoked by Ukraine or someone else.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recalled: “Yes, this script that we’ve seen in the past is to claim these ‘provocations’ as justification for doing what is intended and planned anyway, which is why we’re looking at this very carefully and through various means.”
