Niger was the last democratic state in the Sahel region of West Africa – last summer, the military took over there too. This is not good news for Europe, as it threatens to leave it even further behind geopolitically in the region. An analysis by IFK expert Gerald Hainzl.
Since 1950, there have been more than 200 coups d’état in Africa, and since 2021 alone there have been seven successful takeovers of power (see also chart below) that did not follow the script of democratic changes of power. The general reactions to these have been very different – in any case, they have not necessarily helped to cast European Africa policy in a particularly positive light. Depending on the political point of view, the events are contradictorily understood as coups against democracy or as an anti-colonial act. However, it is often forgotten that kleptocratic and nepotistic governments or rulers do not necessarily have the support of the population, that elections are falsified or that low voter turnout makes this democratic act a farce and that a coup can be perceived by the population as liberation. https://militaeraktuell.at/sonderlackierung-zu-50-jahre-tornado/ A careful analysis of the reasons for the changes of power would reveal their diversity and the different conditions in the individual states. However, European discussions focus less on the African states and their needs and more on the questions of whether the EU’s Sahel strategy has failed and whether Françafrique is now actually in a state of dissolution. But also whether Russia can become or has already become a geopolitical challenge in Africa. In any case, there is a risk that Russia could use migration from Africa as a hybrid weapon against Europe.
The reactions of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to the recent coup d’état in Niger are understandable insofar as the states with elected representatives want to prevent a domino effect of military coups. Even though the ultimatum of threatening the new regime with military force expired without a reaction and diplomatic solutions have once again come to the fore, it still shows the fear of imitation. The new government in Nigeria in particular, which had been in office for less than 100 days at the time of the coup and had already taken unpopular decisions such as the end of subsidies on petrol and the end of currency support, showed a certain nervousness in its reactions. Nevertheless, the wheel of time continues to turn inexorably. In the meantime, the former G5 Sahel states of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have founded the Alliance of Sahel States for the purpose of collective defense and mutual support, probably also under the impression of the ECOWAS threats. The aims are to fight terrorism and organized crime as well as a commitment to provide assistance in the event of an attack on a contracting party. However, this will have little impact on citizens. In most of the countries where coups have taken place, the governments have not been able to provide the population with basic state services. In addition, the people’s trust in the respective security forces is de facto non-existent. The population’s loyalty lies with those who can maintain these services. And in many cases, these are radical groups that successfully spread the narrative “No one can protect you if you cooperate with state institutions”. In addition, the members of terrorist groups usually come from and live in the community. However, the Tuareg in Mali have now also terminated the agreement with the government and could dare to stage another uprising.
What does this mean for Europe? The EU’s Sahel strategy was and is aimed at combating terrorist groups, stemming migration to Europe and securing raw materials for Europe. As the key states in the strategy, Mali, Burkina Faso and most recently Niger, make cooperation more difficult due to the EU’s “focus on cooperation with legitimate governments and regional organizations” (EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen), the EU wants to develop a “mutually beneficial partnership that is of interest to both Europe and Africa”. The EU expects the Sahel region to be destabilized for years to come and sees Russia’s ambitions in Africa and increasing terrorism as a threat to security and prosperity. The aim is therefore to develop a new strategic concept and present a new Africa strategy at the next EU-Africa summit. https://militaeraktuell.at/als-partner-gemeinsam-vorwaerts-kommen/ Due to European interests (migration, resources, terrorism), the question of a value-based or interest-driven policy arises anew for the EU with every coup. Two points in particular should be taken into account if cooperation between the two continents is actually to work on an equal footing: The quiet criticism from African states that the EU is on the ground with too many actors who do not necessarily speak with one voice provides a subtle indication of the possible institutional organization of future European engagement. However, the unequal treatment of non-constitutional transfers of power is also often cited by Africans with reference to Chad. With regard to a new strategy, the EU and its member states could certainly take advantage of the current situation and break new ground in their dealings with African partners. This would require three basic prerequisites: firstly, listening to African partners to find out their interests. Secondly, demanding results and not just demanding that measures be taken. And thirdly, strategic patience. Even if it currently seems as if Europe and the EU will be the losers in the geopolitical game, the tide can quickly turn again.
