The fighting in Ukraine continues. We spoke to Colonel Markus Reisner, Head of the Development Department at the Military Academy: What are Russia’s objectives with the attack? Does the current fighting pose a threat to Austria? And what would an annexation of Ukraine mean in the long term?
Colonel, what goals is the Russian Federation pursuing with the military attack on the whole of Ukraine?
President Vladimir Putin clearly defined the goals to be achieved in his speech on February 21 and at a press conference. Ukraine is to become demilitarized and neutral. It should also not join NATO. Russia does not want missiles that pose a threat to Moscow to be stationed on Ukrainian territory.
There is currently no direct threat to Austria. How would the conflict have to escalate for it to have a direct impact on Austria?
A current analysis of the attacks by Russian troops shows that the intention is to take Ukraine in phases. There are no signs of a further attack on NATO countries. For example, there are no large attack groups in the vicinity of the Baltic states. However, an advance to the western border of Ukraine would bring Russian troops directly to the border with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. This could lead to an aggravation of the situation.
Is the resistance of the Ukrainian armed forces more stubborn than expected?
The Ukrainian armed forces are trying to defend important transportation hubs and, above all, the capital. However, due to the ongoing Russian attacks using long-range missiles and the air force, as well as the massive use of artillery and rocket launchers, the Ukrainian armed forces are increasingly faced with the dilemma of already having to fight a war of attrition. The capacity of the Ukrainian armed forces to sustain this in the long term is very limited, despite the arms supplies from NATO.
Is a continuation in the form of a guerrilla war to be expected after a military defeat in Ukraine?
If a rapid seizure – possibly even of the whole of Ukraine – is successful, the country will initially be in a state of shock. The installation of a puppet government by the Russian occupiers is likely. The establishment of a resistance movement, especially in the west of the country, will only be possible after preparations have been made. Once this has been completed, it is quite conceivable that there will be ambushes and attacks on the occupying forces. This would lead to a renewed escalation and possibly be linked to repression from the Russian side.
Is it already possible to estimate what the annexation of Ukraine will mean in the long term?
A possible outright annexation of Ukraine would mark a turning point. The seizure of Ukraine represents a clear breach of international law. Russia is thus calling the international order (UN Charter) into question. Even the current attack will have far-reaching consequences for European and transatlantic security policy.
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