A Japanese officer friend of mine – formerly also defense attaché in Vienna – pointed Militär Aktuell to an interesting interview from last year in the course of New Year’s wishes. In it, an F-15J squadron commander explains to CNN-Indonesia the constant pressure exerted by China and Russia on the human resources and material situation of the Japanese Air Force (JASDF).
The 40-year-old Lieutenant Colonel Takamichi Shirota is commander of the 204th TAS (Tactical Fighter Squadron) at Naha Air Base in Okinawa (see video of an alert take-off below) and vividly describes in the interview the increasing pressure from approaches and interceptions in the Japanese Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), which usually call his pilots to their jets several times a day. For the last Japanese budget year, he cites 947 alert take-offs and intercept missions, a figure that has risen steadily over the past ten years. Around 55 percent of these take-offs are against reconnaissance and SIGINT/ELINT aircraft of the Y8 and Y9 series as well as H-6 bombers of the PLAAF (Chinese air force) and PLANAF (Chinese naval aviation), which sometimes approach accompanied by J-11 fighters (Chinese Flanker series). In the north, you also have to deal with approaching Russian Tu-95, Tu-160 or Tu-22M aircraft (albeit less frequently), which are probably mainly there to test the Japanese as US allies and for technical reconnaissance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vg7nRundIEA The so-called “south-western region” around the Senkaku Islands, on the other hand, is clearly about territorial motives. The rocky and uninhabited islets are under Japanese control, but are also claimed by China as the Diaoyu Islands. Just last June, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian affirmed: “Diaoyu Island and the adjacent islands are territories affiliated with China. China is determined to uphold territorial sovereignty.” Shirota describes the active means of the Self-Defense Air Force as the only way to protect Japanese territory, including airspace: “The situation is tense. We never know what to expect in the air. It is possible that, as is usually the case, we will only observe them as they turn and depart from our identification zone. But it could also be that we have to confront them or that we have to accompany them on their flight along our identification zone.”
The number of JASDF alarm launches (scrambles) to identify unknown military aircraft entering the ADIZ rose from around 300 per year in 2009 to a peak of almost 1,200 in 2016 (see chart above). In 2017, the number fell to around 900. In 2018, there were around 1,000 alarm launches, and in 2019 the aforementioned 974. That is an average of up to three missions per day. The Japanese are increasingly having to deal with several aircraft at the same time. It was only on 22 December that a joint Chinese-Russian patrol of 19 aircraft was accompanied over the Japanese Inland Sea for the first time, a development that was also reported by the air forces of South Korea (western KAIDZ zone) and Taiwan as well as regional media. It should be noted, however, that the military flights never go beyond the 12-mile limit of Japan’s territorial waters and sovereign airspace.
In an international comparison, the JASDF is still the absolute leader in flight hours for active airspace surveillance and control. According to Shirota, few other nations are “under such pressure”. When it comes to the number of take-offs of fighter aircraft against potential enemy targets, no Western air force comes close to Japan, Shirota continues. The statistics prove him right: the jets of all European NATO members together recorded less than half the number of alert launches reported by Japan in 2019. The strategy of the Chinese air force, which operates with six times as many military aircraft, largely without budget concerns, also has a massive impact on the service life of the 215 or so Japanese F-15J jets. These carry the main burden of the alert service and are ideally suited for this in terms of climb performance, operational radius and maneuverability, but are of course severely challenged in terms of operational readiness and material fatigue. Especially as the Japanese sometimes take off with four aircraft to be on the safe side, for example when Chinese J-11s or Russian Su-35s are involved. At the same time, E-2C AEW&C early warning aircraft also take off to coordinate interception and avoid tactical surprises. If this Chinese power projection via “salami slicing” flights continues, Tokyo fears the need for early replacement of the F-15J jets or early service life extensions or overhauls, which they actually wanted to save for the Eagles. In any case, with these figures, many of the European peacetime air forces would statistically already be through with their annual flight hours in February of each year.
According to Shirota, there is not much that can be done about the current problem in the short term. If Japan were to accept Beijing’s aerial activities unchallenged, other countries could also gradually accept China’s claims of “bulling” at the very least. This concern drives Japan to believe that it must continuously demonstrate its determination to uphold the sovereignty of its territory. A tangible response to any Chinese intrusion is therefore essential. In contrast, it might be possible for the North to adopt a reduced air defense posture of “observational strategic silence” and only intercept Russian ADIZ intruders at irregular intervals. This would make Japan’s air defense activities strategically unpredictable while maintaining deterrence and reducing the number of sorties by half. However, the squadron commander points out that such tactical issues must be decided at the highest levels of command. For 2021, the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) requested more funding in view of the high alert launch numbers and three new areas of defense defined by Tokyo – space, cyber and electronic warfare (EloKa) – in a security situation described as “severe”. On September 30, the MoD proposed a defense budget of 5.49 trillion yen (around 43 billion euros) for fiscal 2021 (always counted from March to the end of February the following year), which, if approved, would mean a 3.3 percent increase in the current defense budget and is mainly due to the development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons in North Korea as well as China’s growing military capabilities and its perceived increasingly brash demeanor.
Back in mid-December 2018, the Japanese government announced that the 42 F-35As previously ordered would be increased by 63 F-35As and 42 J-35B JSF vertical landing fighters (for around 19 billion euros) to replace the older, non-upgraded half of its 99 F-15J fleet. In terms of range, the Lightning-II cannot compete with the F-15, but it is more difficult to detect with enemy radars. However, it is likely that China and Russia will take the opportunity to collect more signal and signature information from the F-35, which is also operated by the South Korean air force, during their approaches. Naha is around 400 kilometers away from Senkaku as the crow flies, so it would also be possible to deploy F-35Bs from the smaller Shimoji airfield, which is only 200 kilometers away. Incidentally, the “colorful” F-4E-Kaj and RF-4E Phantom are no longer an option for such missions; the last aircraft were decommissioned at the end of 2020. However, Japan – the former imperial navy had the world’s best carrier weapon in the form of the “Kido Butai” in the early days of the Second World War – could soon be presented with another interesting strategic option. The navy is getting (something like) aircraft carriers again, even with a traditional name. In October, an important clarification came when it was announced that the two relatively new helicopter carriers of the Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) will not be equipped with a ski jump ramp after all. Instead, on the “JS Izumo” (DDH-183, in service from 2015) and on the “JS Kaga” (DDH-184, from 2017), the currently trapezoidal bow section of the flight deck will be converted into a square shape, similar to that on the amphibious LHD assault ships of the “Wasp” and “America” classes of the US Navy (USN). Like those, the two ships will have surfaces with a heat-resistant coating. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfHs8eoY8BM These modifications will allow the maximum 27,000-ton, 248-metre-long ships to safely operate the ordered 42 F-35B short takeoff/vertical landing version of the Lightning-II by reducing turbulence during takeoff and allowing the aircraft to take off and land on the port side of the flight deck, maintaining a safe distance from the side superstructure (island). Also, the Phalanx/RAM close-in air defense system (CIWS) now located on the flight deck on the starboard bow will – necessarily – be relocated to a lower lateral platform. According to a JMSDF spokesperson, the adaptations will be carried out in two main phases to coincide with the ships’ regular upgrade and overhaul programs, which take place every five years. “JS Izumo” is currently in the process, “JS Kaga” will follow in 2022. In 2019, the US Marine Corps was also asked to support the initial operation of the type on the modernized ships with USMC F-35Bs, similar to what was done with the two new British carriers. Before that, however, the introduction of the 17 V-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft delivered since 2017 will begin; they will fit on the existing elevators.
