The President of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Martin Jäger, has warned the Bundestag of a dramatic escalation of the security situation in Europe. According to Jäger, Russia could “switch from hybrid operations to a direct military confrontation” at any time. Moscow has long regarded the European Union as a “warring party”.
According to the German intelligence chief, Russia is systematically testing Europe’s resilience – using a wide range of means: Acts of sabotage, cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns and espionage were just as much a part of this as targeted provocations through airspace violations (
-> Poland shoots down Russian drones
), covert operations and the intimidation of opposition members abroad.
“The boundaries between peace and war are becoming increasingly blurred,” said Jäger. “At best, there is an icy peace in Europe, which can turn into a hot confrontation at any time. We must prepare ourselves for a further escalation of the situation.”
According to the head of the BND, it is particularly dangerous that the Kremlin interprets Europe’s political and military restraint as weakness. “Our enemy never rests – and we are already under attack,” Jäger warned urgently. Moscow’s aim is “to destroy
NATO
undermine NATO, destabilize European democracies and divide the societies of the West in order to drive them into self-destructive paralysis.”
Russia’s strategic calculation is therefore to make economically superior Europe dependent in the long term – through energy policy, disinformation and targeted influence on public opinion and elections. “We see a new quality of confrontation in the accumulation of all these activities,” says Jäger.
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In the spring, Danish and German intelligence services stated that a direct Russian attack on NATO countries was unlikely before 2029. However, Jäger’s latest warning indicates that Berlin no longer rules out such a scenario. The Austrian
military analyst Gustav Gressel recently put the probability of a Russian attack on NATO at 100 percent.
.
According to Gressel, the presidential election in the United States can be expected at the end of 2028. While the period leading up to the inauguration will be “turbulent” after that, Russia – strengthened by China and North Korea – will continue to be in a good position and will also be experienced in war. Gressel therefore described 2029 as a “relatively critical year” for a possible attack.
