The open war between Israel and Iran threatens to cripple Israel’s air defenses: According to security expert Patricia Marins, the stocks of missiles and ammunition to defend against Iranian attacks are already greatly reduced after just a few days of intense fighting.
Marins’ articles appear in “The National Interest” and “Defense Arabia”, among others. On the latter platform, she had already written two months ago in an article on possible US involvement against the Islamic Republic of Iran the pessimistic assessment that “the insistence on an invasion of Iranian territory could lead to a major military catastrophe with a high risk of aircraft losses – which, however, has absolutely not materialized since 13 June”.
She continued: “Iran must not be underestimated. The strikes exchanged between Israel and Iran do not reflect the actual destructive power that a full-blown war could inflict on the entire region. An attack on Iran is far more than just the use of bunker-busting bombs. The USA maintains at least ten military bases in the region and has around 50,000 soldiers stationed there. Tehran has enough missiles and drones to hit these targets – which could lead to a larger war and involve other countries. Everything to do with Iran is complex and requires thorough analysis.”
Their current projection of Iranian offensive and Israeli defense capabilities also tends to be pessimistic – at least from Israel’s point of view – but appears quite conclusive.
“Lack of defensive missiles could render Israel defenceless – and force the US to go to war”
“The massive transfer of US tanker aircraft to Europe, the increased activity at US bases in the region and the arrival of the Nimitz Group lead me to believe that the US is preparing an attack on Iran,” says Marins. “The main reason is not the Iranian nuclear program – Israel already knew that it could not eliminate it on its own, and the US could only achieve this with a ground offensive. Rather, it is about stopping the rocket fire on Israel, which is rapidly decimating Israel’s defensive missile stocks.”
Israel currently has three Arrow-3 batteries and two David’s Sling batteries to defend against ballistic and cruise missiles. In view of hundreds of Iranian missile launches in recent days and the current interception doctrine – two defense missiles per ballistic missile, three per hypersonic missile, followed by another two – Marins assumes “that Israel has already fired around 700 to 800 missiles from these two systems.”
Both systems were put into operation in 2017 – seven years ago. The USA produces around 500 Patriot missiles a year, while MBDA produces around 130 Aster 30 missiles per year. Marins estimates that Israel has produced around 100 to 150 David’s Sling missiles annually – which adds up to around 1,050 missiles over seven years.
For the Arrow 3 system – of which only three batteries exist – it assumes a supply of 500 to 600 missiles. Even if Israel had received two additional US THAAD batteries (of which only nine exist worldwide), a maximum of 200 to 300 additional missiles would be added.
In total, Israel had around 1,600 missiles from the two long-range defense systems at its disposal before the conflict began – around half of which could have been used up within a few days. Marins therefore assumes “that Israel currently still has around 900 to 1,100 interceptor missiles – enough for four to five days of protection at the level of previous Iranian attacks.”
The Nimitz fighter group rushed in from the South China Sea will temporarily strengthen Israel’s air defenses, but only for a few days. The lack of defensive means is also the main reason why individual Iranian missiles were not intercepted – as can be seen on some videos of Israeli residents.
Israel – and Iran – in a race against time
The defense analyst says: “Israel is in a race against time to prevent Iran from continuing large-scale attacks and will need US support to do so.”
For example, the GBU-57 bombs, which can only be used by B-2A bombers – the heaviest conventional bombs in the world – could severely damage Iranian missile silos through vibrations, even if they are anchored deep in the rock. According to Marins, many of these targets have already been mapped by reconnaissance drones.
“The Israelis know the risk they are exposed to – the Iranians, on the other hand, don’t know how long they can continue after the losses of launchers they have suffered so far. This could open a window for an agreement – although I am convinced that Israel is currently in a better position.”
Classification by other experts
The German military expert Fabian Hinz explained in an article in “Die Zeit”that it was probably an Iranian strategy “to exhaust the defenders’ ammunition supplies with numerous, continuous attacks”.
However, Hinz assumes that the USA would deliver supplies in this case – which is apparently currently happening. What is often overlooked, however, is that the costs per defense missile are considerable: With the Iron Dome system, one missile costs around 43,000 euros (50,000 US dollars); with the Arrow system, these costs per missile are as high as 1.74 million euros (up to two million US dollars).
The crucial question, however, is whether Iran has enough missiles to maintain the current attack tactics. According to a US estimate from 2022, Tehran is said to have around 3,000 missiles. Not all of them reach Israel, and many Iranian missile depots have already been destroyed in previous attacks. Israel is currently targeting missile bases and mobile launchers.
Hinz is convinced: “Iran cannot sustain large-scale attacks with 100 or 200 missiles in the long term.” In addition, evaluations by the CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) show that the number of projectiles fired at Israel has continuously decreased over the last five days.
In action for the first time: Iran fires Sejil medium-range missiles at Israel
For the first time under combat conditions – as far as remaining TEL launch vehicles are concerned – units of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards that are still operational have used the two-stage medium-range Sejil missile. At least three of these solid-fuel ballistic missiles were aimed at Israeli territory – apparently specifically at Haifa, the important base of the Israeli navy.
The Sejil was first tested in 2008 and, with its range of up to 2,000 kilometers, is currently considered the most powerful system in Iran’s missile arsenal. Although this maximum range was not necessary for the current attacks, the deployment clearly underlines the escalating dynamics of the open war between Iran and Israel.
